Author Topic: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 4989 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 17865
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #25: October 10, 2022, 05:36:03 PM »
Just dont see them moving on from Fedde. Not without at least trying him in a relief role. Too cheap to say no to. Same for Robles.

Just think the offseason is going to be a nothingburger for the Nats. Not with ownership in flux

He'll come back and make 30 starts again, sadly. This org has never shown an interest in turning failed starters into relievers. They kinda half-assed Voth.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 35447
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #26: October 10, 2022, 05:42:23 PM »
Voit, Fedde, and Robles are the ones I could see them letting walk or try to get them to sign for less.  Fedde doesn't fit into the rotation plan, especially if they can sign Anibal or some other 5th starter cheap, and is not needed in the bullpen.  Robles I suspect survives until Hassell displaces him.  I think for $8 million, the Nats could find a bat. 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5327
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #27: October 10, 2022, 05:55:04 PM »
Voit, Fedde, and Robles are the ones I could see them letting walk or try to get them to sign for less.  Fedde doesn't fit into the rotation plan, especially if they can sign Anibal or some other 5th starter cheap, and is not needed in the bullpen.  Robles I suspect survives until Hassell displaces him.  I think for $8 million, the Nats could find a bat.

They spent $15 million on Cruz.

Do not non-tender Voit.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 60869
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #28: October 10, 2022, 06:00:54 PM »
Voit, Fedde, and Robles are the ones I could see them letting walk or try to get them to sign for less.  Fedde doesn't fit into the rotation plan, especially if they can sign Anibal or some other 5th starter cheap, and is not needed in the bullpen.  Robles I suspect survives until Hassell displaces him.  I think for $8 million, the Nats could find a bat. 
Fedde fits into this rotation plan. They will need at least 10 starters

Offline imref

  • Posts: 38573
  • Re-contending in 2023
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #29: October 10, 2022, 08:20:49 PM »
Voit, Fedde, and Robles are the ones I could see them letting walk or try to get them to sign for less.  Fedde doesn't fit into the rotation plan, especially if they can sign Anibal or some other 5th starter cheap, and is not needed in the bullpen.  Robles I suspect survives until Hassell displaces him.  I think for $8 million, the Nats could find a bat. 

Fedde was a -0.8 WAR pitcher this year. Let him walk and sign him as AAA fodder.  You can easily replace the 8.13 ERA he posted in his final 8 starts this season, after the defense improved.

Offline raleighnat

  • Posts: 633
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #30: October 10, 2022, 11:07:44 PM »
Just dont see them moving on from Fedde. Not without at least trying him in a relief role. Too cheap to say no to. Same for Robles.

Just think the offseason is going to be a nothingburger for the Nats. Not with ownership in flux

It would be malpractice to allow a year like this past one to repeat.  There is plenty they can do to be more competitive without shortchanging the future.  Even a 3 year deals for a decent free agent will not have a material impact.  It is a big deal to be as bad as they were - and not necessary.  It’s not like they are going to be a high payroll team even if they sign a few players.  Tanking just comes at too high a cost.  It sacrifices a whole year.  If you can scare 500 by the all star break, you kee your fans engaged for a lot of the season.  Being out of it in early May is just bad for business in the long term. 

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 22907
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #31: October 10, 2022, 11:15:40 PM »
It would be malpractice to allow a year like this past one to repeat.  There is plenty they can do to be more competitive without shortchanging the future.  Even a 3 year deals for a decent free agent will not have a material impact.  It is a big deal to be as bad as they were - and not necessary.  It’s not like they are going to be a high payroll team even if they sign a few players.  Tanking just comes at too high a cost.  It sacrifices a whole year.  If you can scare 500 by the all star break, you kee your fans engaged for a lot of the season.  Being out of it in early May is just bad for business in the long term.
I think the point is unless new ownership is in place by December the current regime will not support more than one year deals.  The good news is that with Abrams and Gore and Cavalli and maybe someone at 3B, and Meneses and Garcia for a full year, it will really be a young team you can watch.  I see them signing one veteran pitcher and a corner OF. Someone mentioned Conforto. Adam Duvall or Joc Pederson would be fine. One or maybe two year deals.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11297
  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #32: October 11, 2022, 10:49:17 AM »
It would be malpractice to allow a year like this past one to repeat.  There is plenty they can do to be more competitive without shortchanging the future.  Even a 3 year deals for a decent free agent will not have a material impact.  It is a big deal to be as bad as they were - and not necessary.  It’s not like they are going to be a high payroll team even if they sign a few players.  Tanking just comes at too high a cost.  It sacrifices a whole year.  If you can scare 500 by the all star break, you kee your fans engaged for a lot of the season.  Being out of it in early May is just bad for business in the long term. 
See my post last page. It can get so, so much worse.

Look at what the Orioles, Marlins, and A's have done over the years. They tore it down and moved good pieces. And it rarely works like it did for the Astros.

If the Lerners don't move this team in the near future, they will tear this thing to shreds under the laughable auspice of clearing salary for the new owner.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5327
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #33: October 11, 2022, 11:17:43 AM »
See my post last page. It can get so, so much worse.

Look at what the Orioles, Marlins, and A's have done over the years. They tore it down and moved good pieces. And it rarely works like it did for the Astros.

If the Lerners don't move this team in the near future, they will tear this thing to shreds under the laughable auspice of clearing salary for the new owner.

The words you're looking for, I think, are "Pittsburgh Pirates."  Haven't won their division since 1992, haven't won a playoff series since 1979 (!), three consecutive years with a winning percentage under .400 and still no hope.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

  • Posts: 17450
  • babble on
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #34: October 11, 2022, 11:36:37 AM »
Nice stadium though.
The words you're looking for, I think, are "Pittsburgh Pirates."  Haven't won their division since 1992, haven't won a playoff series since 1979 (!), three consecutive years with a winning percentage under .400 and still no hope.

Offline Vega

  • Posts: 5499
  • Party’s Over
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #35: October 11, 2022, 06:47:01 PM »
You can’t just easily fix a total MLB roster disintegration in an offseason. Ideally, after a particular group’s window of contention has closed, you can only get somewhat bad for a little while before a resurgence via your farm system like St. Louis has done before, but if the farm system foundation is screwed up, you’re gonna need to fix it via trades, drafting, and signing international prospects first and that takes time.

Offline zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7807
  • The one true ace
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #36: October 11, 2022, 08:32:51 PM »
You can’t just easily fix a total MLB roster disintegration in an offseason. Ideally, after a particular group’s window of contention has closed, you can only get somewhat bad for a little while before a resurgence via your farm system like St. Louis has done before, but if the farm system foundation is screwed up, you’re gonna need to fix it via trades, drafting, and signing international prospects first and that takes time.

Helps when you trade a pile of dogcrap for Nolan arenado and Paul goldschmit

Offline English Natsie

  • Posts: 321
  • It's baseball, Jim, but not as we know it...
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #37: October 12, 2022, 02:54:46 AM »
'Nationals News' has 'looking back at the Nats 2022...'  Surprized to see an article - I thought they'd just post a link to 'Tracks Of My Tears...'   ;)

Offline sixthree175

  • Posts: 2284
  • Born in 1961
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #38: October 12, 2022, 04:31:52 AM »
... I can think of a few changes and limited additions that could give this club a chance to compete for .500 if things break right. And at the least, set it up for aggressively attacking next offseason...
Is there any value in competing for .500?  Sounds like the plan for 2023 is to add only short term contracts that could be flipped at the end of July.  Another lost season...

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 35447
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #39: October 12, 2022, 09:16:11 AM »
Is there any value in competing for .500?  Sounds like the plan for 2023 is to add only short term contracts that could be flipped at the end of July.  Another lost season...
I think there is.  IF you have legit 78+ win expectation going into a season, there's always a chance of upside surprise and a playoff run.  That's especially true if you get into a position to trade near the deadline to further strengthen the team.  I sort of think this was where the 2021 team was, except they probably ended up on the low side of their expectation once they fell apart in July.  I also think that type of team plays more interesting baseball and are just easier to watch for a fan.  I think you can get above average play out of many positions using older vets and players who had off years just before free agency who are looking for short contracts to reset their values.  It's possible to do this approach if you have a decent core of several position players and starting pitchers.

Offline Duke of Earl

  • Posts: 742
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #40: October 12, 2022, 01:03:56 PM »
Is there any value in competing for .500? 
Absolutely, there is.  If you're an 81 win team, then 85 wins is within the margin of error.  Look at the Orioles this season. 83 wins and they were in the wildcard run until the last week or two.

Doesn't matter if they make the postseason, if they have something to play for, fans will show up in large numbers.

On the other hand a 70 win team is not going to attract very many fans.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5327
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #41: October 13, 2022, 10:51:34 AM »
Absolutely, there is.  If you're an 81 win team, then 85 wins is within the margin of error.  Look at the Orioles this season. 83 wins and they were in the wildcard run until the last week or two.

Doesn't matter if they make the postseason, if they have something to play for, fans will show up in large numbers.

On the other hand a 70 win team is not going to attract very many fans.

(Buckle up for grump mode)

A ~10m/year-ish jersey patch deal will cover a lot of unsold seats.  At $75/ticket it covers a drop of 133,000 fans.  If they non-tender Voit, that's another 110,000 people they don't need to buy tickets.

They don't care whether anyone attends the games, and a lot of their buyers will buy tickets no matter how bad the team is or how much the tickets cost, because drunk clients at baseball games is good business at nearly any price.

Offline Duke of Earl

  • Posts: 742
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #42: October 13, 2022, 01:03:56 PM »
(Buckle up for grump mode)

A ~10m/year-ish jersey patch deal will cover a lot of unsold seats.  At $75/ticket it covers a drop of 133,000 fans.  If they non-tender Voit, that's another 110,000 people they don't need to buy tickets.

They don't care whether anyone attends the games, and a lot of their buyers will buy tickets no matter how bad the team is or how much the tickets cost, because drunk clients at baseball games is good business at nearly any price.

 I go back to  Bob Short.  We don't know who the buyer is going to be and he might be someone other than Leonsis, someone who wants to move the team to another city, and buys the team specifically for that purpose.  Like Short did.  Nothing provides an excuse to do that better than when everyone can see  a stadium 20% full every game.  That's how Short convinced the AL owners to let him move the team to Texas.

It's sort of like the democracy crisis going on now.  Everyone takes it for granted until it's threatened.  We have all taken for granted that the Nats will be here forever. Until that assumption is threatened by a forthcoming sale.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 60869
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #43: October 13, 2022, 01:30:49 PM »
Holy freaking Jesus. MLB is not going to let a new owner move the team. They worked to freaking hard to get a team in DC

Offline hotshot

  • Posts: 1399
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #44: October 13, 2022, 02:10:43 PM »
Holy freaking Jesus. MLB is not going to let a new owner move the team. They worked to freaking hard to get a team in DC
I think/hope you are right. I lived as a kid through the original Senators move to Minnesota. Then, MLB gave us the expansion team Senators. After just a decade, they were gone too.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 60869
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #45: October 13, 2022, 03:41:31 PM »
I cant see ownership or even Rizzo wanting to buy big in free agents this offseason. Quite frankly, we need to know what to buy. If Gore, Cavali, and Gray cant be good starters, then the shopping list changes. So I would expect to make one year signings similar to what Rizzo has done the last couple seasons.

Im wondering if Rizzo has the leeway to add a bad contract ending soon. Cards have a plethora of outfielders under team control for at least the next three years. They will probably be looking for pitching and a vet catcher this offseason.

Im wondering if we can get in on a three way trade, where we take on Jorge Soler's contract, in exchange for O'neill from the Cards, with the Marlins sending Lopez (and maybe Stallings) in exchange for Burelson, Hence, and a lesser prospect.

Offline Duke of Earl

  • Posts: 742
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #46: October 13, 2022, 04:38:50 PM »
Holy freaking Jesus. MLB is not going to let a new owner move the team. They worked to freaking hard to get a team in DC
Selig worked hard.  I don't recall that the owners cared one way or another. Who do you think is "not going to let a new owner move the team",  the commissioner or the owners?  Not the commissioner. He has no power in the matter.  The owners will decide and as I said I don't think they care if there is a team in DC.   And anyway it's a different commissioner. Who knows whether he cares about a team in DC.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 38573
  • Re-contending in 2023
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #47: October 13, 2022, 05:02:09 PM »
the Nats aren't moving out of DC.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 35447
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #48: October 13, 2022, 05:02:09 PM »
Im wondering if Rizzo has the leeway to add a bad contract ending soon. Cards have a plethora of outfielders under team control for at least the next three years. They will probably be looking for pitching and a vet catcher this offseason.

Im wondering if we can get in on a three way trade, where we take on Jorge Soler's contract, in exchange for O'neill from the Cards, with the Marlins sending Lopez (and maybe Stallings) in exchange for Burelson, Hence, and a lesser prospect.
Interesting concept.  I still like Soler as a DH.  We could shift Voit to 1st and Meneses to right, O'Neill in left, and Thomas or Robles as the primary CF, with the other as depth along with Yadi.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 17865
Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #49: October 13, 2022, 05:03:29 PM »
Selig worked hard.  I don't recall that the owners cared one way or another. Who do you think is "not going to let a new owner move the team",  the commissioner or the owners?  Not the commissioner. He has no power in the matter.  The owners will decide and as I said I don't think they care if there is a team in DC.   And anyway it's a different commissioner. Who knows whether he cares about a team in DC.

moving a successful, profitable franchise out of DC to...????? seems like a really dumb idea. come on man