Sept 30th - 82 -80, the 6-month crapshow is finally over

[Natsinpwc]

Well now the giants were I think 13 back on August 15.   We're not quite there yet.

Two teams is what makes it difficult.

[spidernat]

Please don't.  You'll probably pour the hot candle wax on yourself or something since your a Philthy fan, and we don't need anyone getting hurt.

In that case, let him go through with it, double portion

[bluestreak]

There are enough games vs. The Phillies and the Braves that if the Nats get hot they can catch both of them. One of the benefits of the unbalanced schedule. They play the Marlins next. If they take 3 of 4 there, I can't see Rizzo selling and don't think he should. If they crap the bed vs. the Marlins, then yeah, the season is probably over. It is a well timed series.

[catocony]

A quick calculation, if the Phillies go .500 the rest of the way (which is quite possible) they win 87.   Atlanta 86 (I think).

Correct.  The Phils and Braves have already fallen off their earlier paces, but are in the .550 range.  That's 89 wins.  If they continue to cool they should still end up in the mid/high 80s. 

If they both collapse, they might not even finish above .500.  However, for the Nats to clearly make it, they have to win a ton of games to get to high 80s.  I would not bank on both Atlanta and Philly tanking.  Backing into the baseball playoffs isn't easy. 

[Greg_SRT]

Correct.  The Phils and Braves have already fallen off their earlier paces, but are in the .550 range.  That's 89 wins.  If they continue to cool they should still end up in the mid/high 80s. 

If they both collapse, they might not even finish above .500.  However, for the Nats to clearly make it, they have to win a ton of games to get to high 80s.  I would not bank on both Atlanta and Philly tanking.  Backing into the baseball playoffs isn't easy.

[Natsinpwc]

Correct.  The Phils and Braves have already fallen off their earlier paces, but are in the .550 range.  That's 89 wins.  If they continue to cool they should still end up in the mid/high 80s. 

If they both collapse, they might not even finish above .500.  However, for the Nats to clearly make it, they have to win a ton of games to get to high 80s.  I would not bank on both Atlanta and Philly tanking.  Backing into the baseball playoffs isn't easy.

Phillies and Braves do not play again until the last week and a half and then have seven games against each other. So the Nats are not likely to be able to make up much ground then. They need to be a game or two behind by that time.

[Greg_SRT]

Big win against the Brewers.

It should squash they quit statements, but it won’t.

If they had quit already, they wouldn’t have come out 14 hours after that loss with a big win.

[rbw5t]

Unfortunately, I don't think 89 wins guarantees winning the division, but it could also take 92 or 95.  That's the position we've put ourselves in by playing .500 for nearly 2/3rds of the season.  I think the title should be more like "need to go 43-18 to take the division."  Maybe there isn't much difference, because in either case the point is we need to play way better than we've been playing all year.

[catocony]

I don't believe the Braves nor Phillies will win 90+ games.  I do believe they'll both win at least 83-85 games.

[Air Desmond]

I’ll give Roark credit. That was a big boy start today.

[welch]

Lose two, then win one. That's what the Nats have done since the beginning of June. If they had played decently -- just decently -- they would be even with the Phillies and Braves.

Just win half the remaining games, giving us an even chance of seeing a win every night. That's not "giving up" on the team. That's loyalty, in fact. This is a group of Nats fans...not a group that cares only about a division champ.

[Mathguy]

The Braves & Phillies barely have to play over .500 ball the rest of the way to reach 90 wins.  The Phillies are 57 - 44.  So to reach 90 wins, they only have to go 33 - 28 the remainder of the season.

I don't believe the Braves nor Phillies will win 90+ games.  I do believe they'll both win at least 83-85 games.

[Slateman]

A quick calculation, if the Phillies go .500 the rest of the way (which is quite possible) they win 87.   Atlanta 86 (I think).

I think you're vastly underestimating the Phillies. They have good pitching and I would expect them to add some more hitting.

[Natsinpwc]

I think you're vastly underestimating the Phillies. They have good pitching and I would expect them to add some more hitting.

A few weeks ago you said if the Nats catch the Braves they would win the division. Why change your mind now on the Phillies?

Their offense has been as bad as the Nats. If you look at run differential they should not be winning so much. But they are. Just might be their year. 

[dcpatti]

The Braves & Phillies barely have to play over .500 ball the rest of the way to reach 90 wins.  The Phillies are 57 - 44.  So to reach 90 wins, they only have to go 33 - 28 the remainder of the season.

The Braves are not playing .500 ball currently. They’re 7-10 in July.
Last month the Phillies finished 13-14, they’re doing better this month at 13-7 but that under-the-radar bad month could be repeated. Just like the Nats 20-7 April.

Not saying that it WILL happen— maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t— but there’s precedents for the Nats success and the Braves and Phillies cool-down, all in this season.

[Jeff in Gaithersburg]

Both the Braves and Phils have tough upcoming schedules and have been beating up on bad teams all season to get where they are. It doesn't look good but I don't think this thing is over yet. Braves are 7-10 in their last 17, 4 games with them in early August at Nats Park. 6 with the Phillies in August. Do well in those games plus a couple of good weeks for the Nats and a bad week or 2 for the Braves/Phils and Nats are right there by the end of August.

[Trea Burner]

It’s not so much what the Braves or Phillies are or are not doing.

The nats have that toxic stench. They are a team with underlying issues that go beyond just on field performance (or lack thereof).

You can see it in the body language.

They will not beat out the Phillies or Braves because they are incapable of fixing themselves.

[Ray D]

The nats have that toxic stench.

I think that characterization is near perfect.  And I don't see how that can possibly change without a new manager.  Might not change even with a new manager but ir sure won't change as long as Martinez is manager.  I think the time has come to fire him and I think there is some urgency. Who to replace him with shouldn't be too hard to figure out.  One of the assistant coaches will do fine.

[Jeff in Gaithersburg]

Five 2+ game winning streaks since mid-May: 2 - Padres (2), 6 - Marlins (3)/Orioles (3), 2 - Rays (2), 3 - Marlins (3), 2 - Brewers (1)/Marlins (1 so far).

Have to start beating the good teams.

[catocony]

So blowouts in Miami.  They have looked pretty solid the last three games.  Let's see if they can get four straight tomorrow night.

[catocony]

Tomorrow is a huge day.  If the Nats win, I think they probably add someone.  If they lose, I think they stand pat.  I don't see them being sellers at this point.

[Greg_SRT]

Tomorrow is a huge day.  If the Nats win, I think they probably add someone.  If they lose, I think they stand pat.  I don't see them being sellers at this point.

Agree. Got to win Sunday.

[UMDNats]

Tomorrow is a huge day.  If the Nats win, I think they probably add someone.  If they lose, I think they stand pat.  I don't see them being sellers at this point.

Sad that you're right. This franchise is doomed.

[UMDNats]

Five 2+ game winning streaks since mid-May: 2 - Padres (2), 6 - Marlins (3)/Orioles (3), 2 - Rays (2), 3 - Marlins (3), 2 - Brewers (1)/Marlins (1 so far).

Have to start beating the good teams.

"This is a World Series contender"

- our front office

[catocony]

2-2 in Miami is disappointing, but with the Phillies going 1-3 in Cincinnati, the Nats are in the middle of the can't sell/can't buy zone.