Where 2025's record stands: re-sort of OC list

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This list shows where the Nats stand in terms of games played to reach 19 wins ("matches" in OC's anglophile phrasing) in comparison to prior seasons. Green is above .500 and Red is below.

2016 - 4th May (27th match of season)
2017 - 4th May (28th match)
2012 - 10th May (31st match)
2010 - 12th May (34th match)
2013 - 9th May (34th match)
2014 - 7th May (34th match)
2015 - 13th May (35th match)
2005 - 14th May (36th match)
2018 - 7th May (36th match)
2024 -  10th May (37th match)
2011 - 15th May (40th match)
2021 - 22nd May (42nd match)
2008 - 18th May (45th match)
2019 - 18th May (45th match)
2023 - 20th May (46th match)
2025 - 16th May (46th match)
2007 - 24th May (48th match)
2006 - 25th May (48th match)
2020 - 18th September (49th match)
2022 - 3rd June (54th match)
2009 - 18th June (65th match)

A few observations:
1) you can see why there was a bit of optimism and talk about pushing for the playoffs in May of last year.
2) those two years at the top may say something about Dusty as a regular season manager. Same for Davey Johnson and that 3rd best record.
3) Riggleman probably had a right to be PO'd after that 2010 start.
4) 2021 had yet to really kick in. That would wait until June and Schwarber going supernova.

[varoadking]

OK...I confess...I don't get it... 

So this is when they had 19 wins like they do on May 16/17?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

OK...I confess...I don't get it... 

So this is when they had 19 wins like they do on May 16/17?

yes, so you do get it. They had 19 wins by game 27 of 2016, or a record of 19-8. That was their fastest by game to 19 wins.

N2P and I have discussed presenting the OC information this way because, barring strikes, rainouts not made up, and pandemixs, the schedule always has 162 games regardless of when the season starts, so it's a better comparable than record to date in the OC post. It's only the 16th, but it is one of the worst starts by games played. Only 2022 and 2009 are significantly slower, and we ended up with the worst record in baseball  both years.

[varoadking]

yes, so you do get it. They had 19 wins by game 27 of 2016, or a record of 19-8. That was their fastest by game to 19 wins.

N2P and I have discussed presenting the OC information this way because, barring strikes, rainouts not made up, and pandemixs, the schedule always has 162 games regardless of when the season starts, so it's a better comparable than record to date in the OC post. It's only the 16th, but it is one of the worst starts by games played. Only 2022 and 2009 are significantly slower, and we ended up with the worst record in baseball  both years.

I would agree...where in the schedule as opposed to where on the calendar makes a lot more sense when tracking the record.  I couldn't sort thru it initially because there was no reference to the current number (19) of wins...took me a senior moment...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I would agree...where in the schedule as opposed to where on the calendar makes a lot more sense when tracking the record.  I couldn't sort thru it initially because there was no reference to the current number (19) of wins...took me a senior moment...

nice catch. I added the bold to make the list make more sense. Thanks.

[HondoKillebrew]

I appreciate the homage to OC. It’s good to keep his memory alive. 

[imref]

Thanks for doing this JCA.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Was going to try to do this once a week, but we are at an interesting point in the schedule, which OC no doubt would have pronounced "shedjewel."

A sort of the season by number of games it took to reach 22 wins:

2017 - 10th May (34th match of season)
2016 - 13th May (35th match)
2012 - 14th May (35th match)
2015 - 17th May (39th match)
2005 - 18th May (40th match)
2018 - 11th May (40th match)
2013 - 16th May (41st match)
2014 - 16th May (41st match)
2010 - 22nd May (44th match)
2025 - 20th May (49th match)
2024 - 24th May (49th match)
2011 - 27th May (50th match)
2008 - 25th May (51st match)
2021 - 1st June (51st match)
2023- 26th May (51st match)
2019 - 26th May (53rd match)
2006 - 31st May (54th match)
2007 - 31st May (54th match)
2020 - 22nd September (54th match)
2022 - 10th June (60th match)
2009 - 25th June (71st match)

Green are the teams over .500 at this point, red are the ones below .500, and black is for 22-22.

As noted in the OC post in the GDT, only one team that got off to a slower start finished above .500 (2019), and only 2 teams that got off to a faster start finished .500 or worse (2005, 2010). 2011's team (Riggleman still) had cooled off after a strong start, while 2021 had not yet hit its June hot streak.

For all the good vibes of the 2023 beating expectations and the 2024 "should we go for the playoffs" talk, the Nats really haven't changed that much in terms of pace of wins in the whole 2021-2025 era, except for 2022 being significantly slower as we waited for the Soto/Bell deals coming out of the salary dump / short term patches of the 2021 deadline deals.

In terms of expected record, I still have expectations for the best record since 2019. I don't see the pieces likely to be dealt at the deadline as being as central as the ones dealt in 2021-2024. Of course, nothing comparable to Scherzer, Turner, Soto, younger Bell, Candelario. I'm not sure there's as important a piece as Harvey or Thomas or even Harrison, Gomes, or Hudson.

If they don't decide to deal Finny or Lowe, there's nothing significant to take out of this team. We're talking Soroka, Lopez, DeJong if healthy, and Bell. As for Lowe, he has another year of control, so he looks a bit like Thomas in 2023. Finnegan seems to be more valuable to the Nats than other teams. My expectation is that the players like Crews will improve with play (barring significant back problems) and House will take over at 3rd, where the level of play has not been great and even average play would be an improvement.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I won't do the full update until the weekend, but last night was a key game in Nats lore. Record through 50 games is now 23-27, which is better than the 50 game record for only one Nats team with a winning record. That team started 19-31 after a disastrous 29 game stretch from from 4/24-5/23/19 (8-21).

The record over the next month or so is something of a lynchpin for 4 seasons, with 3 teams hitting their highpoint and one starting to take off. 2005 got to 50-31 (7/3), while 2019 popped over .500 on game 81 (6/27). Two seasons hit their high marks on the 77th game. Last year, 2024, the Nats went 15-12 after their 50th game to get within 1 game of .500 on 6/23. Up to about that point, the team was close enough to wild card contention that there was talk about adding rather than subtracting (at least a fun discussion). In 2011, the team went on a 17-7 streak from 5/31 (54th game) to 6/24 to get to 2 games over .500. The last game of that streak was under John McLaren, the temporary manager after Riggleman walked out for not getting extended.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

55 games in for team 2025, or a game past the 1/3 mark of the season.  I've sorted below by how many games it took to record the 25th win. Green are the above .500 teams, red are the below .500, and the .500 team (2005, 2014) are in black
 
2017 - 16th May (38th match of season)
2016 - 19th May (41st match)
2012 - 21st May (42nd match)
2015 - 22nd May (42nd match)
2018 - 21st May (47th match)
2013 - 24th May (48th match)
2010 - 28th May (49th match)
2014 - 25th May (50th match)
2005 - 29th May (50th match)
2024 - 29th May (54th match)
2025 - 28th May (55th match)
2011 - 2nd June (56th match)
2023 - 2nd June (57th match)
2006 - 4th June (57th match)
2021 - 9th June (58th match)
2019 - 1st June (58th match)
2020 - 26th September (59th match)
2008 - 5th June (61st match)
2007 - 8th June (61st match)
2022 - 21st June (71st match)
2009 - 5th July (80th match)

The 2005, 2011, and 2021 teams all had hot Junes or early Junes that put them close to (or above) .500. 2014 team came on strong late in the season to be one of the best (I would argue the most talented) teams of the successful era.

[imref]

wow, 55 games into the season already.