Where did it all go wrong?

[nfotiu]

Looking at our record with vs without Murphy had me thinking about how we play with other players in or out of the lineup.

Games Murphy started: 18-33
Games Murphy didn't start: 58-41

Games started by Max: 21-10
Games started by Stras: 10-9
Games started by Roark: 13-18
Games started by Gio: 11-16
Games started by Hellickson: 11-7
Games started by others: 10-14

Games started by MAT&Robles: 49-41
Games not started by MAT&Robles (meaning Harper was likely CF): 27-33

Games started by Eaton: 31-42
Games not started by Eaton: 45-32

Games started by Weiters 33-23
Not started by Weiters 43-51

Probably some mistakes in here, as I counted a lot by hand.  But it definitely looks like some trends in here.

My overly assumptive conclusions are:

Murphy's offense did not make up for his not-mlb level 2nd base defense. 
Eaton's offense does not make up for having Harper in center over MAT or Robbles.
Too much work to cross-reference the numbers, but I suspect our record is abysmal with the combination of Harper in CF and Murphy at 2nd base.   The team defense is just too crappy with that starting lineup to give our non-Max pitchers a chance to win.
Our record with no-name starters is not as bad as I thought.  Roark and Gio really let us down this year.  I wonder how much had to do with the defense behind them including the games Weiters wasn't catching.  That probably applies more to Roark, and maybe Gio is just done as a quality starter.

For next year, one of Harper or Eaton has to go.  No plan should include him as a CF.   Try to find a good fielding 2nd baseman, and add a couple decent starting pitchers, and the team should be better.
 

[mitlen]

Looking at our record with vs without Murphy had me thinking about how we play with other players in or out of the lineup.

Interesting numbers   ....  what was our record when Murphy and Eaton were on the DL?   

[Baseball is Life]

Careful. All this self-flagellation might leave a mark.

[nfotiu]

Interesting numbers   ....  what was our record when Murphy and Eaton were on the DL?   

17-13

Small sample size, but if projected to the full season, it would be good enough for a 1.5 game lead on the division.

[mitlen]

17-13

Small sample size, but if projected to the full season, it would be good enough for a 1.5 game lead on the division.

Thanks

[imref]

my sense is that what killed us this year were Gio and Roark's ineffectiveness, and the bullpen meltdowns. 

[spidernat]

my sense is that what killed us this year were Gio and Roark's ineffectiveness, and the bullpen meltdowns. 

Harper's 1st half was the main reason, IMO. But Gonzalez and Roark are right behind.

[Baseball is Life]

my sense is that what killed us this year were Gio and Roark's ineffectiveness, and the bullpen meltdowns. 

And having Murphy and Eaton out early in the season really hurt the offense.

[nfotiu]

And having Murphy and Eaton out early in the season really hurt the offense.

Hey, I just typed a bunch of crap showing that we were better off with Murphy and Eaton out!

We have a good record when we have good defense up the middle.  We suck when we have not-Weiters at Catcher, Murphy at 2d, and Harper at center.

[Slateman]

When Strasburg went down. The rotation crumbled underneath itself.

[nfotiu]

Harper's 1st half was the main reason, IMO. But Gonzalez and Roark are right behind.

As crappy as he was, he was still adding value with his bat.   He was leading the league in walks and home runs.   I think he was at about 2 OWAR at the halfway mark, but was around 0 due to a ~-2.0 DWAR from playing at center field. 

[dcpatti]

Lots of stuff:

-Having three or four of the team's heaviest hitters all on the DL at the same time.  Murphy, Eaton and Rendon all out, plus Zim (he was out at the same time but it's up to you if you count him as a heavy hitter or not).
-Having three veteran closers all on the DL at the same time (Dooo, Madson and Herrera) which had a bad domino effect on the rest of the bullpen.
-Having two-fifths of the rotation on the DL at the same time (Stras and Helly)(Plus Fedde on the DL too so your backup dude isn't even there)
-Having another two-fifths of the rotation blow goats (Roark and Gio) and having some of that goat-blowing time overlap with the Stras/Helly DL trip
 
Probably most painful: not having any real time where the rotation, bullpen (especially closer/setup guys) and lineup were all intact at once.

If we had had ALL the injuries at once and then half a season of relative health, we'd have taken the division.
If we'd had multiple injuries at once but not crippling a whole "group"-- like if Rendon, Stras and Madson had been hurt at the same time but Eaton, Murphy, Herrera, Helly and Doo had all been healthy-- we probably still would have taken the division.
But when you alternate between decimated lineup, shaky bullpen and broken starting pitching all the way into mid August, you aren't going to recover.

Yeah Davey screwed a bunch of stuff up too, Harper had a long dumb slump, the catcher spot has been mostly sadness,  and the Nats baserunning was some Benny Hill level of bullcrap, but that isn't what killed us.

[aspenbubba]

And having Murphy and Eaton out early in the season really hurt the offense.

Only in April and part of June. The team did great in May and were 10 games above .500

[mitlen]

...     and the Nats baserunning was some Benny Hill level of bullcrap   ...

[dcpatti]

From Boswell's Q&A Today:

Before the All-Star game, with major injuries, or recovery from injury for Eaton, Murphy, Zimmerman and Wieters, plus ~25 DL games for Rendon, the Nats had the 16th best OPS in MLB. And they were 18th in runs scored.

After the All-Star game, with Eaton, Murphy, Zim and Wieters recovered, Rendon back and Harper out of his slump (perhaps related to having to carry less weight), the Nats have LED THE MAJORS in runs (288) and are SECOND in MLB in OPS.

This is in a completely different context than "what killed our season" but the observations are still pretty relevant. The offense was literally crippled for half the season. It's a big factor.

[imref]

From Boswell's Q&A Today:


This is in a completely different context than "what killed our season" but the observations are still pretty relevant. The offense was literally crippled for half the season. It's a big factor.

we went into the ASB at 48-48.  Since then, 28-26.  So the offense came to life in the 2nd half, and only put his 2 games over .500 so far.  I still blame Roark, Gio, and the bullpen.

Before the ASB, we averaged 4.03 RPG, and gave up 4.34.

Since the ASB, we've given up 4.26 runs per game and scored 5.14

[spidernat]

they had too many games in which they scored 3 runs or fewer have probably had close to 30 games in which they scored 8+ runs to make the average appear respectable

[imref]

Another look at our season:  Fewest runs allowed (earned + unearned):

LAD: 573
Cubs: 489
Arizona: 594
Braves: 605
Brewers: 624
Nats: 626

We're first in the league in fielding percentage and we have the fewest errors in the league.

The Cards, at 629, and the Rockies (700) are the only teams who has allowed more runs than we have, and are still in playoff contention.

Looking at the argument that it was our defense, we gave up 30 unearned runs this year.  For comparisons:
Atlanta: 48
Arizona: 39
Cubs: 41
Dodgers: 52
Cardinals: 57
Brewers: 52

3rd in the league in runs scored, 9th in team ERA.

[DPMOmaha]

There's plenty of blame to go around. When one aspect was struggling, the others weren't good enough to pick them up.

[nfotiu]

Another look at our season:  Fewest runs allowed (earned + unearned):

LAD: 573
Cubs: 489
Arizona: 594
Braves: 605
Brewers: 624
Nats: 626

We're first in the league in fielding percentage and we have the fewest errors in the league.

The Cards, at 629, and the Rockies (700) are the only teams who has allowed more runs than we have, and are still in playoff contention.

Looking at the argument that it was our defense, we gave up 30 unearned runs this year.  For comparisons:
Atlanta: 48
Arizona: 39
Cubs: 41
Dodgers: 52
Cardinals: 57
Brewers: 52

3rd in the league in runs scored, 9th in team ERA.

Errors weren't so much the problem when Murphy (and to a lesser extent Harper) couldn't get close enough to the balls to commit errors.

[Elvir Ovcina]

"Truth be told, I miss you.  Truth be told, I'm lyin'."

[blue911]

The camels had fleas

[mitlen]

"Truth be told, I miss you.  Truth be told, I'm lyin'."

Flashed me to a John Prine song:

Cold and I'm tired
And I can't stop coughing
Long enough to tell you all the news

Like to tell ya that'd I'd see ya more often
But often is a word I seldom use.

Apologies for the digression.     It's Florence's fault.

[catocony]

With the constantly changing roster this year, none of the split stats are significant.  One hot month, two cold ones, 2.5 mediocre ones.  If it was the same guys playing all year, then comparisons could be valid. 

[catocony]

my sense is that what killed us this year were Gio and Roark's ineffectiveness, and the bullpen meltdowns.

How many shutouts did the Nat's hitters put up this season?  Bad defense or bad pitching are irrelevant if you don't score at least one run.