Runner on second no outs scores more runs than a runner at third and one out.
Fact.
Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002
Actual Runs Scored, following each base/out state to end of inning
By Tangotiger
The following table presents the average number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002.
RE 99-02 0 1 2 (# outs)
Empty 0.555 0.297 0.117
1st 0.953 0.573 0.251
2nd 1.189 0.725 0.344
3rd 1.482 0.983 0.387
1st_2nd. 1.573 0.971 0.466
1st_3rd 1.904 1.243 0.538
2nd_3rd 2.052 1.467 0.634
Loaded 2.417 1.65 0.815