Nationals @ Marlins, Game 3

[Dave in Fairfax]

at

September 19, 2020

Washington Nationals

Patrick Corbin (L)

1. Trea Turner (R) SS
2. Juan Soto (L) LF
3. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) 1B
4. Eric Thames (L) DH
5. Yan Gomes (R) C
6. Luis Garcia (L) 2B
7. Carter Kieboom (R) 3B
8. Andrew Stevenson (L) RF
9. Victor Robles (R) CF

Miami Marlins

Pablo Lopez (R)

1. Miguel Rojas (R) SS
2. Starling Marte (R) CF
3. Garrett Cooper (R) 1B
4. Jesus Aguilar (R) DH
5. Brian Anderson (R) 3B
6. Lewis Brinson (R) RF
7. Corey Dickerson (L) LF
8. Sean Rodriguez (R) 2B
9. Chad Wallach (R) C

[hohoho]

Anybody know what is the record on latest start on a gdt?

[Dave in Fairfax]

I'm just wondering if I am going to end up with a worse losing record in GDTs than the Nationals end up with as a team.

[hohoho]

I'm just wondering if I am going to end up with a worse losing record in GDTs than the Nationals end up with as a team.

The perils of leadership.

[DCFan]

I'm just wondering if I am going to end up with a worse losing record in GDTs than the Nationals end up with as a team.

Take those arrows. It’s for a worthy cause.

[DCFan]

Why would anyone pitch to Soto with an empty base and Thames on deck?

[Slateman]

Why would anyone pitch to Soto with an empty base and Thames on deck?

that's why

[Slateman]

That woulda sailed over Eaton's head

[NatNasty]

Nice catch by Robert Louis

[NatNasty]

Bad pitch by Corbin

[Dave in Fairfax]

It seems like I've seen this game before. Sputtering offense, pitching behind early, striking a bunch of guys out while giving up a bunch of home runs.

[Dave in Fairfax]

Finally!

[NatNasty]

Robert Louis

[Slateman]

What the freak, Carter

[NatNasty]

Blunder on the basepath.  Drink.

[Dave in Fairfax]

What the freak, Carter

He who hesitates is lost.

[Elvir Ovcina]

The Nats are 2-7 in Corbin's starts this year and have lost every game he's pitched since August 10.

Not coincidentally, that's the last time they scored more than 3 runs in any of his starts.  He's gotten 11 runs of support over his last six starts coming into tonight, so I suppose he should go in there and thank them for getting the bats out early!

[Dave in Fairfax]

If you just looked at the pitch count and balls/strikes ratio, you'd think Corbin was dealing.

[Elvir Ovcina]

If you just looked at the pitch count and balls/strikes ratio, you'd think Corbin was dealing.

Yeah, and his FIP or xFIP or whichever of those particular silly stats gets overused is probably about -3.50 because he has zero walks and 7 Ks.  (Seriously, though, the FIP for 5 IP with 11 hits and 6 ER allowed, including 2 homers, is 2.40, as long as you have 7 Ks and no walks.  And people think it's a useful stat.)

Pity about the things that actually matter.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

xFIP sounds a bit like a po rn site

[Dave in Fairfax]

Yeah, and his FIP or xFIP or whichever of those particular silly stats gets overused is probably about -3.50 because he has zero walks and 7 Ks.  (Seriously, though, the FIP for 5 IP with 11 hits and 6 ER allowed, including 2 homers, is 2.40, as long as you have 7 Ks and no walks.  And people think it's a useful stat.)

Pity about the things that actually matter.

FIP is probably useful for agents trying to argue that their client can't be blamed for a lack of defense around him. As an in-game play measure, I agree that I don't know what it's value is.

That to me is true of a lot of the advanced metrics bandied about. Some are useful for an agent or GM trying to decide if a player would be of use to a particular team, some are useful to the GM and manager in planning out how to develop and use a player over the course of the season, some are useful to the manager in making decisions about line-ups, match-ups, etc. when planning out games, and some might be useful in making decisions within games. None is really any sort of be-all/end-all measure of how good or bad a player is.

[Elvir Ovcina]

xFIP sounds a bit like a po rn site

I do wonder whether a stat called Fielding Adjusted Pitching would catch on with the fantasy baseball incel crowd.

FIP is probably useful for agents trying to argue that their client can't be blamed for a lack of defense around him. As an in-game play measure, I agree that I don't know what it's value is.

That to me is true of a lot of the advanced metrics bandied about. Some are useful for an agent or GM trying to decide if a player would be of use to a particular team, some are useful to the GM and manager in planning out how to develop and use a player over the course of the season, some are useful to the manager in making decisions about line-ups, match-ups, etc. when planning out games, and some might be useful in making decisions within games. None is really any sort of be-all/end-all measure of how good or bad a player is.

All FIP is useful for is observing that a guy strikes out a lot of guys without many walks or home runs.  It's a compendium of three independent stats that are incredibly easy to understand without any further numbers and don't need to be contextualized.  It uses arbitrary scalars in the formula to artificially generate a number that resembles an ERA.  It might as well be called the "fake ERA."  It simply provides an excuse for pitchers to blame their defense when they give up a bunch of hits that stay in the park without providing any input that actually measures the defense (which is now measurable).  The fact that people cite it alongside ERA drives me up the freaking wall.  It's a third-line, reality-check stat, not anything of any direct utility. 

Agree with your point, though, so please excuse the rant.

[Dave in Fairfax]

I recall originally thinking about some of these measures in the context of how teams like the Orioles or Rockies would try to convince a free-agent pitcher to sign with them. I assumed this was the kind of analysis that ended up in Scott Boras' binders. That's why I think it might have use in some contexts but not for fans who just want to watch a game.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I recall originally thinking about some of these measures in the context of how teams like the Orioles or Rockies would try to convince a free-agent pitcher to sign with them. I assumed this was the kind of analysis that ended up in Scott Boras' binders. That's why I think it might have use in some contexts but not for fans who just want to watch a game.

You're being entirely too reasonable.  I do think that's what happened here, but it's just the perfect apex of advanced stats in baseball: it's a number that appears to be directly comparable to another but is in fact a randomly-weighted mishmash that is weighted that way specifically so it appears comparable to ERA.  Any utility it has when used appropriately is far outweighed by the dangers of its prolific misuse by people in the media who don't understand what it actually measures, which has now occurred.  In other news I WANT TO YELL ABOUT STUFF!

[Dave in Fairfax]

You're being entirely too reasonable.  I do think that's what happened here, but it's just the perfect apex of advanced stats in baseball: it's a number that appears to be directly comparable to another but is in fact a randomly-weighted mishmash that is weighted that way specifically so it appears comparable to ERA.  Any utility it has when used appropriately is far outweighed by the dangers of its prolific misuse by people in the media who don't understand what it actually measures, which has now occurred.  In other news I WANT TO YELL ABOUT STUFF!

I'd like to think I am reasonable.    I too, though, have a long list of stuff that makes me want to yell at the screen and break stuff. The obsession with "pitch framing" that so many people seem to have, for example. And I absolutely hate the obnoxiousness of the Brian Kenny's of the world who sit around cherry-picking various newfangled stats and patting themselves on the back for their 20/20 hindsight.