Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[rileyn]

This is also in another thread, but thought it was appropriate here as well.......

From Eddie Matz:

Harper through April 30:  38 walks, 21 strikeouts

May 1 through yesterday:  9 walks, 34 strikeouts.

[PowerBoater69]

This is also in another thread, but thought it was appropriate here as well.......

From Eddie Matz:

Harper through April 30:  38 walks, 21 strikeouts

May 1 through yesterday:  9 walks, 34 strikeouts.

9 extra base hits through 4/30
15 since 5/1

[Smithian]

This is also in another thread, but thought it was appropriate here as well.......

From Eddie Matz:

Harper through April 30:  38 walks, 21 strikeouts .247/.458/.528

May 1 through yesterday:  9 walks, 34 strikeouts .219/.280/.526

I added the slashlines.

Bryce Harper is having a good, not great season after back to back good, not great seasons. He didn't lead the Nats in fWAR either of the past two seasons and this year is just behind Turner at moment, but I think Rendon is due to turn it on and have a ridiculous stretch that pushes him ahead. Harper is probably going to end up around 5 WAR this season, unless he slumps.

Am I the only person who is starting to wonder if he is really worth the massive contact? That 2015 season was amazing, but I am starting to think Harper is a really good hitter but not great. If he gets a $300+ million contract then it is based on that one season and the hype coming in.

Give me Rendon extension and a free agent corner outfielder for the price fo Harper.

[mdnatsfan]

Am I the only person who is starting to wonder if he is really worth the massive contact? That 2015 season was amazing, but I am starting to think Harper is a really good hitter but not great. If he gets a $300+ million contract then it is based on that one season and the hype coming in.

Of course you aren't. I posted a few weeks ago that his miserable BA alone makes him not worth the money. Of course a few other posters responded with all kinds of reasons why BA shouldn't matter, and that his BAPP or BIPP, or whatever it is, "is really good".

But I contend that it is perfectly plain for all to see that Harper will never really justify the huge contract that some MLB team MIGHT offer him. Hopefully not the Nats. And I loved the idea or the promise of Harper. But he just isn't "generational". Mike Trout is.

[imref]

I added the slashlines.

Bryce Harper is having a good, not great season after back to back good, not great seasons. He didn't lead the Nats in fWAR either of the past two seasons and this year is just behind Turner at moment, but I think Rendon is due to turn it on and have a ridiculous stretch that pushes him ahead. Harper is probably going to end up around 5 WAR this season, unless he slumps.

Am I the only person who is starting to wonder if he is really worth the massive contact? That 2015 season was amazing, but I am starting to think Harper is a really good hitter but not great. If he gets a $300+ million contract then it is based on that one season and the hype coming in.

Give me Rendon extension and a free agent corner outfielder for the price fo Harper.

at this point I don't see how you can justify breaking the bank on Harper, especially in light of Soto's development.  An OF for the next two years of Soto/Robles/Eaton has the potential to be very very good, and Taylor is still here as well.

[Smithian]

at this point I don't see how you can justify breaking the bank on Harper, especially in light of Soto's development.  An OF for the next two years of Soto/Robles/Eaton has the potential to be very very good, and Taylor is still here as well.

I've said many times, but I can't think of a situation where he is worth the money to the Nationals. I could understand if the Phillies or Yankees wanted to blow the bank up for him, but not the Nats.  He is really good, had a lot of fun watching him, but I now look at him as a short timer whose price will be too big for the Nats in a few months.

If Juan Soto turns his good start into a good season then the discussion should be over.

[skippy1999]

at this point I don't see how you can justify breaking the bank on Harper, especially in light of Soto's development.  An OF for the next two years of Soto/Robles/Eaton has the potential to be very very good, and Taylor is still here as well.

I think counting on Eaton to remain healthy for any extended period of time is delusional. 

I love Bryce.  Maybe the impending free agency is weighing on him or something but he is way better than he's shown this year, as we all know.  I want to keep him. 

[imref]

I think counting on Eaton to remain healthy for any extended period of time is delusional. 

Even if Eaton isn't healthy, you've got Taylor and Goodwin.

[skippy1999]

Even if Eaton isn't healthy, you've got Taylor and Goodwin.

They're not and never will be Bryce. 

[UMDNats]

My max for Harper is a pretty standard $20-25 million a year contract with opt-outs. He's really damn good but not other-worldly.

I don't see any team giving him much more. If they do, well, go enjoy Philly, Bryce.

[Smithian]

They're not and never will be Bryce. 

Bryce is making $20 million year. If Bryce leaves, it isn't like the Nats are going to throw there in hands in the air and say, "Damn! Now we have to platoon Goodwin and Bautista!"

Even if Soto stays strong and Robles comes back healthy, the Nationals are almost guaranteed to go out and pursue a big bat corner outfielder if they lose both Harper and Murphy.

[bluestreak]

Of course you aren't. I posted a few weeks ago that his miserable BA alone makes him not worth the money. Of course a few other posters responded with all kinds of reasons why BA shouldn't matter, and that his BAPP or BIPP, or whatever it is, "is really good".

But I contend that it is perfectly plain for all to see that Harper will never really justify the huge contract that some MLB team MIGHT offer him. Hopefully not the Nats. And I loved the idea or the promise of Harper. But he just isn't "generational". Mike Trout is.

I think most folks are in agreement that breaking the bank on Harper is probably not wise especially given the outfield situation.
But to say he’s not good just based on his batting average when there are many, many, other stats that give a more nuanced picture is just lazy. And I’m not even talking advanced stat. We’re talking OPS.

Mike Trout Will end up being the best player ever to play baseball. Pretty high bar to set.

[bluestreak]

Bryce is making $20 million year. If Bryce leaves, it isn't like the Nats are going to throw there in hands in the air and say, "Damn! Now we have to platoon Goodwin and Bautista!"

Even if Soto stays strong and Robles comes back healthy, the Nationals are almost guaranteed to go out and pursue a big bat corner outfielder if they lose both Harper and Murphy.

Why get an outfield bat when you have a great outfield in Soto/Robles/Eaton with MAT as the 4th? Get an infield bat to replace Murphy and then one to eventually replace Zimmerman. Like Machado.

[PowerBoater69]

Assuming that Harper is at the game wearing a Knights jersey, he gets massive boos tonight, right?

[imref]

Why get an outfield bat when you have a great outfield in Soto/Robles/Eaton with MAT as the 4th? Get an infield bat to replace Murphy and then one to eventually replace Zimmerman. Like Machado.

With no changes we're looking at a 2019 line up:

1. Eaton
2. Turner
3. Rendon
4. Zimmerman / Adams, if we bring him back, or his replacement
5. Soto
6. Robles
7. Difo
8. Catcher

The catcher slot is going to be difficult to upgrade without a trade that forces up to give up a top prospect.  The FA pickings at the end of 2018 look pretty slim.  I still think Kieboom arrives in 2019 as well.

[NJ Ave]

But to say he’s not good just based on his batting average when there are many, many, other stats that give a more nuanced picture is just lazy. And I’m not even talking advanced stat. We’re talking OPS.

Very few people are actually saying he's not good.

We've seen his peak as a batter - in 2015 he had the best batting season by a player SINCE BARRY BONDS. So....pretty good peak. We've also seen repeated seasons where something - ANYTHING - keeps him from reaching that peak. Nagging injuries, timing is off, being pitched around too much, more often than not its something holding him back.

Bryce (and Boras) want Bryce to be paid like peak Bryce, which is a player who deserves to blow out the richest contract in baseball history. And if anyone expects Bryce to be that player 6 or 7 or 8 times in a 10-year contract, I think we'd all play him, gladly. But no one really expects that anymore, because we have too much evidence to the contrary.

[aspenbubba]

Bryce is making $20 million year. If Bryce leaves, it isn't like the Nats are going to throw there in hands in the air and say, "Damn! Now we have to platoon Goodwin and Bautista!"

Even if Soto stays strong and Robles comes back healthy, the Nationals are almost guaranteed to go out and pursue a big bat corner outfielder if they lose both Harper and Murphy.

We have Eaton for three more years and Soto and Robles "forever". No need for a corner OF. Replace Murphy if we don't re-sign him  ( 2 years at max) or get Realumuto w/ Castro. We still need a FA starter ( preferably a lefty).

[Smithian]

Why get an outfield bat when you have a great outfield in Soto/Robles/Eaton with MAT as the 4th? Get an infield bat to replace Murphy and then one to eventually replace Zimmerman. Like Machado.

Soto is under 100 plate appearances and both Robles and Eaton will be coming off seasons with significant games missed due to injury.

[Count Walewski]

Bryce Harper is going to be seeking a relatively long contract, probably. So if the Nationals do not sign him, that isn't just 2018 offseason money that is saved, but money for several more offseasons to come. It does not strike me as absurd to say that over the course of the next half decade, the Nationals could use that saved money to sign several players, the sum of whom (plus the sum of players promoted from our minor leagues to play outfield) is greater than Bryce Harper even if all individual players involved are strictly his inferior.

[ChiliPalmer14]

My max for Harper is a pretty standard $20-25 million a year contract with opt-outs. He's really damn good but not other-worldly.

I don't see any team giving him much more. If they do, well, go enjoy Philly, Bryce.

This.  I enjoy watching him, and when he's having a "special" streak, it's awesome.  But from a team standpoint (and I love spending other people's money), if they keep him, make Soto a 1B/OF.  If not, then Soto in LF, Robles in CF, Eaton in RF with Taylor and Goodwin as the reserves.  None of them are Bryce, but it doesn't sound like the worst OF. 

Assuming they don't re-sign Bryce, Murphy, Gio or Madsen:
a) Extend Rendon, roll with Difo at 2B and spend on a starter and a reliever.
b) Extend Rendon, sign Machado (that's easy) and move Turner to 2B, hope for another Hellickson-type find late in FA and hope Fedde (or someone) can be a good #5.

If they do any one those things, then I'm not viewing the "window as closed", even if Bryce is gone. 

[Senatorswin]

One has to wonder with MLB attendance trending downward if teams are going to be willing to give the 10 year 30 million dollar contract to anyone anymore. Was last offseason an exception or a glimpse of the future. Supposedly the white sox had a game this year where the announced attendance was 10,377 because that was the amount of tickets sold. The number of people in the stands was 974. Also, I noticed the true doubleheader is being played a few times this year when there's a makeup game.

[bluestreak]

This.  I enjoy watching him, and when he's having a "special" streak, it's awesome.  But from a team standpoint (and I love spending other people's money), if they keep him, make Soto a 1B/OF.  If not, then Soto in LF, Robles in CF, Eaton in RF with Taylor and Goodwin as the reserves.  None of them are Bryce, but it doesn't sound like the worst OF. 

Assuming they don't re-sign Bryce, Murphy, Gio or Madsen:
a) Extend Rendon, roll with Difo at 2B and spend on a starter and a reliever.
b) Extend Rendon, sign Machado (that's easy) and move Turner to 2B, hope for another Hellickson-type find late in FA and hope Fedde (or someone) can be a good #5.

If they do any one those things, then I'm not viewing the "window as closed", even if Bryce is gone.

I’ll be interested to see what Joe Ross gives us post TJ surgery.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

AAARRGGGHH!  I almost hate to do this, but, Bluestreak - you realize Bryce is only #30 in WAR (9.4) among position players from 2016 to date?  He's not Trout (21.3), of course.  He sure as heck isn't Mookie Betts (17.9), either.  At this point, he's not Nolan Arenado (13+).  He's been outperformed by Anthony Rendon (12.2), Manny Machado (11. and Brian Dozier (12.1). 

It is really put up or shut up time for him.   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm going to be an "arm-chair GM" right now. This is how I would love to see 2018 Trade Deadline and going into 2019 pan out:

Scenario 1:

Trade a package of Carter Kieboom, Daniel Johnson, and Wil Crowe for J.T. Realmuto and Starlin Castro, taking on all of Castro's money.
Castro now bounces between 2B, 3B, and SS to give guys a day off, assuming everyone is healthy.
Off season, let Harper walk, sign Rendon to an extension, sign Murphy to play 1B, DFA Zim and send him into the FO as an adviser.
2019 lineup - Eaton RF, Turner SS, Murphy 1B, Rendon 3B, Soto LF, Realmuto C, Robles CF, Castro 2B, Pitcher

Scenario 2:

Trade a package of Carter Kieboom, Daniel Johnson, and Wil Crowe for J.T. Realmuto and Starlin Castro, taking on all of Castro's money.
Castro now bounces between 2B, 3B, and SS to give guys a day off, assuming everyone is healthy.
Off season, sign Harper to an extension with the intent of moving him to 1B and still send Zim to the FO. Move Rendon in a deal for a decent prospect.
2019 lineup: Eaton RF, Turner SS, Harper 1B, Realmuto C, Soto LF, Robles CF, Castro 2B, Pitcher, Difo 3B

I think Scenario 1 overall provides a better team (I value Rendon more than Harper as a 3B over a corner OF/1B bat) and more financial flexibility to fill other holes.

I kind of like Scenario #1 as well.

[varoadking]

Soto is under 100 plate appearances and both Robles and Eaton will be coming off seasons with significant games missed due to injury.

They'll all be fresh for the post-season...