The Matt Williams Effect

[More of #34]

Span is the least of our problems.  Detwiler is a problem.  Losing LaRoche, Zimmerman & Harper - now that's a super-duper problem.     

[Squab]

FP said something interesting last night re: Span. Basically that if you bench someone or move them down in the lineup at this point, it puts in the player's minds that if you don't perform you're going to be moved from your spot, which could lead them to press and end up worse for the team.

I wasn't sure about it being "early" but one night raised Spans average 20 points. That could happen two more times and we'd all be in love with him again.

[Ray D]

5 for 5 nages

It's somewhat embarrassing when going 5 for 5 raises your average to .263 and on base to .308, especially this early in the season.

[Slateman]

It's somewhat embarrassing when going 5 for 5 raises your average to .263 and on base to .308, especially this early in the season.

Hitting the same as Anthony Rendon

[HalfSmokes]

Hitting the same as Anthony Rendon

except for the 80 points of slugging

[TigerFan]

FP said something interesting last night re: Span. Basically that if you bench someone or move them down in the lineup at this point, it puts in the player's minds that if you don't perform you're going to be moved from your spot, which could lead them to press and end up worse for the team.

Wow, that stuck out in my mind as well.  Keeping the players from worrying too much, at least when the team is far from healthy, is a good thing IMO.  Start shuffling people around, and their struggles continue or get worse and then see what the Williams haters have to say.

[sportsfan882]

#Nats lineup vs. #Reds: Span CF, Frandsen3B, Werth RF, Ramos C, Desmond SS, Moore1B, Espinosa2B, McLouth LF, Roark P p

[Slateman]

except for the 80 points of slugging

eh, I was refering tto his OBP.

Don't know if you've noticed, Rendon has been slumping like crazy

[HalfSmokes]

eh, I was refering tto his OBP.

Don't know if you've noticed, Rendon has been slumping like crazy

Even slumping,  he still has a higher average and obp than the lead off hitter

[vicki4471]

Rendon has the day off today.

[Minty Fresh]

McClouth . . . 

We're essentially punting in the 7-8-9 spots - and an argument could be made we're essentially punting after the cleanup hitter.

[Slateman]

Even slumping,  he still has a higher average and obp than the lead off hitter

Marginally

[JCA-CrystalCity]

McClouth . . . 

We're essentially punting in the 7-8-9 spots - and an argument could be made we're essentially punting after the cleanup hitter.

You'll probably be able to point out a line up or two, but what NL team is particularly strong at 7-8-9? 

[vernon337]

Span's slash line for last two weeks is .292/.333/.417

Rendon's slash line for last two weeks: .171/.265/.195

Span last four weeks: .291/.318/.398
Rendon last four weeks: .245/.288/.383

(Desmond last two weeks: .250/.283/.523)

[monkeyhit]

 Souza hitting .350 in Syracuse and they play McOut; Mike Gonzalez with a 0.00 ERA in Syracuse and they play Loss Detwiler.  In the horrible words of Kevin O'Leary, "It's all about the money ALL of the time."

[Slateman]

Souza hitting .350 in Syracuse and they play McOut; Mike Gonzalez with a 0.00 ERA in Syracuse and they play Loss Detwiler.  In the horrible words of Kevin O'Leary, "It's all about the money ALL of the time."

Is it more useful to call a guy up to sit on the bench or to let him play every day? McLouth knows how to be a bench player. Souza does not. And McLouth signed a two year deal. LAC
 
Gonzalez has pitched less than 10 innings and is still showing the control issues that plagued him last season

[welch]

Looks (to me) like Detiler is injured, perhaps the same injury that nagged HRod. Needs a stretch on the DL, in Florida, with Livan doing rehab. Train Detwiler to throw Livan's curve-ball. Of course, if Detwiler can't control his other pitch (es??), then a new curve won't help much.

[dracnal]

I'd rather see Detweiler get an extended stay in AAA, as a starter, and develop another pitch solidly.  It was generally the 5th inning when he was done last year because he'd been through the lineup twice.  Third time through, he got shelled every (mindfact) time. If he can develop his secondary stuff, he'll be able to go deeper consistently and become a commodity instead of a problem.

[Minty Fresh]

You'll probably be able to point out a line up or two, but what NL team is particularly strong at 7-8-9?

You might very well be right, but McClouth and Danny are a vortex of suck at the bottom of the lineup.  We're almost better off playing Jordan Zimmermann at 2B and Strasburg in CF to get more pop from the 7-8 spots.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Souza / McLouth / Hairston decision is not Williams's. It's Rizzo who makes that decision.  Probably what Rizzo was thinking was that with Harper then ALR down, he was going to have to give one younger player, Moore, full-time duty at first and that his preferred solution to left field would be to give the veteran
<------
a first shot at working out while Souza could play full time in AAA and get PAs and more outfield experience. 

We may be getting to the point where you could see Rizzo moving Hairston (not McLouth) off the roster and bring up Souza full time to play left.  McLouth can back up all 3 OF positions and his defense is useful even if his offense isn't (although monday he made nice contact twice).  Hairston can only be hidden in left, not well, and his bat is useful only against lefties.  Frandsen has been maybe closer to adequate than hairston this year, so that covers your back up righty bat.

We've lost a bit of flexibility for call ups when both Kobernus and Perez went on the 60 day DL.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You might very well be right, but McClouth and Danny are a vortex of suck at the bottom of the lineup.  We're almost better off playing Jordan Zimmermann at 2B and Strasburg in CF to get more pop from the 7-8 spots.

Probably closer to the truth is you may want to consider a time share between Espinosa and Frandsen at 2d.  Substitute in Danny for Frandsen when we have a lead after 5 or 6. 

Walters is another potential option, but frankly he's not an OBP machine this year.  3 HR out of his 5 hits, and that's it.  If you are just going for random homers and low OBP, at least Danny gives you decent defense.

[Slateman]

Not bunting Roark . . .

[MorseTheHorse]

Can we talk about how Williams bunted Span from 1st to 2nd last night with 0 outs in the 9th, but he didn't try to bunt Span from 2nd to 3rd with no outs a few nights ago.  A few nights ago we needed 1 run to win, last night 1 run to tie, 2 or more to win.  Makes no sense to me...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Can we talk about how Williams bunted Span from 1st to 2nd last night with 0 outs in the 9th, but he didn't try to bunt Span from 2nd to 3rd with no outs a few nights ago.  A few nights ago we needed 1 run to win, last night 1 run to tie, 2 or more to win.  Makes no sense to me...

It comes down to the probability of scoring a run.  If it is easier to score a fast runner with one out from 2d than it is to score him from first with no outs, then the sacrifice makes sense.  If it is easier to score a fast runner from 2d with no outs than it is from 3d with 1 out, then not sacrificing makes sense.  There's a reason a runner at 2d is called being in scoring position.  Getting 3 shots to get him in from there may (or may not) be easier than getting two shots at getting him in from 3d.  There's actually stat work on this, and you can chase it down if you like.

This approach worked Monday night when Espinosa led off with a double in the 9th. In the 12th, Williams did bunt Span when Moore led off with a walk, and it resulted in Span at 2d with 1 out.  Pretty similar situation to yesterday.  Back to Monday, Williams did not bunt in the 14th after a leadoff double.  His move did not work out due to a great defensive play by Hamilton.  If I were to take anything from Monday and yesterday, I'd say Williams will bunt to move a guy up if he leads off and is on first, but will not if he's already on 2d with no outs.  that seems pretty conventional.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A bit more on Monday's decision to not bunt Frandsen to 3d in the 14th and to send up Lobaton to hit (or "hit," depending on your view of Lobaton).  The hitter due up 3d in the inning was Span.  Span is not a deep fly hitter, generally (OK, leadoff homer yesterday , so let's say not a deep in-play fly hitter).  70% of his contact this year has been ground balls (~50%) or liners (~20%). Runner on 3d, 1 out, defense probably plays the outfield in to where they could throw out a tagging runner.  By bunting, you are diminishing the chance for Span to get a hit on a bloop or a liner in front of the OF, without getting much of a bump on him hitting a ball deep enough to score a run.  The infield also may play in to cut a run at the plate if there is a ground ball.  Infield in increases the likelihood of a ball going through. Pitcher I think would work Span high to make it tougher to hit a grounder or get down a successful squeeze.  I can see how someone smarter than me might not like the odds as much as having Lobaton and Span hit away.  There's also a slightly better chance of Rendon coming up with < 2 outs if you don't give one away bunting (wlaks and infield hits). That's the best way to drive up the odds of scoring the runner.