The Matt Williams Effect

[imref]

In everyones opinion what is the single worst mistake Williams has made so far as manager. Pick just one....his most major screw up thus far.

 leaving Clippard in against Ibanez is the biggest one so far IMHO.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

honestly, at this point, I don't know whether you can tell much about how well this offense is going to do over the year.  To some extent, the Miami and Mets series probably jack up the overall stats, while the run of great pitchers / tough match ups they've faced distorts it down. 

For what it is worth, the team is outscoring Atlanta by a half a run a game (4.26 v. 3.76), and is scoring a higher percentage of baserunners (12% v. 11%).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2014-situational-batting.shtml

The 2014 offense is slightly above MLB average in runs per game (4.26 v. 4.20).   That 12% in scoring baserunners is below MLB average (14% is average), but is the same as St Louis and just below Boston (13%).  Last year, all teams ended up within 1% of average (14%) except St. Louis (17%) and 4 very poor offenses - ChC, MIA, MN, SEA (12%). 

Cashing in is important, and the best offenses at cashing in runners seem to be the higher scoring ones.  none of the teams that were below average in base runner scoring % were above average in runs scored in 2013, while all 8 of the teams that were 15% or higher scored more than MLB average in runs per game.  I would not like to see that 12% continue in 2014, even if our overall run scoring is for now above average.  I expect we will be around 13- 15% by the end of the year, because that is where most teams end up.

[Slateman]

honestly, at this point, I don't know whether you can tell much about how well this offense is going to do over the year.  To some extent, the Miami and Mets series probably jack up the overall stats, while the run of great pitchers / tough match ups they've faced distorts it down. 

For what it is worth, the team is outscoring Atlanta by a half a run a game (4.26 v. 3.76), and is scoring a higher percentage of baserunners (12% v. 11%).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2014-situational-batting.shtml

The 2014 offense is slightly above MLB average in runs per game (4.26 v. 4.20).   That 12% in scoring baserunners is below MLB average (14% is average), but is the same as St Louis and just below Boston (13%).  Last year, all teams ended up within 1% of average (14%) except St. Louis (17%) and 4 very poor offenses - ChC, MIA, MN, SEA (12%). 

Cashing in is important, and the best offenses at cashing in runners seem to be the higher scoring ones.  none of the teams that were below average in base runner scoring % were above average in runs scored in 2013, while all 8 of the teams that were 15% or higher scored more than MLB average in runs per game.  I would not like to see that 12% continue in 2014, even if our overall run scoring is for now above average.  I expect we will be around 13- 15% by the end of the year, because that is where most teams end up.

A lot of that is offset by some blowouts against the Marlins and Mets.

[Ray D]

In everyones opinion what is the single worst mistake Williams has made so far as manager. Pick just one....his most major screw up thus far.

His public rant against Harper.   benching him was fine. He should have ranted in a closed door meeting.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Yep.  Of course it would leak out anyways...

His public rant against Harper.   benching him was fine. He should have ranted in a closed door meeting.

[Ray D]

Yep.  Of course it would leak out anyways...

I think that I would have had plenty of respect for Williams hearing a leaked report that he let his feeling be known in a closed door meeting. I lost some respect  hearing it directly from him.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Yes, exactly.  Ditto with Oates and Halak in that other source of Washington sports angst.

I think that I would have had plenty of respect for Williams hearing a leaked report that he let his feeling be known in a closed door meeting. I lost some respect  hearing it directly from him.

[skippy1999]

I hated him benching Harper.  HATED IT. I know some people were all "oh yea that'll teach him" well it hasn't done a darned thing and I thought it made Williams look like a petty little man, and then the public dressing down afterward was just over the top nonsense. 

[vicki4471]

I hated him benching Harper.  HATED IT. I know some people were all "oh yea that'll teach him" well it hasn't done a darned thing and I thought it made Williams look like a petty little man, and then the public dressing down afterward was just over the top nonsense.

Completely agree.    Oh and for the record, I forget who it was, I'm thinking Lobaton maybe... but last night someone was clearly out running to second and completely stopped before reaching second base. Is lack of hustle acceptable in people not named Harper? I mean no one said a word about it, it was just something I noticed.. Like I said, dont remember who it was just know for sure I remembered seeing someone not run the play completely out.

[Dschmiel]

Not that it isn't true, but I think it's a misguided way of thinking. First of all no team should be banking on having a healthy lineup, it's a pitiful excuse. Second of all, if we're banking on Ramos and Zimmerman being completely healthy the whole season that's just poor planning.

42 HR/140 RBI combined in '13
48 HR/135 RBI combined in '13

The first line: Justin Upton and Evan Gattis
The second line: Wilson Ramos and Ryan Zimmerman

Take away JUp and Gattis from the Braves right now and they are probably around a .500 team. 

[HalfSmokes]

42 HR/140 RBI combined in '13
48 HR/135 RBI combined in '13

The first line: Justin Upton and Evan Gattis
The second line: Wilson Ramos and Ryan Zimmerman

Take away JUp and Gattis from the Braves right now and they are probably around a .500 team. 

113
25
78
1

Ramos' games played 2011-2014 - counting on him to play full time is at best wishful thinking

[mitlen]

42 HR/140 RBI combined in '13
48 HR/135 RBI combined in '13

The first line: Justin Upton and Evan Gattis
The second line: Wilson Ramos and Ryan Zimmerman

Take away JUp and Gattis from the Braves right now and they are probably around a .500 team. 

Take away Strasburg and Zimmerman (Beachy and Medlen) from the Nats and we're still behind the Barves even without Gattis and Upton.    Add Werth, LaRoche, Espi, Harper, Rendon to the Barves and they're undefeated.   If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Chirstmas.

[Ray D]

I hated him benching Harper.  HATED IT. I know some people were all "oh yea that'll teach him" well it hasn't done a darned thing and I thought it made Williams look like a petty little man, and then the public dressing down afterward was just over the top nonsense. 

Well we don't really know, but I don't think you can disconnect the benching from the dressing down.  The two combined didn't achieve the desired results, but if it had been just a benching (with a closed door meeting) the results may have been different.

[spidernat]

Take away Strasburg and Zimmerman (Beachy and Medlen) from the Nats and we're still behind the Barves even without Gattis and Upton.    Add Werth, LaRoche, Espi, Harper, Rendon to the Barves and they're undefeated.   If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Chirstmas.

  The standings only reflect reality not bullcrap scenarios.

[imref]

Matt Williams just crushed a homer over the 'natitude' sign in LF at #Nats Park. #stillgotit

[Slateman]

Good. Maybe we can activate him to hit leadoff.

[Smithian]

  The standings only reflect reality not bullcrap scenarios.

                        W    L  PCT   GB

Washington      18  14 .563  -
 
Atlanta             17 14 .548  0.5

Miami               17 15 .531  1.0

NY Mets            16 15 .516  1.5
 
Philadelphia      15 15 .500  2.0

 

[mitlen]

                        W    L  PCT   GB

Washington      18  14 .563  -
 
Atlanta             17 14 .548  0.5

Miami               17 15 .531  1.0

NY Mets            16 15 .516  1.5
 
Philadelphia      15 15 .500  2.0

 

Been waitin' a long time to post this, eh?     

[stealyerbase]

Been waitin' a long time to post this, eh?     

Looks good! When I get tomorrow's paper with the updated statistics out here in the country I'll probably spread out the sports page on the floor open to the standings and roll around on it for awhile. I am an enthusiastic fanatic!

[tomterp]

Been waitin' a long time to post this, eh?     

Long memories, one of the things that make WNFF great.   

[skippy1999]

Long memories, one of the things that make WNFF great.   

So true lol!
Oh but since I'm quick to bash him I'll be the first to say I thought Williams did a perfect job with the pitchers last night, from what I recall anyway 

[tomterp]

Anything (stupid) you say can, should, and will be used against you in the court of WNFF opinion.

[spidernat]

Been waitin' a long time to post this, eh?     

But what I said was completely true. It's unbelievable that some people think some of us really want the Nats to fail. I guess too much of anything can impair judgment.

[sportsfan882]

Adam Kilgore ‏@AdamKilgoreWP  2m
Ross Detwiler, a pretty decent left-handed starter, ranks 95th out of 98 relievers in average leverage index. http://wapo.st/RoIntz

[mitlen]

But what I said was completely true. It's unbelievable that some people think some of us really want the Nats to fail. I guess too much of anything can impair judgment.

I hear ya.    Some folks think any personal opinions that question the goings on are LOD'ers or want the Nats to fail.    There may be a few of those people runnin' around but for the most part, this is Natsylvania.        My comment was tongue in cheek  ...   My intent was to imply that some have been waiting over a year to pull out a standing that shows the Nats in first (not Smithian particularly).    Don't remember seeing the standings posted last year.