This is a a GataNats inspired thread. His persistent questioning of why play a vet like Vargas brings out the issue of who should be playing in the infield down the stretch, particularly 2nd and 3rd.
Assume that CJ gets the bulk of the playing time at SS due to his performance and the expectation that he's the team's SS going forward. It's probably worth discussing 1st base, too, but that is a separate group of players (Dom, Joey, Riley Adams, Ruiz, Travis Blankenhorn, Chavis, maybe some others).
As for 2nd and 3rd, the players are pretty much a mix of Vargas, Alu, Chavis, Downs, and probably Baker at some point. They offer a mix of steadiness, upside, defensive skill, and current offensive performance. Right now, it looks like Alu is getting the primary look at 2nd while Vargas is playing most of the time at 3rd.
Vargas is doing very much Vargas things - a vet filling in for another vet who is no longer on the team after the trade deadline (Franco last year, Candy this year), providing above-average defense (positive UZR/150, OAA, DRS, etc...), not striking out, providing below average pop for a 3rd baseman. Last year, he steadied the infield, which helped the pitching down the stretch, and he's pretty much doing the same. His average and OBP are down, due mostly to really bad BABIP (.240) that, even by his below-average career rate (.279 in his years with the most playing time, ,259 overall) is low. If one of the big goals of this year is to develop the young pitching, he probably helps them by making plays; he may also help CJ a bit by taking care of some balls at the fringe of his range. However, if the goal is to see whether we have some team-controlled pieces for future competitive teams, playing him at 3rd means one of Alu, Chavis, or Downs is on the bench, two if Baker is up and playing.
Downs is probably the easiest to pass over based on track record, but would it be absurd to say he has the most upside of all the others? Is he a guy you feed playing time to after every successful appearance? It'd be crazy if he could somehow establish himself at the MLB level. I'm a huge skeptic.
Baker is a couple of years younger than Alu (and Kieboom) and 3 years younger than Chavis. Since the start of 2022, Baker has had at least 190 PAs at 3 levels (Wilmington, Harrisburg, and Rochester), with a batting average ranging from .273 to .290. Currently he's .282 for the year and at .261 since returning to AAA on 7/7. Subpar power (ISO <.100 at those 3 levels). Walks around average, K% < 20%. Has been exposed to left field this year but is primarily a 2nd baseman. The FG review of his defense is pretty neutral:
He is already a mixed bag at second base, with below-average hands, arm strength, and slow-twitch athleticism, relying on his elegant body control and predictably great on-field awareness to succeed. Baker will make some highlight reel plays because of his effort and acrobatic flare, but he’s an average overall defender.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-31-prospects-2023/ Needs to be added to the 40 man roster this off-season. Lots of praise for his contact skills and low swinging strikes in the same article.
Alu might be the least "toolsy" of the bunch. He's getting the bulk of the PT at 2nd now. He's 26 this year. While he showed a bit of pop last year in the minors, it was mostly gone in 2023 AAA. Really good contact skills and decent walk rate in the minors that has not shown up in the majors yet. Being groomed as a 3 position utility guy.
Chavis is the oldest of the group at 27. He's had almost 1200 PAs in the majors (more than Vargas, who is 4 years older). Homer every 30 PAs is his track record, with a low average, near 30% K&, and below average BBs. Not a bad baserunner, has played 1st as well. Unlike Downs, Alu, and Baker, he has 3+ years of service time and therefore is arb eligible.
My inclination at this point would be to continue to play Alu and probably play Vargas. There's no upside to Chavis, and if there were a need to create roster space, he'd be the one I'd say bye to. There's a Baker fan club here, and I definitely want to add him to the 40 man roster this off-season, but I also think he might benefit from more time in the high minors. Adding some strength might give him a little extra pop. I'd also play him some in left field, which he can do in AAA. That leaves Downs. Kid has gotten more breaks than his performance probably deserves, but if I were to take playing time from Vargas, I'd probably play Downs at 2nd and Alu at his natural position, 3rd base. I don't think the defense would suffer much, which is a big chunk of why Vargas is playing. I more or less want to see if this is a guy worthy of keeping in the system. I would sacrifice a few wins to see whether something clicks. To me, he's a little like Garrett in that you dole out more playing time as he succeeds.
