Author Topic: Reality bites - Break up the 2024 Juggernaut  (Read 8789 times)

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Online welch

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Re: Re: Injuries 2024
« Reply #25 on: May 21, 2024, 09:51:06 am »
No one seems to be addressing Rainey. He is not being used except in mop -up situations and is failing miserably. Does he have any options left? If the Nats DFA him what team would put in a claim and could they send him down rather than keep him on the 26 man. The Nats are now rostering two useless players in Nunez and Rainey.


Three useless players: Robles, Nunez, and Rainey. Send Nunez back to Miami. DFA Rainey and Robles to Rochester or Harrisburg.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: Injuries 2024
« Reply #26 on: May 21, 2024, 10:26:17 am »
No one seems to be addressing Rainey. He is not being used except in mop -up situations and is failing miserably. Does he have any options left? If the Nats DFA him what team would put in a claim and could they send him down rather than keep him on the 26 man. The Nats are now rostering two useless players in Nunez and Rainey.

What happens when Gray comes back from his re-hab? Does he go to the rotation and it becomes a 6 man or is Williams traded? If it isn't a 6 man who goes to the BP?
They gave some excuse for not pitching Rainey for 2 weeks then pitching him on Sunday. I forget what it was. On the plus side, he hit 95. But everything else is a minus. I suspect / hope he's DFA'd when Gray is activated. It's possible that Irvin or Parker gets sent down to save some innings from them (allow for a  few short starts for Rochester), but Rainey could be waived and outrighted to Rochester if he's not claimed. At this point, I don't see anyone claiming him. He lacks options, and can't pitch at the MLB level.

Another move will be needed when Thomas is activated. That's probably when they'll pull the trigger on Robles. There is just no way on Earth they could consider sending Jacob Young down, and neither Nunez nor Vargas can be sent down. There's no other optionable guy other than your backup catcher or your best player, CJ. It's got to be Robles.

Once Gray is active, they have a few possibilities:
1) 6 man rotation, 7 man bullpen (DFA Rainey to do this and outright him after he clears waivers);
2) Send out Irvin or Parker to manage their innings (not really needed, I/M/O; they both can go 140-150);
3) DFA Rainey, move a starter (Corbin? Parker? Irvin?) to the bullpen and keep a 5 man rotation; or
4) Pull the trigger on a Williams deal.

As for Nunez, that's not really going to be an issue related to injuries.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Reality bites - Break up the 2025 Juggernaut
« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2024, 12:43:09 pm »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-you-cant-trade-your-newfound-reliever-for-a-shiny-prospect/#comments

Article here is about the general idea that you can trade a recently hot reliever  for a top 100 prospect at the trade deadline, and Ben Clemens throws cold water on it. However, he seems to have stepped in it a bit when he mentioned Hunter Harvey in particular. Several commenters, not just Nats fan boys like us, point out Harvey has had a pretty good track record for a few years now in high leverage, and that he really does not fit the model.

The suggestion is while Finnegan's recent awesomeness, as well as Floro's lower lev performance, might be viewed skeptically, Harvey will be the one who will go at a premium.

Easy way to find the Harvey discussion in the comments is to go to the article, expand the comments, and then search for "Harvey."

Offline Slateman

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Re: Reality bites - Break up the 2025 Juggernaut
« Reply #28 on: May 25, 2024, 06:41:28 pm »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-you-cant-trade-your-newfound-reliever-for-a-shiny-prospect/#comments



FG gonna have to eat their words when Finnegan + Floro brings back Dustin Harris and Marc Church, and Harvey gets the Yankees' Lalane and Beeter

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Reality bites - Break up the 2025 Juggernaut
« Reply #29 on: May 25, 2024, 07:46:27 pm »
the funny thing about Floro is that he's had a pretty consistent FIP for since 2018, never topping 3.56, and that outlier was back in 2019. Other than that, it's topped out at 3.13. Last year's 4.76 ERA was in large part due to a .401 BABIP. He's getting help this year a bit for his .246 BABIP, but you'd figure smart teams would discount the ERA this year and last and just view him as a decent set up guy with good ground ball rates and pretty consistently suppressing homers.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Reality bites - Break up the 2025 Juggernaut
« Reply #30 on: May 25, 2024, 10:10:58 pm »
FG gonna have to eat their words when Finnegan + Floro brings back Dustin Harris and Marc Church, and Harvey gets the Yankees' Lalane and Beeter

I’m in love with Lalane as a prospect.  If he has pictures like darvish did in Japan, I’d make them my avatar

Massive body (6’7”) at least 55 control already and going to be sitting mid 90s with that body easy.

Offline Slateman

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I really wonder what Lane's value is? He had a stellar first half last year, but fell off in the second half. He had a rough first month this season, but has been scorching since coming back.

I also think he's hitting too high in the order. He's down in. He's a 5 or 6 hitter in a good lineup.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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I really wonder what Lane's value is? He had a stellar first half last year, but fell off in the second half. He had a rough first month this season, but has been scorching since coming back.

I also think he's hitting too high in the order. He's down in. He's a 5 or 6 hitter in a good lineup.
that's probably right. He hits that high because of the absence of better hitters in this lineup.

Offline Slateman

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I just dont know who is giving up the value Rizzo would want for Lane Thomas. Though maybe Rizzo is willing to take less/younger returns.

Vargas and Thomas to the Dodgers for Jackson Ferris and another piece?

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Unfortunately Lane is only useful, albeit really useful, against lefties.  He’s a short-side platoon guy.  How much are you giving up for a guy to mash the occasional lefty?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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One issue with the "let's break up the juggernaut" approach is I think a few of these guys are more valuable to the Nats than in trade.

For the Nats, Thomas is a regular. He hits righties well enough to play against them, even if he's only be a short side platoon bat in a lineup that had a lefty hitter who was vulnerable to same handed pitching.

I think here Vargas is a super utility guy compensating for lefties and righties who can't hit same-handed pitching (Garcia, Senzel) and pinch hitting when contact not power is all that's needed. A better team may think there's not enough pop there to use him that way.

Finny of course would be a set up guy or a 7th inning guy for a team with a killer closer. Floro and Law would be 5th or 6th guys in short bullpens. Harvey is in the right role, but how much do you pay for a set up guy?

Online welch

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Trade the obvious guys, like Winker and Harvey. Floro might go, since he would be a rental, assuming the Nats get a persuasive offifer. Maybe keep some of the others. Thomas might also be a keeper, at least until next season or until he turns down a reespectable extension. The Nats could do well with an OF of Wood, Young, Thomas, and Crews, rotating Wood or Thomas to DH, as the Yankess did with Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui in 2009.

Senzel mostly plays a decent 3B and can hit. But if a team offers something useful, then be happy with Vargas at 3B. Ildy is OK, and maybe House will become the Real Thing.

Svrluga says the Nats are the 2022 Baltimore team, and suggests tradin nearly everybody: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/06/25/nationals-trade-deadline-mike-rizzo/

Luckily for Nats fans, Rizzo is an ace when he trades. Who else can he steal from the Padres?


Offline Slateman

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Unfortunately Lane is only useful, albeit really useful, against lefties.  He’s a short-side platoon guy.  How much are you giving up for a guy to mash the occasional lefty?
Im sorry, but 3 WAR outfielders are not "short side platoon" starters. Even with his splits, he's an everyday player, albeit on a budget conscious team or a desperate one.

Offline Slateman

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One issue with the "let's break up the juggernaut" approach is I think a few of these guys are more valuable to the Nats than in trade.

For the Nats, Thomas is a regular. He hits righties well enough to play against them, even if he's only be a short side platoon bat in a lineup that had a lefty hitter who was vulnerable to same handed pitching.

I think here Vargas is a super utility guy compensating for lefties and righties who can't hit same-handed pitching (Garcia, Senzel) and pinch hitting when contact not power is all that's needed. A better team may think there's not enough pop there to use him that way.

Finny of course would be a set up guy or a 7th inning guy for a team with a killer closer. Floro and Law would be 5th or 6th guys in short bullpens. Harvey is in the right role, but how much do you pay for a set up guy?
At this point Finnegan and Harvey are seen as high leverage relievers. You'd have to have a pretty spectacular closer and setup to bump Harvey or Finn to the 7th inning.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Im sorry, but 3 WAR outfielders are not "short side platoon" starters. Even with his splits, he's an everyday player, albeit on a budget conscious team or a desperate one.

I’m sorry, but that is exactly why the market for him is underwhelming and why he wasn’t traded last year when his numbers were at their peak.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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I’m sorry, but that is exactly why the market for him is underwhelming and why he wasn’t traded last year when his numbers were at their peak.
well, last year at the deadline he was seen as a half season fluke. He'll have another year of showing he is a better than average full time player to back up his value.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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well, last year at the deadline he was seen as a half season fluke. He'll have another year of showing he is a better than average full time player to back up his value.

He’s been hot, but he hasn’t to date raised his trade value this year.  It’s a year less control and he is sitting at a .717 OPS.  He’s a decent player, but I’d say his value is probably slightly less than a year ago at this time.

Offline Slateman

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Sell


And, after tonight, I was wrong about Ruiz. You're going to have include a prospect to trade him.  He finishes out the season as the backup, trade him in the offseason, sign Danny Jansen.

Online IanRubbish

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And, after tonight, I was wrong about Ruiz. You're going to have include a prospect to trade him.  He finishes out the season as the backup, trade him in the offseason, sign Danny Jansen.

No one is trading for a catcher who hits a soft .200, can't throw runners out, and is going to be overpaid through 2030.  Ruiz is going nowhere. 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Sell
That’s what I’ve been saying. 

Offline rileyn

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Sell.  Smartly.  Do not buy the fools gold of being in the mix for a WC. 


Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Reality bites - Break up the 2024 Juggernaut
« Reply #47 on: June 26, 2024, 08:33:10 am »
bump.

Offline sixthree175

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Re: Reality bites - Break up the 2024 Juggernaut
« Reply #48 on: June 27, 2024, 02:51:51 am »
2024 is a "head fake" season for the Nats.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Reality bites - Break up the 2024 Juggernaut
« Reply #49 on: June 27, 2024, 03:02:23 am »
San Diego is where the playoff dreams of marginal Nats teams go to die.