Author Topic: 2018 bullpen (Read 44603 times)

NatsAllThe Way · « **Reply #25 on:** March 19, 2018, 06:17:28 pm »

Quote from: mitlen on March 19, 2018, 06:14:16 pm

Take some Loonies, go to Canadian Tire and get a flat of Alpine.

Alpine is much cheaper in New Brunswick. I'll pick up 2 flats next trip down.

NatsAllThe Way · « **Reply #26 on:** March 19, 2018, 06:21:03 pm »

... LOL @ using loonies, Canadian Tire and Alpine in the same sentence, in context. That's some wicked writing skills right there.

mitlen · « **Reply #27 on:** March 19, 2018, 06:50:58 pm »

Quote from: NatsAllThe Way on March 19, 2018, 06:21:03 pm

... LOL @ using loonies, Canadian Tire and Alpine in the same sentence, in context. That's some wicked writing skills right there.

It concerns me that it came so easily. Like I've done it.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #28 on:** March 19, 2018, 07:07:22 pm »

Quote from: NatsAllThe Way on March 19, 2018, 05:39:50 pm

Well I'm calling it now: From what I can tell we'll finish 3rd in the division. Mets and Braves duke it out until the end for the division.

So many holes in the lineup with Murphy still likely to miss significant time, only 2 starting pitchers we can really trust and a bullpen that doesn't look much better than at the start of last year.

We were outscored 19-1 the last 2 days. Well get used to it, it's going to be a long 6 months.

You can book that, Danos!

I'm most worried about the starting pitching. The lineup should be OK even with Murphy out for a little while. Adding Eaton. And I hope a full year of Trea Turner. Wieters can't be any worse, can he? The bullpen will be much better than it was at the beginning of last year with Madson and Doolittle. Resiging Kintzler was a mistake--should have stuck with Fat Albers. Worried about the starters. As you state only two are really reliable and one of those always develops some injury and misses time. Roark was bad last year. Gio is not getting any younger.

They should still be able to win the division but someone might challenge them for a while at least.

And no reason for optimism beyond 2018 for the starters.

bluestreak · « **Reply #29 on:** March 19, 2018, 08:05:01 pm »

Wieters is due for, at the very least, a dead cat bounce. Turner should play close to a full year. So should Eaton. Harper and Murphy are in contract years. And you have two of the best three starters in the league. Come on folks.

Slateman · « **Reply #30 on:** March 19, 2018, 08:31:12 pm »

Quote from: NatsAllThe Way on March 19, 2018, 06:12:06 pm

There's no half-measures with me I guess.

You should start the LOD thread

varoadking · « **Reply #31 on:** March 19, 2018, 08:31:49 pm »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on March 19, 2018, 07:07:22 pm

I'm most worried about the starting pitching. The lineup should be OK even with Murphy out for a little while. Adding Eaton. And I hope a full year of Trea Turner. Wieters can't be any worse, can he? The bullpen will be much better than it was at the beginning of last year with Madson and Doolittle. Resiging Kintzler was a mistake--should have stuck with Fat Albers. Worried about the starters. As you state only two are really reliable and one of those always develops some injury and misses time. Roark was bad last year. Gio is not getting any younger.

They should still be able to win the division but someone might challenge them for a while at least.

And no reason for optimism beyond 2018 for the starters.

Agreed on Albers...we should have signed him and not Kintzler...

Mattionals · « **Reply #32 on:** March 19, 2018, 08:55:11 pm »

Quote from: varoadking on March 19, 2018, 08:31:49 pm

Agreed on Albers...we should have signed him and not Kintzler...

Would have passed on both and signed Neshek.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #33 on:** March 19, 2018, 09:39:57 pm »

Quote from: Mattionals on March 19, 2018, 08:55:11 pm

Would have passed on both and signed Neshek.

That could have worked also.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #34 on:** March 19, 2018, 09:40:34 pm »

Quote from: bluestreak on March 19, 2018, 08:05:01 pm

Wieters is due for, at the very least, a dead cat bounce. Turner should play close to a full year. So should Eaton. Harper and Murphy are in contract years. And you have two of the best three starters in the league. Come on folks.

How do you feel about the other three starting pitchers?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #35 on:** March 20, 2018, 09:26:59 am »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on March 19, 2018, 09:40:34 pm

How do you feel about the other three starting pitchers?

I'm comfortable for the regular season with both Gio and Roark.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #36 on:** March 20, 2018, 10:06:41 am »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on March 20, 2018, 09:26:59 am

I'm comfortable for the regular season with both Gio and Roark.

Not me. Gio has been skating on the edge for years. I think this is the year he falls off. Hoping Tanner bounces back. And beyond this year, Max is bound to regress.

Ray D · « **Reply #37 on:** March 20, 2018, 10:12:42 am »

If Gio and Roarke consistently pitch against the oppositions #3 and #4 -- it doesn't always synch up that way, but to the extend that it does -- we'll win more than half of those games, and probably the same can be said for #5. Scherzer and Strasburg, we'll win two thirds of the games they start. Do the math, that's about 93 wins.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #38 on:** March 20, 2018, 10:14:57 am »

Quote from: Ray D on March 20, 2018, 10:12:42 am

If Gio and Roarke consistently pitch against the oppositions #3 and #4 -- it doesn't always synch up that way, but to the extend that it does -- we'll win more than half of those games, and probably the same can be said for #5. Scherzer and Strasburg, we'll win two thirds of the games they start. Do the math, that's about 93 wins.

Count me as skeptical on those stats. I do think they can win 90 this year. Lineup is good and back end of the pen has been fixed.

Ray D · « **Reply #39 on:** March 20, 2018, 10:26:59 am »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on March 20, 2018, 10:14:57 am

Count me as skeptical on those stats. I do think they can win 90 this year.

93? 90? 90 is probably more accurate, because my math was based on Scherzer and Strasburg healthy all season, and also, optimal matchups.

bluestreak · « **Reply #40 on:** March 20, 2018, 01:26:06 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on March 20, 2018, 10:26:59 am

93? 90? 90 is probably more accurate, because my math was based on Scherzer and Strasburg healthy all season, and also, optimal matchups.

Why would you assume this team would win less games than last year? The Bullpen should be good the entire year, Eaton is back and hopefully you'll get close to a full year of Turner and Harper. I mean if you argue that Gio will revert back to his fundementals, then You would need to think the same for Roark, which means its a wash. I mean all or none of those things could happen, so nothing is a sure thing, but to make an a priori assumption that the team will be worse than last year seems especially pessimistic, even for this board.

tomterp · « **Reply #41 on:** March 20, 2018, 01:34:06 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on March 20, 2018, 10:26:59 am

93? 90? 90 is probably more accurate, because my math was based on Scherzer and Strasburg healthy all season, and also, optimal matchups.

Baseball Prospectus only has us forecasted at 88 wins, vs. Mets and Phillies at 81.

In other divisions, Cubs 92, Dodgers 97.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #42 on:** March 20, 2018, 01:40:15 pm »

Janes had a nice piece today discussing the implications of Rizzo saying Cole has made the 25 man roster. Most likely, that means Hellickson starts in AAA for April. Cole gets 1st pop at the 5th slot. She figures a 7-man bullpen with the 5 veterans with guarantees as initial locks - Doo, Madsen, Kintzler, Kelly, and Benoit. That leaves 2 slots for lefties in her mind. Her expectation is one goes to Solis, that Tiny Tim stays gets sent back to the minors to wait for a spot to open up, and she tabs Grace as being more likely to be kept than Romero because Grace has been stretched to go multiple innings, a need to fill if her other 6 are right. This would leave Romero on the outs without an option. Later, she suspects Hellickson takes over the 6th slot if he's in decent condition and Cole shifts back to the pen, pushing aside one of Benoit or Kelly, assuming no injuries and they both aren't at their best.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2018/03/20/a-j-cole-will-make-the-opening-day-roster-whats-that-mean-for-the-nats-bullpen/

I have a hunch that, more likely than not, this team does not break with both Kelley and Benoit. Those aren't killer contracts if it comes to cutting them; if not, then there could be some sort of injury they detect. There's a chance they move Romero because someone always will give a lefty who throws 100 mph a chance, but I sort of see Romero, Gott or Collins as better options than Benoit or perhaps Kelley.

aBaltoNat · « **Reply #43 on:** March 20, 2018, 01:46:59 pm »

I thought that Hellicksons deal has it so he can opt out every 15 days if he wasn't in the majors?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #44 on:** March 20, 2018, 01:48:02 pm »

Quote from: aBaltoNat on March 20, 2018, 01:46:59 pm

I thought that Hellicksons deal has it so he can opt out every 15 days if he wasn't in the majors?

that starts on 5/1 or 4/30.

varoadking · « **Reply #45 on:** March 20, 2018, 01:48:46 pm »

Quote from: aBaltoNat on March 20, 2018, 01:46:59 pm

I thought that Hellicksons deal has it so he can opt out every 15 days if he wasn't in the majors?

After May 1st, I think...

Ray D · « **Reply #46 on:** March 20, 2018, 03:20:02 pm »

Quote from: bluestreak on March 20, 2018, 01:26:06 pm

Why would you assume this team would win less games than last year?

Easy. We will win far less games against NL East teams than last year.

Mattionals · « **Reply #47 on:** March 21, 2018, 11:00:00 am »

Benoit to start the season on the DL. Forearm strain.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #48 on:** March 21, 2018, 11:37:08 am »

Quote from: Mattionals on March 21, 2018, 11:00:00 am

Benoit to start the season on the DL. Forearm strain.

Ok, that takes care of one road block. So, that lines up the righties as Madsen, Kintzler, and Kelley, and go with 4 lefties - Doo, Romero, Solis, and Grace. Kelley and Romero move from "endangered" to "threatened" species.

Cole in the rotation initially.

Mattionals · « **Reply #49 on:** March 21, 2018, 11:40:18 am »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on March 21, 2018, 11:37:08 am

Ok, that takes care of one road block. So, that lines up the righties as Madsen, Kintzler, and Kelley, and go with 4 lefties - Doo, Romero, Solis, and Grace. Kelley and Romero move from "endangered" to "threatened" species.

Cole in the rotation initially.

I think they make up an illness for Romero honestly. Gott has been good in ST and deserves a spot.