Nats lock up Ruiz

[varoadking]

Fangraphs projects the Nationals to be 27th in catcher WAR this year (using a 50/50 mix of Steamer and ZiPS). Here's what they have to say about Ruiz.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

Our projections think Ruiz can hit like he did in 2023 and catch like he did in 2024.

I think I'm gonna win Mega Millions this year.  It hasn't worked out to this point, but I project that 2025 is the year...

[IanRubbish]

Right near the bottom in both pop time and catcher throwing the last two seasons.  2nd biggest beneficiary of Mini Me and Rizzo's play-the-contract philosophy after Patrick Corbin.


https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-throwing?game_type=Regular&n=q&season_end=2023&season_start=2023&split=no&team=&type=Cat&with_team_only=1&target_base=All

[Smithian]

Right near the bottom in both pop time and catcher throwing the last two seasons.  2nd biggest beneficiary of Mini Me and Rizzo's play-the-contract philosophy after Patrick Corbin.


https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-throwing?game_type=Regular&n=q&season_end=2023&season_start=2023&split=no&team=&type=Cat&with_team_only=1&target_base=All

Keibert Ruiz competes with Riley Adams and Drew Millas. Neither has earned the spot over him.

[varoadking]

Right near the bottom in both pop time and catcher throwing the last two seasons.  2nd biggest beneficiary of Mini Me and Rizzo's play-the-contract philosophy after Patrick Corbin.


https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-throwing?game_type=Regular&n=q&season_end=2023&season_start=2023&split=no&team=&type=Cat&with_team_only=1&target_base=All

Yup...which means they won't look to upgrade at catcher until he's gone...if then...

[IanRubbish]

Keibert Ruiz competes with Riley Adams and Drew Millas. Neither has earned the spot over him.

They’re all about the same, but Millas has never been given a shot.  Either way, a team that wants to win addresses the fact that it’s been near the bottom in throwing out runners the last two seasons.  But Mini Me and Rizzo put sunk costs over winning and urgency.

[imref]

4th in the NL in OPS in this young season.

[IanRubbish]

4th in the NL in OPS in this young season.

Cue the "M-V-P" chants next home stand

[Slateman]

Sub 2 second pop time this season

[imref]

Feeling a lot better about this extension. 

[IanRubbish]

Feeling a lot better about this extension.

M-V-P!

[IanRubbish]

We'll see how he does defensively as the season goes on, but I figured he'd back in the low 7's in OPS this year.  Maybe he'll end up better, seems like at some point he might have tuned out Darnell.

[welch]

Seems solid. Improving with experience.

[imref]

Ruiz finally got to play in front of his parents

https://www.federalbaseball.com/2025/5/23/24435853/keibert-ruiz-story-shows-power-of-baseball

[Natsinpwc]

Ruiz finally got to play in front of his parents

https://www.federalbaseball.com/2025/5/23/24435853/keibert-ruiz-story-shows-power-of-baseball

That’s a great story.  It’s really tough for most of these Latin American guys. 

[Slateman]

Nats should give his parents a suite

[IanRubbish]

Nats should give his parents a suite

While I'm not a fan of how much playing time Ruiz gets, it was great to see how happy his family was. 

[Smithian]

Nats should give his parents a suite

They were in the most expensive luxury seating in park. They were not exactly slumming it. We don’t know their seat preference. Even the owner sat down there before health issues.

[nobleisthyname]

After his hot start Ruiz is quietly settling into his third straight sub-replacement level season. He's at -0.1 fWAR as of today. OPS is below .700 and his defense and base running are again some of the worst in the league.

[Slateman]

After his hot start Ruiz is quietly settling into his third straight sub-replacement level season. He's at -0.1 fWAR as of today. OPS is below .700 and his defense and base running are again some of the worst in the league.

bWAR is at 0.6

His expected stats indicate he's getting somewhat unlucky at the plate. But defensively he us still amongst the worst in baseball. Offensively he is not good.

[nobleisthyname]

bWAR is at 0.6

His expected stats indicate he's getting somewhat unlucky at the plate. But defensively he us still amongst the worst in baseball. Offensively he is not good.

bWAR doesn't factor in framing whatsoever, so it will tend to overrate catchers like Ruiz. His xStats suggest Ruiz is getting somewhat unlucky, but not egregiously so. He has a .307 wOBA vs an xwOBA of .318.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I would have rather we traded for Austin Barnes in 2021. How did we end up with the one catcher out of the Dodger system who is not mlb level?

The next couple years will be Waiting for Lomavita.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

doing a little sorting on the FG site for players who have had more than 30 PAs as a catcher, Ruiz's offense actually is middle of the pack. 95 wRC+ ranks 34th out of 63. This captures the backup catchers.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&season=2025&season1=2025&ind=0&qual=30&type=8&month=35&pagenum=2&pageitems=30&sortcol=17&sortdir=default

Using a 90 PA cut to capture guys who essentially are splitting time (like Drake Baldwin and Luis Torrens), he's 24th out of 33.  It's been pointed out that this is a good year for hitting catchers. Defensively, using that 90 PA list, he's 2nd to last. 

He's spot on replacement level when he plays catcher (the negative fWAR overall is probably due to an occasional PH and maybe an appearance at DH?).

Let's put it this way - 3 years into an 8-year deal, he can be pushed aside if we develop even a middling catcher in Lomavita. Many teams have 2 better catchers.

[Smithian]

It was a good contract extension. We need to applaud good FO behavior. They signed him early and meant when he went bust, it wasn't a team crippling mistake. However, if he busted out a top 10 offensive season, we'd have had a bargain.

Keibert Ruiz isn't the reason the Nationals have struggled. And as JCA said, if this team was winning in next few season, his salary isn't keeping Nats from reducing his role.

[IanRubbish]

I would have rather we traded for Austin Barnes in 2021. How did we end up with the one catcher out of the Dodger system who is not mlb level?

The next couple years will be Waiting for Lomavita.

Ruiz will be the starting catcher through 2030 unless the team is sold.  You know why.

[nobleisthyname]

It was a good contract extension. We need to applaud good FO behavior. They signed him early and meant when he went bust, it wasn't a team crippling mistake. However, if he busted out a top 10 offensive season, we'd have had a bargain.

Keibert Ruiz isn't the reason the Nationals have struggled. And as JCA said, if this team was winning in next few season, his salary isn't keeping Nats from reducing his role.

Sure, I don't really disagree with anything you're saying here (though I'm not convinced this contract is small enough that the Nats will be comfortable reducing his role, we shall see).

But the bigger issue is just how awful the Scherzer/Turner trade was. Hindsight is 20/20 and prospects bust as a general rule, but the Nats basically got absolutely nothing for half a year of Scherzer and 1.5 years of Turner. This team would be looking a lot more solid if even just one of either Ruiz or Gray had worked out (let alone the throw-ins of Casey and Carrillo).