Some observations about the 3 games the Nats have in Toronto while wondering if Taco Bell has made it to Canada.
So who is Bowden Francis? Tonight's starter is a lower round draft pick who finally stuck in the majors last year and is now a month short of his 29th birthday. When he finally became a starter for good last year, he impressed over 9 starts and 59 innings (8/7 to the end of the season), with improved command and K/BB - 56/7 or 8:1
Fly ball prone (51%:34%), he lowered his HR/FB to under 10%, which is good. Throws 3 types of fastballs - a 4 seam about 50% of the time, a splitter about a quarter of the time, and an occasional sinker (5%) per Statcast. 20% breaking balls that statcast divides evenly between curves and sliders. By movement, they look like distinct pitches, so it is unlikely to be an artifact of them not being able to classify the breaking ball properly. The curve was his least effective pitch. 4 seam and sinker were around low 90s, sinker and slider were low 80s, and the curve 73.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bowden-francis/20548/game-log?position=P&gds=2024-08-06&gde=2024-10-31&season=&type=10After Francis, the Jays will send two more better-known starters to the mound, Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman. Other than a weird 2022, Berrios has been a stud for his entire 8 season career. An innings horse with mid-3s ERAs (again, throw out 2022) who suppresses BBs, FIP did not like him last year because he was a bit homer prone (1.45/9) and had an abnormally low BABIP (.256) and strand % (81%). Was the opening day starter and a victim of 3 Baltimore HRs in 5 IP, along with BABIP's revenge (.429). 2 primary pitches are a sinker and a curve (60%) with a change and 4 seam for most of the rest. As for Gausman, he became consistently outstanding after he moved to SFG in 2020. Showed signs of slippage last year as his K/9 dropped from 10+ the previous 5 season down to 8 K/9. Helped some by low HR rates and barrel rates even though his launch angle increased. Could perhaps be showing some signs of age as he is 34+. Gausman dominated the Nats for 5.1 IP last year, getting 8 Ks while allowing 3 hits and 2 BBs in a win.
Soroka gets the start tonight, followed by Williams (who draws Berrios) and Gore.
Blue Jays platoon at 3 positions (3rd, CF, and LF). Alan Roden, a lefty bat, hits 9th, cracks the top 100 on FG at #82, may be more than a platoon bat. From FG's top 100 post spring training:
The way Roden’s hands work causes his bat path to be flat, which really lets him cover the top of the strike zone. It results in Roden making some concessions against well-located breaking stuff at the bottom of the zone, which he often drove into the ground last year. He’s dipping deeper into his lower body against those pitches this spring, giving him a better chance to do damage against them. Multiple scouts I spoke with have everyday grades on Roden based on their looks this spring.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/post-spring-training-top-100-prospects-update/I'll toss in that he's had nearly a 1:1 BB/K ratio in the minors, with fair power (16 in the upper minors last year).
The more stable part of the order seems weighted towards the top, with Bo Bichette, Vlad Jr. (no pun intended), and Santander. Gimenez oddly bats clean up without much of a power history.
