Where did it all go wrong?

[Slateman]

Who are the closers who are elite and healthy every year?  Are there more than enough to count on one hand?  On even one finger?

No, that's what makes them elite.

Chapman, Jansen, Davis, Kimbrel. All have stayed relatively healthy over the last 4 seasons.

[bluestreak]

He had one year, the year he was hurt, where he wasn't elite. I'd bet on that track record for a couple more years.

From earlier in the year. But a compelling argument.

https://amp.mlb.com/275690874-sean-doolittle-may-be-baseballs-best-reliever.amp.html

[Mattionals]

Washington Nationals
FanGraphs preseason projection: 92-70
World Series odds on March 28: 9/1 (6)
Current record: 80-78
Offseason suggestion: Upgrade catcher, add another starting pitcher (such as Tampa Bay's Chris Archer).

The Nationals entered the offseason with major issues: catcher, rotation depth and bullpen depth. GM Mike Rizzo did nothing to address those concerns. But he did fire Dusty Baker. So what happened?

The catchers have hit .207/.299/.315. Erick Fedde, Jefry Rodriguez, Tommy Milone, Joe Ross, A.J. Cole and Austin Voth have made 28 starts with a combined 6.12 ERA. And the bullpen had questionable depth behind Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Doolittle was great when healthy. Madson wasn't good. Rizzo did trade for Kelvin Herrera, and he wasn't good either and then got hurt. Yes, the Nationals were a little snakebit here, but it was easy to forecast problems in the pen.

Of course, the Braves and Phillies (at least until September) were also better. The Nationals are 40-35 against the NL East. Last season, they went 47-29. In 2016, they went 51-25. And that's how we end up with a superteam struggling to finish .500.

Don't you love "journalists" who don't even watch the games and just look up stats all day? No mention of Strasburg getting hurt or the tremendous collective crapstorm that was Gio and Roark after Stras went on the DL. Upgrading at Catcher and just some more depth would not have saved the season. The Nats needed Harper to not go on a homer or nothing spree, and to not have two of their starters become instant dumpster fires. I'll give the ESPN troll this, he was right about the bullpen.

[Count Walewski]

Who are the closers who are elite and healthy every year?  Are there more than enough to count on one hand?  On even one finger?

In the Hall of Fame. All two of them (Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman).

[Ray D]

Craig Kimbrel. Only 1 DL stint in 9 years as far as I can tell.

He's got a good stretching program.  Stretches before each pitch.

[bluestreak]

Don't you love "journalists" who don't even watch the games and just look up stats all day? No mention of Strasburg getting hurt or the tremendous collective crapstorm that was Gio and Roark after Stras went on the DL. Upgrading at Catcher and just some more depth would not have saved the season. The Nats needed Harper to not go on a homer or nothing spree, and to not have two of their starters become instant dumpster fires. I'll give the ESPN troll this, he was right about the bullpen.

I’m not sure where the guy is wrong. The big problem was rotation depth. If your starters get injured and you’re trotting our Fedde, Cole and Rodriguez to the tune of a 6 ERA  you have failed in your team construction.
Look at the Cubs. Two of their top starters, Darvish and Chatwood, have been absolute garbage. Where are they? Best record in NL.
Even everyone on WNFF could see catcher was a problem. But nothing got done.

At no point in this season was Harper a less than average offensive player. Even in the worst of his slump because he still got on base. Putting a significant portion of the blame on him seems wrong.

[Mattionals]

I’m not sure where the guy is wrong. The big problem was rotation depth. If your starters get injured and you’re trotting our Fedde, Cole and Rodriguez to the tune of a 6 ERA  you have failed in your team construction.
Look at the Cubs. Two of their top starters, Darvish and Chatwood, have been absolute garbage. Where are they? Best record in NL.
Even everyone on WNFF could see catcher was a problem. But nothing got done.

At no point in this season was Harper a less than average offensive player. Even in the worst of his slump because he still got on base. Putting a significant portion of the blame on him seems wrong.

You are mindfacting man. The Cubs actually have a worse rotation this season than the Nats do. Roark in June and July took a dump on the field. Gio did the same during June, July, and August. Strasburg is on the DL. You aren't trying to make up for one missing guy, you are stuck with two dumpster fires and trying to make up for one guy (plus whenever Hellickson was hurt). I don't think any team has the depth to have two 3-4 WAR pitchers pitch less than replacement level and then be able to just replace them internally. The Cubs basically didn't have Darvish at all this season, and lucked into having Chatwood, Quintana, Lester, and Montgomery being ineffective at different times during the season with little overlap. Well, not on Chatwood. He was good in April and then bombed out the rest of the season. They also picked up Hamels at the deadline and got a pleasant surprise with him.

Oh, the Harper thing?




You tell me if he was a league average player all season or not.

[bluestreak]

Re: Harper.  Look at the wRC+. 100 is average. He’s been above that almost the whole season.

[Slateman]

He definitely fell out of being elite for a couple years though.  It's such a crap shoot betting on a closer.  Who could have predicted that Kimbrel would return to form for 2017 and 2018 after his previous two seasons.

I think Doolittle is as good a bet as anyone for next year.

The only thing to bet on Doolittle is a trip to the DL

[blue911]

The only thing to bet on Doolittle is a trip to the DL

and he'll throw strikes.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This week, I've gone to a couple of games and looked at the top of the order OBP.  We have 2 guys around .400, both of whom also mash (Soto, Harper).  Eaton is near .390, and Rendon is a 20+ HR guy who also has a .380+ OBP.  Turner is only .340 or so, but he runs, will end up close to 20 HRs.  2d half of the year, when these guys were together and healthy, we were 2d in MLB in runs scored.  Other than Eaton, all of these guys played full seasons.  First half, we were 18th.  We had Adams and Reynolds contributing too in the first half when RZ was out, and RZ had a good second half. 

Was the story on the offense really as simple as Harper's plate approach in May and June, and Eaton being out or ineffective until the 2d half?  Did the time it took for Eaton, RZ, and Murphy to get back to normal after their DL stints end up killing the offense?  That's 4 holes in the line up in June and early July, plus the catcher situation, when this team really hit the skids.  Add in Stras and Hellickson being out, and Gio and Roark collapsing, with the guys working their way back, and you have the sinkhole month. 

[Mattionals]

Re: Harper.  Look at the wRC+. 100 is average. He’s been above that almost the whole season.

You said at no point during the season was he not average or above. For one entire month he was below average and if you look at the graph, there was an obvious portion of the season that his rolling 15 game wRC+ average was below 100. I see people defending Harper on here like he just went through a slump, but he obviously changed his approach at some point during the season to try and do something that wasn't his norm. I never really agree with Slate on much of anything, but he is right in regards to Harper this season. Harper changed his approach to try and hit 50 bombs, and expanded the zone more than he would normally. Pitches he usually lays off of, he tried to pull for homers. He changed his game to try and get a big pay day. It took until the All-Star break for him to fully get back into his normal swing and routine.

[bluestreak]

You said at no point during the season was he not average or above. For one entire month he was below average and if you look at the graph, there was an obvious portion of the season that his rolling 15 game wRC+ average was below 100. I see people defending Harper on here like he just went through a slump, but he obviously changed his approach at some point during the season to try and do something that wasn't his norm. I never really agree with Slate on much of anything, but he is right in regards to Harper this season. Harper changed his approach to try and hit 50 bombs, and expanded the zone more than he would normally. Pitches he usually lays off of, he tried to pull for homers. He changed his game to try and get a big pay day. It took until the All-Star break for him to fully get back into his normal swing and routine.

Ok. He was 15 percent below average for a month. And I agree that he changed his approach. And I wasn’t trying to defend him. What I was saying was that it wasn’t Harper’s fault the season went to crap. For *almost* all the season he was average or better.
The reason was the pitching and to some degree the injuries. I don’t think a 150 wRC+ Harper all year puts the team in the playoffs if all the other things are still  present.

[Mattionals]

Ok. He was 15 percent below average for a month. And I agree that he changed his approach. And I wasn’t trying to defend him. What I was saying was that it wasn’t Harper’s fault the season went to crap. For *almost* all the season he was average or better.
The reason was the pitching and to some degree the injuries. I don’t think a 150 wRC+ Harper all year puts the team in the playoffs if all the other things are still  present.

I didn't lay sole blame on Harper. I said that Harper changing his approach and going cold, PLUS Stras getting injured (which would be a rotation depth thing), PLUS the bullpen, and finally PLUS Roark and Gio taking a dump on the mound every 5 days is why the Nats have an early tee time.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Ok. He was 15 percent below average for a month. 

uh, average is 100.  He got as low as 65% below average in the month of the season when the team cratered.

[bluestreak]

uh, average is 100.  He got as low as 65% below average in the month of the season when the team cratered.

I was looking at the chart that showed the number at 85 once. I admit I may have read that wrong.

[slhubic]

the results speak for itself--to have such a disparity from one season to the next, it all stems from the last two manager decisions.

[Jeff in Gaithersburg]

Where to begin with this one. A not-so-quick summary:

New manager and coaching staff - We all know how guys are creatures of habit and set in their ways, you bring in an entire new coaching staff it's going to take time for the whole team to adjust. That and there are serious questions whether or not Davey can hack it as a manager and whether or not Lilliquist and Long are good pitching & hitting coaches.

Injuries and lack of depth - Yes they had injuries in 2016 and 2017, but the totality of them seemed worse this season. Zimm, Murphy and Wieters all missed significant time after all were healthy and very productive in all of 2017, and their backups simply didn't get the job done. Adams numbers looked decent but he was very streaky. Kendrick going down was huge. Rendon missed a month. Stras being out for 2 months started a decline from what was a hot team prior to him going down. Bullpen was then compromised by all of the extra innings they had to throw, and several relievers not being able to throw strikes was also an issue. Pitch counts got run up and relievers burned themselves out quicker.

Lack of production from key areas - Bryce's terrible 1st half of the season really helped put the team in an offensive bind. Given the injuries at other key positions, there was a lack of production in other key spots which was exacerbated by his poor numbers earlier in the season. Gio and Tanner crapping the bed on a regular basis in the 1st half of the season, especially June, really hurt and after a solid 2017 Wieters was a liability this season even when healthy. Madson and Kintzler also dropped off and it hurt the back end of the pen especially when Doolittle got hurt.   

Leadership void - With Dusty and Werth both leaving last year, it left a huge leadership gap on this team. Mid-season it seemed Max tried to take that role but I'm not sure he's a natural at it, and it needs to be someone who is an every day player imo. Need to find that guy over the winter.

Home record - For whatever reason, they were lousy at home this year, especially home day games (15-20) with many of the losses coming against LH starters. It begs the question, were their routines for home day games out of whack or something? Not enough batting practice? 

Fundamentals - This season may have been the worst base running I've seen from a Nats team. Lack of communication all over the place this season. Couldn't get a bunt down in crucial situations. Team looked clueless out there at times and situational hitting was horrible as well.

Mark Lerner/Mike Rizzo - The owner and GM need to absorb some blame as well, Lerner for not letting Rizzo make the call on Dusty and then forcing Rizzo's hand to hire a rookie manager and then being indecisive with the direction at the team in July and August. Rizzo for not adequately addressing the pen or backup catcher over the winter.

Division record - The Braves and Phillies were much improved this season and the Nats struggled with both teams after several years of pounding them, they lost the season series to the Mets and had some bad and embarrassing losses to the Marlins.

Add all of those things up and you pretty much have the lousy season we saw this year.

[Jeff in Gaithersburg]

Games not started by Eaton: 45-33

There you have it. This was a better team with Eaton on the shelf. No coincidence the Nats played their best in April/May when Eaton was hurt. The guy has become a glorified slap hitter. He can’t play CF anymore. He can’t steal bases anymore. He has no pop. He’s best suited as a scrappy 4th outfielder.

Not sure what his defensive metrics say, but offensively I'll take a leadoff hitter who slashes .297/.392 and hits .317 with RISP when most of the lineup is inept in that situation. The ACL was a freak injury last year, then he had the weird slide in April, but after June 9th he was healthy the rest of the season and was on pace for a 55-60 RBI season if he had been healthy all year. That said, if Bryce does come back or the Nats get an additional OF in free agency to replace Bryce, Eaton would be expendable and could be flipped for a 2B, C, or bullpen piece.

[aspenbubba]

Not sure what his defensive metrics say, but offensively I'll take a leadoff hitter who slashes .297/.392 and hits .317 with RISP when most of the lineup is inept in that situation. The ACL was a freak injury last year, then he had the weird slide in April, but after June 9th he was healthy the rest of the season and was on pace for a 55-60 RBI season if he had been healthy all year. That said, if Bryce does come back or the Nats get an additional OF in free agency to replace Bryce, Eaton would be expendable and could be flipped for a 2B, C, or bullpen piece.

I agree with you . Eaton is a sparkplug and if Harp re-signs and what we are seeing with Robles lately he could be a valuable asset in a trade.

[Ray D]

Not sure what his defensive metrics say, but offensively I'll take a leadoff hitter who slashes .297/.392 and hits .317 with RISP when most of the lineup is inept in that situation. The ACL was a freak injury last year, then he had the weird slide in April, but after June 9th he was healthy the rest of the season and was on pace for a 55-60 RBI season if he had been healthy all year. That said, if Bryce does come back or the Nats get an additional OF in free agency to replace Bryce, Eaton would be expendable and could be flipped for a 2B, C, or bullpen piece.

I've concluded that that guy is more than just a severe annoyance, he's a genuine troll.  Nobody can seriously suggest that this team is better without Eaton.

[catocony]

What he wrote is the general consensus.  Robles and Soto will be starters, barring injury, on opening day.  If Harper comes back, then Eaton doesn't have a spot to play, and they're not going to pay his salary for him to come off the bench.  Taylor, they will pay him a few million to be the 4th outfielder.  But for Eaton, he would pretty much need to be traded.

The Severino experiment failed, but IMHO it needed to be tried.  The fact that he's barely playing in September tells me that he'll be back at Syracuse next year with another chance to improve his hitting. 

The bullpen experiment also failed. The fact that Gott and Austin Adams aren't even up in September says that thankfully, they're gone next season. 

I would throw the checkbook at Machado in November.  An infield of Rendon at 3rd, Machado at SS and Turner at 2nd would be excellent.  An outfield of Soto, Robles and Eaton, with Taylor off the bench, would be exciting.  Sign a solid lefty backup for Zim at first, sign the best catcher you can find to start (or trade for one), sign a #3 starter and sign 2-3 relievers.  It's a long shopping list, but doable.

[blue911]

Where to begin with this one. A not-so-quick summary:

Nice summary, thanks

[imref]

32-43 against teams with a .500 record or better

[Mathguy]

This is complete BS - no cause & effect, but spurious statistics.  Howie Kendricks was playing in the spring when the Nats did well.  Just think how the Nats might have been with both Eaton & Kendricks ?

Games not started by Eaton: 45-33

There you have it. This was a better team with Eaton on the shelf. No coincidence the Nats played their best in April/May when Eaton was hurt. The guy has become a glorified slap hitter. He can’t play CF anymore. He can’t steal bases anymore. He has no pop. He’s best suited as a scrappy 4th outfielder.