Right now, we can safely pencil in 3 of the 5 SP with Gray, Gore, and Corbin. Will Rizzo be given a greenlight to sign a significant free agent? In recent years we've given major long-term money to 3 SP: Max, Stras, and Corbin. Max has been said to be one of the greatest free agent signings of all-time. We all know what has happened to Stras since he opted out and got his new deal, and of course Corbin was really good through the World Series and then terrible, although not due to any injury. So one guy stayed (mostly) healthy and performed at a HOF level, another guy had a career-ending injury, and another guy gave value then fell off a cliff while still in what should've been his prime years and not due to any unfortunate injury. So, it's risky to invest in these guys.
I prefer what the Braves have done in spending their money locking up their young position players, then mixing in short-term vet SP deals like Morton in with their homegrown SP. Morton signed last October for 20 mill for this year and a 20 mill option for 2024. I think we should look for a similar deal. With a lack of established workhorse SP, this eats innings, pushes us further to contending in the next year or 2, gives us a potential trade chip if we aren't contending, and bridges to when we're really expecting to compete and can then see where we are with our rotation and if at that time we need to go out and sign a big-time free agent or trade from our emerging farm system.
1. Gray - Gray is arbitration eligible in 2025, so at 25 currently, we have him locked up through his prime years. He's been durable thus far, and has taken a major step forward this year to the prospect ranking we expected when we got him from the Dodgers. I'm not sure if he has true #1 or #2 "Ace" ability on a contender, but he could get there, and at minimum should be a solid #3/4.
2. Gore - Finishing this season healthy and getting to the point he can make 30 -32 starts and 175+ IP would be a big win. He's flashed his potential, and hopefully makes a big leap forward in 2024. He was once arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball, and we kind of got him as a throw in in the Soto deal. Gore is just 24 and, like Gray, is arbitration eligible in 2025. We have 2 rotation stalwarts locked up through their mid to late 20s, which is what you want.
3. Corbin - Corbin has done one thing well since the World Series in 2019, and that's take the ball every turn and eat innings. At least this season he's managed to keep his ERA under 5 and not be the worst SP in baseball. He'll start the season in the rotation next year, and depending on Cavalli's return in the Summer and the development/health of other SPs, we'll see what becomes of him in the last season of his deal. Could he find a way to stay in the big leagues a few more years by becoming a lefty out the bullpen ala the 2019 postseason? Will the Nats try him in the bullpen at some point and see if he can either help us if we're in the Wild Card race, or audition him for a contender at the deadline? Do we pick up most of his remaining pro-rated salary and hope to find another Lane Thomas in return?
If nobody else is acquired, and even if they are, Williams should have 1 of the remaining 2 spots, at least to start the year. I'd like to see him eventually move to the bullpen as a swing guy, because to me he's just a less durable (track record) version of Corbin as a starter. He's making 7 mill next year before he hits free agency, so he's basically a much less expensive version of Corbin as a potential trade chip or someone we keep in our bullpen if needed and we're contending.
Who else currently in the system could grab a spot? Right now the leader has to be Irvin based on him already making 18 starts this year and being similarly mediocre to Corbin/Williams. He's 26, and wasn't a top prospect, just a 4th round pick out of Oklahoma in 2018 that gives you controllable organizational depth. I don't see the greatest upside, so he's likely at some point pushed out of the rotation as a spare part. But for now, he can be somewhat serviceable.
Adon is a guy I see upside for...as a reliever. He can compete for a rotation spot next Spring, but I think I'd rather see him develop out of the bullpen with the big club than continue to start in AAA.
The prospect that should be getting close is Rutledge. He's 24, and was picked 17th in the 1st round in 2019. 6'8" guys like him can take longer to develop. His 12 AA starts this year were good, but his 8 AAA starts have been mediocre. He doesn't look ready yet, but next year is the time for him to stake a claim in the rotation of the future.
Then of course Cavalli will be back at some point next Summer.
If nobody is acquired, I'd like to see this rotation next Summer:
Gray
Gore
Cavalli
Rutledge
Irvin
We really need to start building the pitching depth in the system. Jake Bennett (2022 2nd Round pick) is the only real prospect besides Rutledge yet to debut that we could see in 2024. I think Herz ends up in the bullpen next year at some point. Sykora and Susana are just 19. Can Henry emerge? Am I missing anybody of note?
