MacKenzie Gore Vidal Sassoon (2025): May Your Stuff Rule Your Fate

[JCA-CrystalCity]

When Gore is described as “electric,” as he sometimes is, it’s a nod to his fastball. That heater averaged 96 mph a year ago, tied for the fastest by a qualified starter in Nationals history, per FanGraphs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/03/28/mackenzie-gore-nats-opening-day-start/
So, Stras the fastest? Scherzer?

The article spends most of the time talking about getting his breaking ball over for a strike on the first pitch of an AB, especially the sweeper on the last batter he faced. That's to get hitters off his fastball, which he threw 50+% of the time last year and which had a .659 SLG.

I will paste in the Paul Storer discussion from his FG progfile of the Nats rotation later.

[imref]

One of the commentators noted that last year he was throwing upper 90's in the first inning, with control problems. Yesterday he was down to about 96 and had much better control.

[GataNats]

He was pumping 98 regularly yesterday

[JCA-CrystalCity]

From the Storer write up ranking rotations:

Gore enjoyed his best season yet (3.2 WAR) despite a 1.42 WHIP, so just imagine if he can actually cut into his base runner volume. As a flamethrowing lefty, it’ll likely come via cutting into his BABIP as opposed to his walk rate; he has improved the latter each of the last two seasons, but barring a substantial change to the way he pitches, 8-9% feels like the ceiling there. His BABIP, however, hasn’t seen the south side of .300 in his three seasons and was all the way up at .340 last year! Part of that is the infield defenders behind him, but part of it is his penchant for allowing line drives. Among the 74 pitchers with at least 350 IP during his career, he has a major league-worst 24% line drive rate despite an arsenal that’s too good to keep getting pieced up like that. Gore is still figuring it out, but when he does, there is a 4-plus-WAR season in this arm.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

From the Post's piece on his opening day start:

When Gore gets ahead, hitters post a .190 average and .278 slugging percentage, both above MLB-average marks. Trusting those breaking pitches could help him. He also threw his four-seamer 57.7 percent of the time in 0-0 counts last year, and hitters posted a .659 slugging percentage against it. (The MLB-average slugging percentage on 0-0 fastballs is .580.)

Just eight of Gore’s 18 0-0 pitches Thursday were fastballs. Every single one was in or around the zone. A subtle and small sample — but significant.

“I think to be able to steal strikes would definitely help him,” Nationals Manager Dave Martinez said this spring before Gore’s back-field start. “Not many hitters are going to sit up there looking for a breaking ball with him first pitch.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/03/28/mackenzie-gore-nats-opening-day-start/

The 13Ks, no walks, shutout over 6 innings has only been done once before, by Bob Gibson in 1967. Cardinals reference. Drink.

[Smithian]

When do we let ourselves declare him a #1?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

When do we let ourselves declare him a #1?

when he goes 6+ of shutout ball with 10+ Ks 4 times.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mackenzie-gore-kicked-major-butt-on-opening-day/

Baumann didn't need his great way with words in this one because he just let the numbers and video speak for itself.  I'll pick and choose some of his points. He acknowledges last year he wrote about Gore becoming a solid mid-rotation starter after being hyped as more when he was coming up. That was the setup for his major point, which was how Gore's start was the best among several notable performances on Opening Day.

Noting that only 10 pitchers have struck out 13 batters or more on Opening Day, the day where you get more top of the rotation pitchers throwing than any other:

The only Opening Day starter to strike out as many or more batters in six or fewer innings was Shane Bieber, who K’d 14 Royals on Opening Day 2020. Bieber’s performance is also the only other one of the 10 13-plus-strikeout Opening Day starts to come in the 21st Century. So if you knew nothing about Gore’s performance other than his strikeout total, you’d know enough to be impressed.

He was particularly wowed by the slider Gore threw to lefties. 10 sliders, 8 swing and misses and a popout and a foul.

More on swing and misses and strike throwing:

All told, Gore got 20 whiffs on 50 swings out of 93 total pitches. There’s not too much to compare that to so far this year, so let’s go back to 2024, when there were 4,983 individual pitcher outings of 50 pitches or more between the regular season and playoffs. Out of those nearly 5,000 outings, Gore’s Opening Day start would’ve been tied for 108th in ratio of whiffs to total pitches — that’s the top 2.2% of the sample. Change the denominator to called strikes plus whiffs and the results are about the same — Gore’s start would’ve been in the top 2.4%.

He points out how ideal pitching has batters laying off pitches in the strike zone and swinging at pitches out of the zone.

in 2024, the league-wide Z-Swing% was 66.0% and the league-wide O-Swing% was 28.6%.

Now, I’ll concede that the Phillies are one of the more aggressive teams in the league, and the shadows, and Opening Day jitters, and all that. But Gore threw 55% of his pitches in the zone, with a Z-Swing% of 65% and an O-Swing% of 40%. That’s the third-smallest gap of any outing in Gore’s career.

Wouldn't be a Baumann article without one good line. He mentions the only drinking game for 4:05 PM stars is to drink whenever an announcer mentions shadows.

I get a feeling that there's a contingent of baseball analysts and talent evaluators that are betting pretty heavily on a Gore breakout.

[imref]

https://www.si.com/mlb/nationals/news/nationals-ace-powers-his-way-into-pitcher-power-rankings-after-stellar-start

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sure would be nice if he had a sidekick in the rotation

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2025-edition/

Szym says the time to sign Gore is now, with 2 seasons of control remaining. Suggests 6 years, $123 million.

The Nationals aren’t contenders yet, but when you look at their offensive core, you see the fuzzy edges of a lineup that will get Washington back to playing October baseball. While the rotation has actually been surprisingly solid so far this season, pitchers like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker are overperforming their peripheral numbers, and we can’t bank on either of them to be a true ace. MacKenzie Gore, on the other hand, has peripherals that are even better than his excellent early-season stats — and he currently leads the league in strikeouts. That’s no fluke, either, as hitters simply aren’t making much contact against the former first-rounder. Gore’s 66.3% contact rate, if maintained, would be the 11th-best number among ERA qualifiers over the last decade, just behind former teammate Patrick Cor… OK, let’s stop that sentence before it gets dark. That Gore has two more years of cost control remaining gives the Nats an opportunity to absorb some risk on the injury front in order to get a better deal for a pitcher who looks like he’ll get rather expensive in a couple of years.

[imref]

Two years left of Gore, three of Abrams. Team has some decisions to make.

[IanRubbish]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2025-edition/

Szym says the time to sign Gore is now, with 2 seasons of control remaining. Suggests 6 years, $123 million.

I could see Boras asking for a lot more than that.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I could see Boras asking for a lot more than that.

sure. But this would be fair value now

[zimm_da_kid]

What is that? Essentially his first4 FA years at $25m per assuming he gets around $10m and $15m the next two yeas in arb? Seems light, especially given that he’d be going into his age 33 season when he finally hits fa.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What is that? Essentially his first4 FA years at $25m per assuming he gets around $10m and $15m the next two yeas in arb? Seems light, especially given that he’d be going into his age 33 season when he finally hits fa.

This is his first year he's in the conversation as an "ace," which is just a small sample size, and he's not a free agent until after 2027. Compare it to Crochet's deal, which was a year closer to free agency for 6 years years, $170 million, starting his last year of team control.

[IanRubbish]

Source of Gore's high pitch counts seems to be the high whiff rate combined with a high hard hit rate.  Unusual to see those two together.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mackenzie-gore-669022?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[nobleisthyname]

I have to imagine that unless ownership gives whoever the new GM is an open checkbook to make the team competitive starting next season that Gore is almost certainly going to be traded now. The new GM won't have any attachment to the Soto trade pieces and he just doesn't match the Nationals window anymore.

[English Natsie]

According to nats.com, 'Nationals anticipate coming-out party for Gore, at ASG...' Hmm...might have been worded rather better...    

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Red Sox have plenty of prospects and are looking to add pitching toward the deadline.

[Slateman]

Red Sox have plenty of prospects and are looking to add pitching toward the deadline.

Doubt they are willing to part with them in a post-Devers world

[imref]

They’ve been better without Devers.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Doubt they are willing to part with them in a post-Devers world

actually, they have the Crochet model for a Gore deal. They may want to unpack the OF. Duran might be moved to make room for Anthony, but Duran has the years of control problem. Abreu has more years of control but I think the Nats would want to lineup minor leaguers whose timeline aligns more with Wood Crews House. Maybe Jhostnyxon Garcia could be a piece. Payton Tolle as a AA pitcher.

[Slateman]

actually, they have the Crochet model for a Gore deal. They may want to unpack the OF. Duran might be moved to make room for Anthony, but Duran has the years of control problem. Abreu has more years of control but I think the Nats would want to lineup minor leaguers whose timeline aligns more with Wood Crews House. Maybe Jhostnyxon Garcia could be a piece. Payton Tolle as a AA pitcher.

I believe Crochet had one less year of control left.

I dont see why we'd want an outfielder. Certainly not Abreu. Not as the main piece, anyway. Not sure I'd want him at all to be honest.

I assume Anthony is untouchable. So do we want to build a deal around Campbell or Mayer?  Maybe get them to add Casas and a pitching prospect (Connelly Early)

Or maybe a three team trade. Jarren Duran to the Padres for Ethan Salas, then Salas, Casas, Arias, another pitching prospect for Gore and Ruiz.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Payton Tolle is pretty close to the majors and a "50"
 He's and Early are close on lists.

I would like some players who are no later than 2026 in mlb to try to build a contender while Wood, Crews, and House are here. 2027-2030 being the window.

There's no great precedent for moving Gore right now. Why I point to Crochet is I think he was regarded as a better pitcher with fewer years of control. For Crochet, the Sox moved Teel, Montgomery, and a reliever who debuted tail end of last year
 For Gore, that could be Campbell, Tibbs, plus ...

I like the thought of getting SD involved. They are supposed to be after Duran, who is the OF they're most likely to move.

Campbell may be a corner OF. Reminds me a little of CJ in that they were both highly ranked but had less than stellar debuts.