Election Prediction Contest

[JCA-CrystalCity]

 I'm focusing on races that are interesting, I/M/O, as well as few questions.  Incumbent seeking reelection designated with a  *.  In open races, party of current holder of the seat designated with #.  Races with independents or 3d party candidates currently polling above 10% have the non-major party candidate designated as "NMP."

2 points each correct answer, except Q. 25.  Bonus available for Q. 14. If you just want to do the first 10 questions, do that.  We'll call that the "Contest-Lite."

Will lock Monday at 10 PM EST. Feel free to modify before Monday at 10 PM. 

Senate
1. Will the Republican nominee win each of these 3 open seats currently held by Democrats - W. Va, SD, Montana?  Yes or no.
2.  New Hampshire: R - Brown, D - Shaheen*
3.  North Carolina: R - Tillis, D- Hagan*
4.  Kentucky: R- McConnell*, D- Grimes
5.  Iowa: R - Ernst, D - Braley#
6.  Arkansas: R - Cotton, D - Pryor*
7.  Kansas: R - Roberts*, NMP - Orman
8. Colorado: R: Gardner, D - Udall*
9. Alaska: R: Sullivan, D - Begich*
10. Will either Georgia or Louisiana have a candidate receiving over 50% of the vote on Tuesday and not need a runoff?  Yes / No
11.  Georgia: R - Perdue#,  D - Nunn
12.  Louisiana: R - Cassidy, D - Landrieu *, Other
13.  If Orman wins in Kansas, will he caucus with the Rs or the Ds?  R/D
14.  Will any other state switch party representation in the Senate this election? Yes / No
      Bonus - if you answered yes, name the state or states (1 point each)
Governors
15. Maryland: R - Hogan, D- Brown#
16. Maine: R - LePage*, D- Michaud, NMP- Cutler
17. Alaska: R - Parnell*, NMP - Walker
18. Conn.:  R - Foley, D - Malloy*
19. Fla.   :   R - Scott*, D - Crist
20. Wis.  :   R - Walker*, D - Burke
21. Kansas: R - Brownback*, D - Davis
22. Colo. :   R - Beauprez, D - Hickenlooper*
23. Illinois:  R - Rauner, D - Quinn*
24. Michig:  R - Snyder*, D - Schauer
25.  Which of the following states will not switch parties (one point each keep correctly called)?
   - Pennsylvania (R*)
   - Arkansas (D#)
   - Massachusetts (D#)
   - Georgia (R*)

[mitlen]

Senate
1. Will the Republican nominee win each of these 3 open seats currently held by Democrats - W. Va, SD, Montana?  Yes or no.  No
2.  New Hampshire: R - Brown, D - Shaheen*    Shaheen (no carpet baggers  )
3.  North Carolina: R - Tillis, D- Hagan*              Hagan
4.  Kentucky: R- McConnell*, D- Grimes            Grimes (please please please   ....   uh yup)
5.  Iowa: R - Ernst, D - Braley#                          Ernst
6.  Arkansas: R - Cotton, D - Pryor*                  Pryor
7.  Kansas: R - Roberts*, NMP - Orman             Orman
8. Colorado: R: Gardner, D - Udall*                   Udall
9. Alaska: R: Sullivan, D - Begich*                     Sullivan
10. Will either Georgia or Louisiana have a candidate receiving over 50% of the vote on Tuesday and not need a runoff?  Yes / No   
11.  Georgia: R - Perdue#,  D - Nunn                                                            Y      Nunn
12.  Louisiana: R - Cassidy, D - Landrieu *, Other                                         N      Landrieu in the runoff (she can buy more votes)
13.  If Orman wins in Kansas, will he caucus with the Rs or the Ds?  R/D     R
14.  Will any other state switch party representation in the Senate this election? Yes / No    Yes but hopefully not VA 
      Bonus - if you answered yes, name the state or states (1 point each)
Governors
15. Maryland: R - Hogan, D- Brown#                         Brown (carry Baltimore and PG by wide margins; split Montgomery ...  that ought to do it)
16. Maine: R - LePage*, D- Michaud, NMP- Cutler      LePage (ebola response puts him over the top  ...   fear sells)
17. Alaska: R - Parnell*, NMP - Walker                        Parnell
18. Conn.:  R - Foley, D - Malloy*                              Malloy
19. Fla.   :   R - Scott*, D - Crist                                Scott
20. Wis.  :   R - Walker*, D - Burke                            Walker
21. Kansas: R - Brownback*, D - Davis                     Brownback
22. Colo. :   R - Beauprez, D - Hickenlooper*            Hickenlooper (reefer sells)
23. Illinois:  R - Rauner, D - Quinn*                           Quinn   (vote early vote often in Cook CO)
24. Michig:  R - Snyder*, D - Schauer                       Snyder
25.  Which of the following states will not switch parties (one point each keep correctly called)?
   - Pennsylvania (R*)      Will (one can only hope)
   - Arkansas (D#)           Not
   - Massachusetts (D#)  Not
   - Georgia (R*)              Not

[Terpfan76]

Please win Hogan...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Please win Hogan...

If he does not win, he can always open a sandwich shop or go on TV. You know, Hogan's Heroes? 

There used to be a subshop in Cambridge MA by that name.

Mitlen, pick who wins in GA and LA. 

[mitlen]

If he does not win, he can always open a sandwich shop or go on TV. You know, Hogan's Heroes? 

There used to be a subshop in Cambridge MA by that name.

Mitlen, pick who wins in GA and LA. 

Does that make Terpfan Schultz?   "Please win Hogan."

[Terpfan76]

[mitlen]

(Image removed from quote.)

 

Well done.

[comish4lif]

I'm focusing on races that are interesting, I/M/O, as well as few questions.  Incumbent seeking reelection designated with a  *.  In open races, party of current holder of the seat designated with #.  Races with independents or 3d party candidates currently polling above 10% have the non-major party candidate designated as "NMP."

2 points each correct answer, except Q. 25.  Bonus available for Q. 14.

Will lock Monday at 10 PM EST. Feel free to modify before Monday at 10 PM. 

Senate
1. Will the Republican nominee win each of these 3 open seats currently held by Democrats - W. Va, SD, Montana?  Yes or no.
2.  New Hampshire: R - Brown, D - Shaheen*
3.  North Carolina: R - Tillis, D- Hagan*
4.  Kentucky: R- McConnell*, D- Grimes
5.  Iowa: R - Ernst, D - Braley#
6.  Arkansas: R - Cotton, D - Pryor*
7.  Kansas: R - Roberts*, NMP - Orman
8. Colorado: R: Gardner, D - Udall*
9. Alaska: R: Sullivan, D - Begich*
10. Will either Georgia or Louisiana have a candidate receiving over 50% of the vote on Tuesday and not need a runoff?  Yes / No
11.  Georgia: R - Perdue#,  D - Nunn
12.  Louisiana: R - Cassidy, D - Landrieu *, Other
13.  If Orman wins in Kansas, will he caucus with the Rs or the Ds?  R/D
14.  Will any other state switch party representation in the Senate this election? Yes / No
      Bonus - if you answered yes, name the state or states (1 point each)
Governors
15. Maryland: R - Hogan, D- Brown#
16. Maine: R - LePage*, D- Michaud, NMP- Cutler
17. Alaska: R - Parnell*, NMP - Walker
18. Conn.:  R - Foley, D - Malloy*
19. Fla.   :   R - Scott*, D - Crist
20. Wis.  :   R - Walker*, D - Burke
21. Kansas: R - Brownback*, D - Davis
22. Colo. :   R - Beauprez, D - Hickenlooper*
23. Illinois:  R - Rauner, D - Quinn*
24. Michig:  R - Snyder*, D - Schauer
25.  Which of the following states will not switch parties (one point each keep correctly called)?
   - Pennsylvania (R*)
   - Arkansas (D#)
   - Massachusetts (D#)
   - Georgia (R*)

Democrats across the board in a big, crazy sweep!

[imref]

Senate
1. Will the Republican nominee win each of these 3 open seats currently held by Democrats - W. Va, SD, Montana?  Yes or no. Yes
2.  New Hampshire: R - Brown, D - Shaheen* Shaheen
3.  North Carolina: R - Tillis, D- Hagan* Hagan
4.  Kentucky: R- McConnell*, D- Grimes McConnell (Sadly)
5.  Iowa: R - Ernst, D - Braley# Ernst
6.  Arkansas: R - Cotton, D - Pryor* Cotton
7.  Kansas: R - Roberts*, NMP - Orman Orman
8. Colorado: R: Gardner, D - Udall* Gardner
9. Alaska: R: Sullivan, D - Begich* Begich
10. Will either Georgia or Louisiana have a candidate receiving over 50% of the vote on Tuesday and not need a runoff?  Yes / No No
11.  Georgia: R - Perdue#,  D - Nunn Nunn
12.  Louisiana: R - Cassidy, D - Landrieu *, Other Run-off
13.  If Orman wins in Kansas, will he caucus with the Rs or the Ds?  R/D R's
14.  Will any other state switch party representation in the Senate this election? Yes / No No
      Bonus - if you answered yes, name the state or states (1 point each)
Governors
15. Maryland: R - Hogan, D- Brown# Brown
16. Maine: R - LePage*, D- Michaud, NMP- Cutler LePage (even more sadly)
17. Alaska: R - Parnell*, NMP - Walker Walker
18. Conn.:  R - Foley, D - Malloy* Malloy
19. Fla.   :   R - Scott*, D - Crist Crist
20. Wis.  :   R - Walker*, D - Burke Walker (just as sadly)
21. Kansas: R - Brownback*, D - Davis Davis
22. Colo. :   R - Beauprez, D - Hickenlooper* Hickenlooper
23. Illinois:  R - Rauner, D - Quinn* Quinn
24. Michig:  R - Snyder*, D - Schauer Snyder
25.  Which of the following states will not switch parties (one point each keep correctly called)?
   - Pennsylvania (R*)
   - Arkansas (D#)
   - Massachusetts (D#)
   - Georgia (R*)

Only MA will "not" switch parties.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Senate
1. Will the Republican nominee win each of these 3 open seats currently held by Democrats - W. Va, SD, Montana?  Yes or no. yes
2.  New Hampshire: R - Brown, D - Shaheen* Shaheen
3.  North Carolina: R - Tillis, D- Hagan* Hagan
4.  Kentucky: R- McConnell*, D- Grimes McConnell
5.  Iowa: R - Ernst, D - Braley# Ernst  lost too much respect for Iowa
6.  Arkansas: R - Cotton, D - Pryor* Cotton
7.  Kansas: R - Roberts*, NMP - Orman Roberts
8. Colorado: R: Gardner, D - Udall* Gardner
9. Alaska: R: Sullivan, D - Begich* Sullivan
10. Will either Georgia or Louisiana have a candidate receiving over 50% of the vote on Tuesday and not need a runoff?  Yes / No Yes
11.  Georgia: R - Perdue#,  D - Nunn Perdue - no runoff
12.  Louisiana: R - Cassidy, D - Landrieu *, Other Cassidy in runoff
13.  If Orman wins in Kansas, will he caucus with the Rs or the Ds?  R/D R
14.  Will any other state switch party representation in the Senate this election? Yes / No No
      Bonus - if you answered yes, name the state or states (1 point each)
Governors
15. Maryland: R - Hogan, D- Brown# Brown
16. Maine: R - LePage*, D- Michaud, NMP- Cutler Michaud
17. Alaska: R - Parnell*, NMP - Walker Walker
18. Conn.:  R - Foley, D - Malloy* Foley
19. Fla.   :   R - Scott*, D - Crist Crist  A man, A tan, A Fan!
20. Wis.  :   R - Walker*, D - Burke Burke  Next bike is a Trek if this happens
21. Kansas: R - Brownback*, D - Davis Davis
22. Colo. :   R - Beauprez, D - Hickenlooper* Beauprez  Bad night for the Ds in Colorado
23. Illinois:  R - Rauner, D - Quinn* Quinn  how I don't know
24. Michig:  R - Snyder*, D - Schauer Snyder
25.  Which of the following states will not switch parties (one point each keep correctly called)?
   - Pennsylvania (R*)
   - Arkansas (D#)
   - Massachusetts (D#)
   - Georgia (R*)  Only Georgia does not switch

Subject to modification before Monday 10 PM.

[Natsinpwc]

I was going to do this but would have to think. So I will pass.
Looks like another couple of years of gridlock followed by more gridlock after that. Maybe that's not so bad as the economy is getting better.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Please win Hogan...

Hollywood Hogan has about a good of a chance at winning the governor's mansion in Maryland as Manny Acta has of winning a World Series.

[Terpfan76]

Doesn't mean I can't hope... even if a exercise in futility

[nats2playoffs]

I've known Larry Hogan since I was a kid. I voted for him in Early Voting. The latest poll shows a dead heat: Brown 46%, Hogan 44%. Getting out the vote will decide this election.

40 new taxes in the last 8 years and a new entitlement promised by Brown that he can't pay for (free public pre-school for 4-year-olds, putting private pre-schools out of business) should be the last straw.

Brown botched the one thing he was assigned to do. His attempted roll out of the MD Obamacare web site, resulted in a site that never worked, a $280 million loss, and 10,000 people losing their health insurance in MD.

There's even a referendum question on the ballot, to BAN the Maryland government from continuing to steal from the Transportation Fund, to pay for the O'Malley-Brown and the Democrat-controlled legislature's deficits. That money was earmarked for road improvements and construction, not to pay off O'Malley-Brown's cronies.

[mitlen]

(Image removed from quote.)

I've known Larry Hogan since I was a kid. I voted for him in Early Voting. 40 new taxes in the last 8 years and a new entitlement promised by Brown that he can't pay for (free public pre-school for 4-year-olds, putting private pre-schools out of business) should be the last straw.

Brown botched the one thing he was assigned to do. His attempted roll out of the MD Obamacare web site, resulted in a site that never worked, a $280 million loss, and 10,000 people losing their health insurance in MD.

There's even a referendum question on the ballot, to BAN the Maryland government from continuing to steal from the Transportation Fund, to pay for the O'Malley-Brown and the Democrat-controlled legislature's deficits. That money was earmarked for road improvements and construction, not to pay off O'Malley-Brown's cronies.

It's the SOS  DWD.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Let's keep the candidate advocacy in the uncensored section.   

Is it too hard to answer 25 questions?  I think the governors' stuff is more interesting, but the Senate is probably easier.   If you want to just do the Senate races, then go ahead.

[imref]

(Image removed from quote.)

I've known Larry Hogan since I was a kid. I voted for him in Early Voting. The latest poll shows a dead heat: Brown 46%, Hogan 44%. Getting out the vote will decide this election.

40 new taxes in the last 8 years and a new entitlement promised by Brown that he can't pay for (free public pre-school for 4-year-olds, putting private pre-schools out of business) should be the last straw.

Brown botched the one thing he was assigned to do. His attempted roll out of the MD Obamacare web site, resulted in a site that never worked, a $280 million loss, and 10,000 people losing their health insurance in MD.

There's even a referendum question on the ballot, to BAN the Maryland government from continuing to steal from the Transportation Fund, to pay for the O'Malley-Brown and the Democrat-controlled legislature's deficits. That money was earmarked for road improvements and construction, not to pay off O'Malley-Brown's cronies.

i used to watch his uncle Hulk when I was a kid.

[1995hoo]

This is all too complicated. I haven't even decided whether to vote for Warner or Gillespie yet.

[WerthHisWeight]

Senate
1. Will the Republican nominee win each of these 3 open seats currently held by Democrats - W. Va, SD, Montana?  Yes or no.  No.
2.  New Hampshire: R - Brown, D - Shaheen*  Shaheen
3.  North Carolina: R - Tillis, D- Hagan* Tillis
4.  Kentucky: R- McConnell*, D- Grimes  McConnell
5.  Iowa: R - Ernst, D - Braley#  Ernst
6.  Arkansas: R - Cotton, D - Pryor*  Cotton
7.  Kansas: R - Roberts*, NMP - Orman  Orman
8. Colorado: R: Gardner, D - Udall*  Udall
9. Alaska: R: Sullivan, D - Begich*  Begich
10. Will either Georgia or Louisiana have a candidate receiving over 50% of the vote on Tuesday and not need a runoff?  Yes / No  Yes
11.  Georgia: R - Perdue#,  D - Nunn  Nunn
12.  Louisiana: R - Cassidy, D - Landrieu *, Other  Cassidy
13.  If Orman wins in Kansas, will he caucus with the Rs or the Ds?  R/D  Rs
14.  Will any other state switch party representation in the Senate this election? Yes / No  Yes
      Bonus - if you answered yes, name the state or states (1 point each)  VA
Governors
15. Maryland: R - Hogan, D- Brown#  Brown
16. Maine: R - LePage*, D- Michaud, NMP- Cutler  Michaud
17. Alaska: R - Parnell*, NMP - Walker  Parnell
18. Conn.:  R - Foley, D - Malloy*  Malloy
19. Fla.   :   R - Scott*, D - Crist  Crist
20. Wis.  :   R - Walker*, D - Burke  Walker
21. Kansas: R - Brownback*, D - Davis  Brownback
22. Colo. :   R - Beauprez, D - Hickenlooper*  Beauprez
23. Illinois:  R - Rauner, D - Quinn*  Quinn
24. Michig:  R - Snyder*, D - Schauer  Snyder
25.  Which of the following states will not switch parties (one point each keep correctly called)?
   - Pennsylvania (R*)  Switch
   - Arkansas (D#)  No switch
   - Massachusetts (D#)  No switch
   - Georgia (R*)  No switch

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This is all too complicated. I haven't even decided whether to vote for Warner or Gillespie yet.

Just do the first 10 Senate questions and picks if that is easier.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I used to be very good at this back in the early '90s.  I think I got 48 out 50 right in 1994, doing a mix of Senate, House, and Governors races.  I may have done all 34 or so Senate races, so that was not as hard as it sounds.

[varoadking]

I am going to predict a 100% Demorat sweep.  That way, any victories by the Right will seem huge...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I am going to predict a 100% Demorat sweep.  That way, any victories by the Right will seem huge...

wuss.  pick what you think will happen.

[varoadking]

wuss.  pick what you think will happen.

I have no idea...I gave up predicting elections when W beat the guy that invented the internet.

[Mathguy]

I am going to predict a 100% Republican't sweep.  That way, any victories by the Left will seem huge...