The Bryce Harper Compendium (2014)

[GburgNatsFan]

When Werth came home tonight, I watched three times before I saw Harper in the scrum. I'm glad he was in it. I'm unsettled that I was looking.

[spidernat]

He gave Werth a chest bump.

[welch]

When Werth came home tonight, I watched three times before I saw Harper in the scrum. I'm glad he was in it. I'm unsettled that I was looking.

I did the same.

[zimm_da_kid]

I agree. We were expecting Ken Griffey or ARod. But he isn't of the same mindset.

the WAR don't lie

[madj55]

When Werth came home tonight, I watched three times before I saw Harper in the scrum. I'm glad he was in it. I'm unsettled that I was looking.

I've never thought of Harper as not a team guy, he always seems to be in the scrum after a walk-off.

[nobleisthyname]

He's not a bust. But he's not what we were hoping for.

He's a poor man's Josh Hamilton.

Harper's problem is that he's young and immature. He cannot focus and center himself. His emotions drive him. So when he's hot, he's on fire. But when he's slumping, his frustration takes over and owns him.

Describing him as a poor man's Josh Hamilton might be accurate right now but if you think he's done developing then you're crazy. He's at an age where most players are still in the low minors. He was great in 2012 and even better in 2013. He's stunk it up so far this season but we're not even done with April yet. If seasons were decided by now Justin Upton would have been Babe Ruth last year.

[Mr Clean]

I think it's officially time to start using the bust word.

I see now.

[Slateman]

Describing him as a poor man's Josh Hamilton might be accurate right now but if you think he's done developing then you're crazy. He's at an age where most players are still in the low minors. He was great in 2012 and even better in 2013. He's stunk it up so far this season but we're not even done with April yet. If seasons were decided by now Justin Upton would have been Babe Ruth last year.

He's done. It isn't about his ability anymore. It's about his head. And he doesn't not have the mental fortitude to calm himself when he's frustrated. He will be a player of hot and cold streaks.

[Ray D]

Harper's problem is that he isn't living up to his own expectations and he can't deal with that.   Prior to last season he was asked what his expectations were for 2012 and he said "I can't tell you because if I did you would think I'm crazy".  I'm guessing he thought he would hit 50 homeruns.  And the way he started 2012, so did we all. He was able to deal last year with underachieving because he had the injury to use as rationalization.   He doesn't have that crutch this season.  He's not a 50 homerun guy (yet) and he can't deal with that.

[Mr Clean]

I think it's officially time to start using the bust word.

Reads like something McPoop would post.

[NJ Ave]

He's at an age where most players are still in the low minors.

This is true.

These things are also true:

1. He is not in the low minors, and hasn't been in the low minors for some time.
2. Due to injury, mental issues, whatever - he has not shown the rate of improvement most people expected. He improved by about 3/4 of a win in terms of his batting last year if he had played the same amount as in 2012.
3. Things like defense and baserunning have already peaked for him, or will likely peak in the next year or two.

Look, if Bryce doesn't improve from being a +25 run hitter (think Evan Longoria), and settles in as an exciting but neutral baserunner and defender (I think likely) he's still a 4-win player. That's great. I think he'll be able to maintain that level of performance, in slumps and starts, just based on his pure talent.

But I also think it's fair to start wondering when these big jumps of on-field batting production are going to take place. If a player is going to become a PLAYER, you normally see the jumps early on - Trout, Stanton, etc.

There are plenty of guys like Hosmer who were "can't miss" hitting talents (.293/.334/.465 in his first season at 21 - sound familiar) who never make those huge leaps. That happens, too.

I don't know, I still think it's going to happen.

[mdnatsfan]

There are plenty of guys like Hosmer who were "can't miss" hitting talents (.293/.334/.465 in his first season at 21 - sound familiar) who never make those huge leaps. That happens, too.

I don't know, I still think it's going to happen.

I hope you are right, but I'm beginning to think "Helicopter Parent"=ruined man. Think Eric Lindros, Donovan McNabb. Harper comes off more and more like a spoiled upper middle class brat whose daddy and mommy told him how wonderful he was, lobbied Sports Illustrated to get him on the cover (I have no proof of this, but I bet...), "plotted" an abnormal course to get him into the pro's (GED, junior college), and now he can't handle hanging with real adults. Harper, I HATE to admit it, is a brat.

I look a Trout and he is one cool customer. And let's forget the fact that Trout is head and shoulders better than Harper, he is just more mature and more independent.

Harper is living proof for all parents that you don't raise the child you have, you raise the adult they are going to be! That's why I'm hard and getting much harder on my kids. My youngest is in gymnastics, and when he dogs it or just outright sucks, I actually have the audacity to tell him: "Get better, get your head into it, or go home and stop wasting my money."

[HalfSmokes]

since when are iron workers upper middle class- I know definitions shift so that everyone can be middle class, but that seems like a stretch

[Slateman]

since when are iron workers upper middle class- I know definitions shift so that everyone can be middle class, but that seems like a stretch

Since unions

[HalfSmokes]

Since unions

to me upper middle class means engineer, doctor, lawyer

[Slateman]

to me upper middle class means engineer, doctor, lawyer

Unions. There are toll both collectors in PA that  are earning six figures.

[NJ Ave]

I think Boswell is pretty tied in, and said as much recently - the team backed Matt Williams benching Harper because they're tired of waiting for Bryce to grow up and stop letting his slumps affect the team.

You know, I hate to say this, but there is a spoiled little left-handed kid who came up young and scuttled a bit - still good but not playing up to his potential - who finally had something click in his 5th season at age 25.

Barry Bonds.

[Slateman]

I think Boswell is pretty tied in, and said as much recently - the team backed Matt Williams benching Harper because they're tired of waiting for Bryce to grow up and stop letting his slumps affect the team.

You know, I hate to say this, but there is a spoiled little left-handed kid who came up young and scuttled a bit - still good but not playing up to his potential - who finally had something click in his 5th season at age 25.

Barry Bonds.

Which is right about the time he started taking PEDs

[sph274]

you guys are crazy, the kid is 21 and april isnt even over yet. he has like two good games and his stats jump considerably. to call a player who has amassed 8.7 WAR before he is 21 a bust is freaking insane.

[Slateman]

you guys are crazy, the kid is 21 and april isnt even over yet. he has like two good games and his stats jump considerably. to call a player who has amassed 8.7 WAR before he is 21 a bust is freaking insane.

He's a bust compared to what was expected. He isn't a bust in terms of overall performance. He's more in line with the kind of bust JD Drew or Carl Everett were. Good, but not as good as expected.

[NJ Ave]

you guys are crazy, the kid is 21 and april isnt even over yet. he has like two good games and his stats jump considerably. to call a player who has amassed 8.7 WAR before he is 21 a bust is freaking insane.

He was 1/2 with Mike Trout, with a major debate over who was going to be better. Mike Trout is putting up 10 WAR seasons, Bryce is trying to break through the 4 WAR barrier.

A 4-WAR player is great, I'm not saying he's a bust even if he never improves. I'm also saying I think he WILL improve.

What I'm saying is that he's not a rookie anymore, this is his third season, and at some point if you're GOING to improve, you actually have to go out and DO IT.

[HalfSmokes]

you guys are crazy, the kid is 21 and april isnt even over yet. he has like two good games and his stats jump considerably. to call a player who has amassed 8.7 WAR before he is 21 a bust is freaking insane.

why does age matter? The nats have harper through 2018- I could care less what he produces in his age 28 season. Right now he's had seasons of 4.5 and 3.8 which is great, but it's not exactly living up to the predraft best prospect ever expectations

[NJ Ave]

Further, there's not much time left for excuses. He's no longer younger than most other phenoms who make it to the majors, and he has the added benefit of being here longer and having more knowledge of the pitchers he faces.

Mike Stanton's first three seasons by OPS (20/21/22): .833/.893/.969
Mike Trout (19/20/21): .672/.963/.988
Miguel Cabrera (20/21/22): .793/.897/.947

Bryce Harper (19/20/21): .817/.854/.694

He's not a kid anymore, guys. He's a 21-year old in his third season, and in their 2nd or 3rd seasons at the same age some of the other most talented young hitters in baseball were OPSing near .900 or well above that.

[NationalHeat]

Which is right about the time he started taking PEDs

Where is the proof of that? Game of Shadows was pretty explicit that he started roiding in 1999-2001 range.

[nobleisthyname]

He's done. It isn't about his ability anymore. It's about his head. And he doesn't not have the mental fortitude to calm himself when he's frustrated. He will be a player of hot and cold streaks.

This is what I don't get. You're basing this off of three weeks of baseball. You're not basing it off of 2012 and 2013 since then everyone was still extremely hyped (and deservedly so) about him. So you're taking a player who was on pace to be an inner circle hall of famer (based on what he's done and what improvements are generally expected from players his age) and calling him a poor man's Josh Hamilton based on three weeks of baseball.

Once again, how is this any different than any other player who has an extremely poor or great month? Jayson Werth had a terrible YEAR in 2011 and yet is now considered our best hitter.

This is true.

These things are also true:

1. He is not in the low minors, and hasn't been in the low minors for some time.
2. Due to injury, mental issues, whatever - he has not shown the rate of improvement most people expected. He improved by about 3/4 of a win in terms of his batting last year if he had played the same amount as in 2012.
3. Things like defense and baserunning have already peaked for him, or will likely peak in the next year or two.

Look, if Bryce doesn't improve from being a +25 run hitter (think Evan Longoria), and settles in as an exciting but neutral baserunner and defender (I think likely) he's still a 4-win player. That's great. I think he'll be able to maintain that level of performance, in slumps and starts, just based on his pure talent.

But I also think it's fair to start wondering when these big jumps of on-field batting production are going to take place. If a player is going to become a PLAYER, you normally see the jumps early on - Trout, Stanton, etc.

There are plenty of guys like Hosmer who were "can't miss" hitting talents (.293/.334/.465 in his first season at 21 - sound familiar) who never make those huge leaps. That happens, too.

I don't know, I still think it's going to happen.

Then these people were delusional. This is the company of players Harper is with going into this season: Mel Ott, Mike Trout, Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, Alex Rodriguez, Mickey Mantle. That is the list of players (plus Harper) who have amassed at least 8 WAR going into their age 21 seasons. People expected him to be better than this?

Sure his development could stall like Hosmer (whose best offensive season is worse than any of Harper's btw) but let's at least give him a couple of months this season before throwing out everything else we've seen from him and start calling him done.