Author Topic: Nats lock up Ruiz  (Read 18795 times)

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Offline varoadking

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #200 on: June 24, 2024, 11:07:55 am »
President of Baseball Ops.

President Howie.  Nice sound to it. Something like a clang off a foul pole.

I'd vote for that...  :thumbs:

Offline imref

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #201 on: July 09, 2024, 11:14:31 am »
Last 10 games: .333 / .364 / .500 with a home run. Currently 7th among NL catchers in hits, 11th in doubles, and tied for 9th in HRs.

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #202 on: July 11, 2024, 09:09:49 am »
Last 10 games: .333 / .364 / .500 with a home run. Currently 7th among NL catchers in hits, 11th in doubles, and tied for 9th in HRs.

We've seen Senzel, Rosario, and others go on hot streaks, a 10 game sample is typically meaningless overall.  Keibert is a swing early, often, and softly hitter who is a pitcher's dream.  Coles has taught him well.

Offline imref

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #203 on: August 08, 2024, 02:29:35 pm »
We've seen Senzel, Rosario, and others go on hot streaks, a 10 game sample is typically meaningless overall.  Keibert is a swing early, often, and softly hitter who is a pitcher's dream.  Coles has taught him well.

I guess Coles has fixed him? Last 30 games (106 ABs): .292 /.793 with 5 HRs

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #204 on: August 08, 2024, 04:32:55 pm »
I guess Coles has fixed him? Last 30 games (106 ABs): .292 /.793 with 5 HRs

.262 On base for the year, .259 in July

24.5% hard hit rate ranks 253rd of 259 qualifying batters

Offline welch

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #205 on: August 09, 2024, 01:22:06 pm »
I guess Coles has fixed him? Last 30 games (106 ABs): .292 /.793 with 5 HRs

Keibert has begun to hit hard again. Maybe he has recovered from the flu? Just keep it up, KB!

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #206 on: August 09, 2024, 02:44:13 pm »
Keibert has begun to hit hard again. Maybe he has recovered from the flu? Just keep it up, KB!

He's never hit the ball hard.  He ranked 185 of 212 last year in hard hit rate among players with 400+ PAs, 180 out of 205 in 2022.  He's also been near the bottom in barrel rate.  He's a soft contact hitter who rarely walks but doesn't strike out much.   He doesn't see a lot of pitches so he's a gift to opposing pitchers.  He'll have little hot streaks like any other hitter, but he is not an everyday major leaguer. 

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #207 on: August 09, 2024, 08:06:22 pm »
Ruiz is still fairly young and was a top 30 prospect.  I think a new hitting coach could unlock his potential and make him more of at least an average bat.  He can make contact, but he doesn’t draw walks and doesn’t hit the ball hard consistently.  I think he could work to increase his bat speed, patiently wait more for pitches he can do damage with, and sacrifice striking out a little more.  A 250/300/450 slash is a reasonable goal.  He still will be bad defensively, but with automation of balls and strikes, pitch framing at least won’t matter.

I think ultimately we likely need a solid catcher to pair with Ruiz versus him being the bell cow.  A Gomes/Suzuki split is what I’d expect.  Perhaps the other catcher can be stronger defensively to play in matchups against teams that run a lot.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #208 on: August 09, 2024, 10:20:15 pm »
Ruiz is still fairly young and was a top 30 prospect.  I think a new hitting coach could unlock his potential and make him more of at least an average bat.  He can make contact, but he doesn’t draw walks and doesn’t hit the ball hard consistently.  I think he could work to increase his bat speed, patiently wait more for pitches he can do damage with, and sacrifice striking out a little more.  A 250/300/450 slash is a reasonable goal.  He still will be bad defensively, but with automation of balls and strikes, pitch framing at least won’t matter.

I think ultimately we likely need a solid catcher to pair with Ruiz versus him being the bell cow.  A Gomes/Suzuki split is what I’d expect.  Perhaps the other catcher can be stronger defensively to play in matchups against teams that run a lot.

I don't think Ruiz will ever hit for that much power. I believe his path to success at the plate is trying to be more like Arraez or Kwan. Learn to be more selective and use his excellent contact skills to dunk the ball over the infield. Unlikely to happen, but he profiles closer to that than changing his profile entirely into a power hitter.

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #209 on: August 09, 2024, 10:41:20 pm »
I don't think Ruiz will ever hit for that much power. I believe his path to success at the plate is trying to be more like Arraez or Kwan. Learn to be more selective and use his excellent contact skills to dunk the ball over the infield. Unlikely to happen, but he profiles closer to that than changing his profile entirely into a power hitter.

I don't know that he ever turns into a patient hitter either.  He's 26, probably playing at the level at which he'll peak.  Kwan is also a soft hitter, but he had a BB/K over 1...as a rookie, Keibert's not about to become that kind of on base machine.  That said, his walk rate has tanked this year so a new hitting coach could probably at least help him work on being a little more selective, if not Kwan-like.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #210 on: August 10, 2024, 12:05:39 pm »
all he needs to do is to his like he did in 2023 or 2022 and he'll be fine. His EV in those years was 88 and 87.4 mph, 2+ MPH better than this year. In 2023, his HR/FB was about double what it was this year, a lot closer to average for catchers. He's hitting more flies this year; the combo of less velo and more flies has led to the average issues and fewer balls going out.

He's clearly regressed offensively, but we can hope it's not what he will be. He should be a 15-20 HR with a .260+ average.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #211 on: August 10, 2024, 01:46:17 pm »
all he needs to do is to his like he did in 2023 or 2022 and he'll be fine. His EV in those years was 88 and 87.4 mph, 2+ MPH better than this year. In 2023, his HR/FB was about double what it was this year, a lot closer to average for catchers. He's hitting more flies this year; the combo of less velo and more flies has led to the average issues and fewer balls going out.

He's clearly regressed offensively, but we can hope it's not what he will be. He should be a 15-20 HR with a .260+ average.

With his defense I think he needs to do more at the plate than what he did in 2022-23. He was still below replacement level last season.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #212 on: August 10, 2024, 02:06:42 pm »
With his defense I think he needs to do more at the plate than what he did in 2022-23. He was still below replacement level last season.
He has actually improved behind the plate.

But if he could be a .800 OPS from the left side, he'd be a cheap DH and backup catcher.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #213 on: August 10, 2024, 05:23:23 pm »

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #214 on: August 11, 2024, 05:30:27 pm »
After the ASB last year, he went .297 / .344 / .494 vs RHP (186 PA), with 9 HR.

How did he do in night games on the road where Kolko was subbing for Bob C?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #215 on: August 11, 2024, 05:57:28 pm »
How did he do in night games on the road where Kolko was subbing for Bob C?
I don't know if the 240 PAs / .602 OPS he's had against righties this year is all that more representative of his ability than the 186 PAs / .838 OPS post ASB last year.  Most we can say is that .838 looks like a peak, and that peak would be good enough to DH if he can get back to it.

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #216 on: August 11, 2024, 07:29:18 pm »
I don't know if the 240 PAs / .602 OPS he's had against righties this year is all that more representative of his ability than the 186 PAs / .838 OPS post ASB last year.  Most we can say is that .838 looks like a peak, and that peak would be good enough to DH if he can get back to it.

A DH needs to get on base, which he's not going to do.   His upside is a solid backup catcher. 

Offline rileyn

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #217 on: August 12, 2024, 11:05:05 am »
I can't even fathom Ruiz being a DH. 

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #218 on: August 15, 2024, 12:48:05 pm »
Keibert ranks 21 of 21 in WAR among catchers with > 250 ABs. 

Offline readonly

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #219 on: August 15, 2024, 08:28:12 pm »
Thread title should say Ruiz locks up Nats.

Online Smithian

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #220 on: August 16, 2024, 09:19:29 am »
We bully ownership for a decade to lock down players early, they finally do, and this happens. Rizzo will never again get them to pull an early trigger.

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #221 on: August 16, 2024, 09:42:02 am »
Rizzo will never again get them to pull an early trigger.

Good.

When they do sign anyone, Mini Me feels he's made an investment and will force them to play the contract like they've done with Corbin and Keibert, even if the player seriously underperforms.  It's cheapness + dysfunction, don't forget that second part.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #222 on: August 16, 2024, 10:16:03 am »
We bully ownership for a decade to lock down players early, they finally do, and this happens. Rizzo will never again get them to pull an early trigger.
Meh, guy posted 1.5 WAR season and then a 1.3 WAR season. Pitch framing is going away and stolen bases are pretty meaningless. Its a down season but I dont think its a disaster. He's still young enough to bounce back from this

Offline imref

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #223 on: August 16, 2024, 10:23:59 am »
Meh, guy posted 1.5 WAR season and then a 1.3 WAR season. Pitch framing is going away and stolen bases are pretty meaningless. Its a down season but I dont think its a disaster. He's still young enough to bounce back from this
And it's not as if he signed some massive extension. $5.3M in 2025-26-27, followed by $7.4 in 2028 and $9.4 in 29 and 30.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #224 on: August 16, 2024, 10:25:17 am »
Meh, guy posted 1.5 WAR season and then a 1.3 WAR season. Pitch framing is going away and stolen bases are pretty meaningless. Its a down season but I dont think its a disaster. He's still young enough to bounce back from this

Earliest pitch framing is going away is 2026, and it won't go away completely with the challenge system. I'm not writing him off completely but I'm not hopeful. He's not just putting up worse results, the underlying process metrics are all much worse this season too.