Those right there are made up numbers sir or ma'am.
Had the throw been off target he scores. They should have ran for Adams, no doubt. But if they didn't send him with 2 outs to try to tie... they will be too cautious.
The 30% chance is not made up. It's in the ballpark of someone with a
bad OBP because I'm generously assuming the next hitter would've been bad.
The .001% chance is admittedly sort of pulled out of my ass, but not entirely far off either. How often do we see an outfielder make such an egregious error on a routine play such as that where the result is letting someone as slow as Adams score? Not very often at all. The probability is so small that it's negligible.
Even an off-line throw would've resulted in either an out anyway or a *very* close play. Again, Adams wasn't even four steps away from third base when the ball hit the glove.
