Keith Law puts 6 Nationals prospects in his top 100. Giolito,Ross,Taylor,Cole,Turner & Lopez.
8 Lucas Giolito, RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 7/14/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-6WT: 255
W-L: 10-2ERA: 2.20IP: 98SO: 110BB: 28
One year after his return from Tommy John surgery, Giolito was on the mound at the Futures Game in Minneapolis, giving up a homer on a hanging curveball but otherwise looking outstanding for someone only about 23 months off the operation. His 2014 season was remarkable on its own, but even more so given the context of his injury and missed time, and when you consider that he hasn't even been allowed to use his two-seam fastball and is still developing his changeup, you can see why there seems to be no limit on how good he can ultimately be.
Giolito looks the part of a future ace, a 6-foot-6, 255-pound workhorse who'll sit 94-96 mph and can go get 98, getting good leverage from his height and working on sitting in the lower third of the zone with the pitch. He gets great angle and depth on the plus curveball, 79-83 and unhittable unless he hangs it (which he did in the Futures Game). His changeup is in the low 80s and he's continuing to throw it more, all but shelving his curveball in his last few starts of 2014 because he wanted to develop the change. When he reaches Double-A, he'll be able to restore his two-seamer and become a true four-pitch guy. Giolito looks like a 220-inning, sub-3 ERA guy in the making, and he should be ready to see the majors at some point in late 2016, which gives the Nationals a lot to consider when looking at the impending free agents in their currently loaded big-league rotation.
63 Joe Ross, RHPAGE: 21DOB: 5/21/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 205
W-L: 10-6ERA: 3.92IP: 121.2SO: 106BB: 29
Ross, the younger brother of Padres pitcher Tyson, had a mediocre 2013 season after missing much of 2012 with a sore shoulder, as neither his stuff nor command was consistent and his performance was disappointing. Last year he moved up to a tougher environment for pitchers, and everything ticked up, resulting in a late-season promotion to Double-A and his inclusion in the big, three-team trade that sent Wil Myers to San Diego. Ross will hit 97 mph but is most comfortable at 92-94 with good two-seam tailing life, the latter the result of a slightly lower arm slot the Padres hoped would take some pressure off his shoulder as well. He always has had excellent feel for a changeup, but the lower slot also gave him more tilt on his slider, an above-average to plus pitch, whereas he'd previously been caught between a slider and a curve.
Hitters find Ross' stuff hard to square up, and he's a slight ground ball pitcher. He's a good athlete and competitor who throws strikes, although his control is still ahead of his command. I thought he had a chance to be a No. 2 starter before his shoulder barked, and there's probably less of a chance now that he evolves into a 200-inning starter, but he could be a very effective No. 3 who throws 180 or so innings in peak years.
71 Michael Taylor, CFAGE: 23DOB: 3/26/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 210
AVG: .304OBP: .390OPS: .915HR: 23SB: 37
To their credit, the Nationals never lost faith in Taylor, not when he couldn't crack a .320 OBP until he was 22, not when he had to repeat high-A that year and still punched out 131 times. The former high school shortstop took to center field pretty quickly, but it took him a few years to fill out and grow into some power, with the help of a lot of work from the Nats' player development staff. Taylor's posture at the plate is better now, and he's better able to power through the baseball with significant torque from quick hip rotation. He hit 24 homers in 127 games across three levels last year, and he still could add some strength to his frame, although that might cost him some of his plus speed.
He has made a lot of progress at the plate, but it's all come fairly slowly, and given his contact issues and how quickly he gets the bat through the zone, I wouldn't be surprised if he took a year or two of major league at-bats to start posting adequate OBPs. He's a 70 defender in center and can impact the game with power and speed, with a chance to be a grade-60 regular in the majors once he gets 1,000 at-bats or so under his belt.
75 Reynaldo Lopez, RHPAGE: 21DOB: 1/4/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 185
W-L: 7-3ERA: 1.08IP: 83.1SO: 70BB: 26
Lopez was throwing just 87-90 mph when he first signed for a pittance as an 18-year-old amateur in 2012, but his velocity picked up rapidly once the Nationals got a hold of him, to the point where they had to shut him down for nearly all of 2013 to keep him healthy. He stayed on the mound for all of 2014, and his talent exploded: He'd reach 100 mph in many starts, wouldn't throw a pitch under 94 and would show a 60 or 70 grade curveball as long as he could stay at the top of his release point. Lopez had been a more lateral front-side guy, but the Nats raised his front side when he was with Auburn this summer so he could get on top of that breaking ball and generate more plane on the fastball, producing more ground balls and more consistent strikes as well. He gets good action on his nascent changeup but lacks feel for the pitch because he has barely used it.
After he returned to Hagerstown from Auburn in late July, he allowed one run in 39 innings, on a solo homer, punching out 34 guys against 23 total baserunners, with that homer being the only extra-base hit he surrendered. His ceiling is second only to Lucas Giolito among Nationals' starter prospects, and the main hurdle for him to get there is to build up the stamina to be a 30-start guy.
88 Trea Turner, SSAGE: 21DOB: 6/30/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 175
AVG: .323OBP: .406OPS: .854HR: 5SB: 23
Turner is technically still a Padre, because MLB is operating under a Dark Ages rule that prohibits teams from trading drafted players for a full year after they sign their first pro contracts, a rule that conflicts with the way a "player to be named" can be traded up to six months after the deal is completed. So now Turner gets to spend spring training and the first two months or so of 2015 playing for an organization that no longer has any stake in his future, and that's both wrong and dangerous. Turner himself is in an awful spot, because he's a good prospect who needs work in specific areas to become an above-average regular at shortstop.
He's a plus runner with the speed to stay at short but needs help on footwork to be able to make plays that require him to move well out of position and to be able to throw accurately from any spot. He has the bat speed to catch up to a good fastball but wraps his bat behind his head and can be a tick late getting the bat head into the zone. He could end up an average or slightly better defensive shortstop who hits .280-.300 with 40 steals a year, as long as he gets into an organization that is fully invested in his development.
98 A.J. Cole, RHPAGE: 23DOB: 1/5/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 200
W-L: 13-3ERA: 3.16IP: 134SO: 111BB: 32
Is there a worse place to be as a prospect than to be a starting pitcher at the top of Washington's farm system? All Tanner Roark did last year was post a 2.85 ERA in 198 2/3 innings, and he's expected to be out of the Nats' rotation. Cole could probably be someone's fifth starter now, certainly by midyear, but at the moment he's as blocked as any pitching prospect in baseball. Cole's results haven't quite matched his stuff -- the whole is less than the sum of the parts -- but both his slider and changeup have come a long way in the past 18 months, to the point where he looks like a true four-pitch pitcher who has the control to be at least a fourth starter. He works at 93-97 but still doesn't locate it that well within the zone; he could get all the way up to a No. 2 starter if he improves his fastball command and pitches more aggressively. He has also found a consistent arm slot that works for both his curveball, his main out pitch in high school, and his slider, which helps keep hitters from identifying pitches too easily.
Another half-season or so in Triple-A would probably help him, as he'll face a lot of hitters who have major league experience and will force him to work on his weaknesses. Once he gives up a little less hard contact, he'll be ready for someone to call him up, even if it takes a trade for that to happen.
