Author Topic: Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations (Read 20913 times)

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #150 on:** May 25, 2007, 11:04:56 am »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 48 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R H HR RBI BB SB     BA     OBP     SLG
519   64   138   16   81   81   10   0.2659   0.3785   0.4624
Adam Dunn, CIN, is on a pace for:
AB     R H HR RBI BB SB     BA     OBP     SLG
563   114   145   40   91   91   23   0.2575   0.3638   0.5329

shoeshineboy · « **Reply #151 on:** May 25, 2007, 11:40:38 am »

Quote from: nats2playoffs on May 25, 2007, 11:04:56 am

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 48 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R H    HR RBI BB   SB      BA     OBP     SLG
519   64   138   16   81   81   10   0.2659   0.3785   0.4624

Adam Dunn, CIN, is on a pace for:
AB     R H    HR RBI BB   SB      BA     OBP     SLG
563   114   145   40   91   91   23   0.2575   0.3638   0.5329

Adam Dunn: $10,500,000
Ryan Church: $395,000

tomterp · « **Reply #152 on:** May 25, 2007, 11:47:17 am »

There's a huge ballpark difference, too. Playing half your games in RFK vs. Great American Ballpark really affects the totals. Comparing the two directly by VORP, which adjusts for ballpark differences:

Dunn 43rd overall (both leagues) with VORP = 14.8
Church 64th, 12.2

So a 2.6 run difference year to date, but at 1/26th the cost.

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #153 on:** May 27, 2007, 01:03:49 pm »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 50 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
528 64 142 16 81 77 9 0.2689 0.3744 0.4640

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #154 on:** May 28, 2007, 10:23:37 pm »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 51 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
530 66 139 15 79 79 9 0.2623 0.3704 0.4491

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #155 on:** May 30, 2007, 11:55:30 am »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 52 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
532 65 137 15 77 77 9 0.2575 0.3639 0.4398

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #156 on:** May 31, 2007, 02:01:55 pm »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 53 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
528 64 137 15 76 79 9 0.2595 0.3683 0.4413

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #157 on:** June 01, 2007, 11:03:29 am »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 54 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
531 66 141 18 81 81 9 0.2655 0.3750 0.4633/size]
Ryan Church went 2-for-4 with one run, one walk, one homer and two RBI during Thursday's game against the Dodgers. It was his sixth homer of the season, but first since May 23 and just third in May. I think he got caught trying to steal; he needs to boost that number and hit more homers.

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #158 on:** June 02, 2007, 07:07:09 pm »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 55 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
533 64 141 17 79 79 8 0.2645 0.3708 0.4540

KyleScha · « **Reply #159 on:** June 03, 2007, 05:13:16 am »

I think Church is going to get hot sometime soon. He really hasn't been since the start of the season.

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #160 on:** June 03, 2007, 01:18:29 pm »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 56 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
535 63 138 17 78 78 8 0.2579 0.3638 0.4449

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #161 on:** June 04, 2007, 02:51:25 pm »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 57 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
537 62 139 17 76 76 8 0.2588 0.3622 0.4432
35% of the season is now completed. Need some homers and a stolen base.

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #162 on:** June 06, 2007, 10:31:52 am »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 58 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R H HR RBI BB SB     BA     OBP     SLG
536   67   145   16   75   78   8   0.2705   0.3744   0.4590
Actual season to date:
192   24   52   6   27   28   3   0.2708   0.3750   0.4635
Last year, 2006:
196   22   54   10   35   26   6   0.2755   0.3656   0.5255

26% of fantasy baseball owners have been starting Church for a month, down from the peak of 41%.
Unless he hits 4 home runs with 8 RBIs, he's behind his 2006 pace for similar ABs.

tomterp · « **Reply #163 on:** June 06, 2007, 10:44:21 am »

He had a fine game last night, an on-base machine.

shoeshineboy · « **Reply #164 on:** June 06, 2007, 11:11:06 am »

Quote from: tomterp on June 06, 2007, 10:44:21 am

He had a fine game last night, an on-base machine.

He should be batting third.

KyleScha · « **Reply #165 on:** June 06, 2007, 11:42:58 am »

Ryan has now has had just about the same PA's as the entire season last year. I think he's done about as well as everyone has expected him too, except I think many people would have thought he'd have a few more homers than he does. However, one thing that really sticks out is he has struck out ALOT less this year than last year. In about 220 PA's last year, he struck out 60 times. This year, he's only struck out 37 times in the same number.

tomterp · « **Reply #166 on:** June 06, 2007, 12:18:38 pm »

Quote from: KyleScha on June 06, 2007, 11:42:58 am

Ryan has now has had just about the same PA's as the entire season last year. I think he's done about as well as everyone has expected him too, except I think many people would have thought he'd have a few more homers than he does. However, one thing that really sticks out is he has struck out ALOT less this year than last year. In about 220 PA's last year, he struck out 60 times. This year, he's only struck out 37 times in the same number.

I agree with your assessment. I expected more homers, but am pleased with is focus on avoiding swinging at balls, which has paid off in a nice # of walks. He needs to continue to do this as well as drive the ball to opposite field (like last night) and the power will come. I was talking to a guy before the game, who observed that if Ryan really concentrated on hitting the outside strikes to left field, then the pitchers would be more balanced in giving him pitches inside that he could take deep. In other words, he isn't getting that many home-run type pitches due to trying to pull the outside pitches too frequently.

But his HR's is about the only thing that is disappointing so far, and I think he'll have a power surge soon that will make up the difference in a hurry, just my hunch.

shoeshineboy · « **Reply #167 on:** June 06, 2007, 01:12:24 pm »

Quote from: KyleScha on June 06, 2007, 11:42:58 am

Ryan has now has had just about the same PA's as the entire season last year. I think he's done about as well as everyone has expected him too, except I think many people would have thought he'd have a few more homers than he does. However, one thing that really sticks out is he has struck out ALOT less this year than last year. In about 220 PA's last year, he struck out 60 times. This year, he's only struck out 37 times in the same number.

The homers come the more that he is given better pitches. His patience with what he has been getting has allowed him to keep his OBP up. But until others around him produce at a much better level, he will continue to see the steady diet of balls and junk pitches. The nice thing to watch is when he expects the pitcher to come with the breaking ball. He sits back on it really nice and connects squarely with it as it gets to him. He had another nice double doing that last night.

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #168 on:** June 07, 2007, 01:34:34 pm »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 59 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R H HR RBI BB SB     BA     OBP     SLG
538   65   142   16   76   76   8   0.2639   0.3654   0.4498
Actual season to date:
196   24   52    6    28    28    3   0.2653   0.3684   0.4541
Last year, 2006:
196   22   54   10    35    26   6   0.2755   0.3656   0.5255
Same ABs as 2006 at this point, and he's statistically behind a bit.

2k6nats · « **Reply #169 on:** June 07, 2007, 03:10:20 pm »

He's only drawn three walks?

tomterp · « **Reply #170 on:** June 07, 2007, 05:44:54 pm »

Quote from: 2k6nats on June 07, 2007, 03:10:20 pm

He's only drawn three walks?

3 stolen bases

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #171 on:** June 08, 2007, 01:22:46 pm »

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 60 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R H HR RBI BB SB     BA     OBP     SLG
537   64   143   16   75   75   8   0.2663   0.3666   0.4562
Actual season to date:
199   24   53   6    28    28    3    0.2663   0.3680   0.4573
Last year, 2006:
196   22   54   10   35   26 6    0.2755   0.3656   0.5255

UMDNats · « **Reply #172 on:** June 08, 2007, 03:42:20 pm »

Ryan Church is not the long-term answer at LF.

2k6nats · « **Reply #173 on:** June 08, 2007, 03:50:17 pm »

Quote from: Nats19 on June 08, 2007, 03:42:20 pm

Ryan Church is not the long-term answer at LF.

Everyone starting position on this team can be improved with ease, except for Zimmerman, Johnson, and Guzman (at his current pace).

shoeshineboy · « **Reply #174 on:** June 08, 2007, 03:53:47 pm »

Quote from: Nats19 on June 08, 2007, 03:42:20 pm

Ryan Church is not the long-term answer at LF.

If that is the case then no one in our outfield is a long-term answer for any of the positions. So we had better be looking to fill up every position with new players. Not that I am against that per se, it just means a radical overhaul sooner than later.