Question about Harper making the team.

[imref]

From the article:
To be fair, if I had spent my entire life as a fan of a franchise that consistently and absurdly overhyped their own prospects to almost god-like proportions (although the NYC media is mostly at fault here), I'd be a little skeptical of prospect hype too. As for his over-reliance on minor league statistics to measure a player's potential (let alone a single season worth of stats)... I don't know what to tell you. He probably saw Moneyball and discovered his first issue of Baseball America on the same day.

how many people have done what Harper has done at every level he's done it?

unbelievable.  This is like saying Gretzky was all hype when he was out-playing kids 7 years older than him.

[HalfSmokes]

Considering what he's actually done- I'd presume quite a few

[imref]

Considering what he's actually done- I'd presume quite a few

.333 / .400 / .634 at age 18 in the most advanced minor league program there is?  I don't think all that many people have accomplished in their career what Harper has accomplished so far.

[BrandonK]

You might be right and if he lives up to the hype and becomes a free agent at age 25, can you imagine? Yikes. It would be AROD all over again.

But……….

That being said, I still think it's very possible that the Nats could offer him a 5 year extension at  100 - 125 mil and he might bite.

Think about it.....

He'd still be a free agent when he's 30 and put him in position to do what Pujols did this offseason. (Lock in huge numbers at an old age because he's still great at 30 so teams are willing to bite the bullet). If you remember, Pujols signed a big extension that made him a free agent at 30 too – it makes sense.
If he hits the market at 25, the most he'd likely get is a 10 year deal, leaving his second deal coming at age 35 (much less attractive).  Plus he gets all the security that 125 mil brings and still becomes one the the highest paid players in baseball at 22.

If he took the extension and became a free agent at 30, we might have a world series or two and he may not want to leave.  Even if he does, we had him for 11 years, can't complain too much about that.

This is probably the best argument to date. If he lives up to his potential, he could be guaranteed much more with this type of deal (a 5-yr at 25, 9-10 at 30). He could even be the first to garner a contract over 10 years... 

[NatsTheFats]

From the article:
To be fair, if I had spent my entire life as a fan of a franchise that consistently and absurdly overhyped their own prospects to almost god-like proportions (although the NYC media is mostly at fault here), I'd be a little skeptical of prospect hype too. As for his over-reliance on minor league statistics to measure a player's potential (let alone a single season worth of stats)... I don't know what to tell you. He probably saw Moneyball and discovered his first issue of Baseball America on the same day.

This is just another Yankees fan being skeptical of another Yankees prospect. 

Once the Nats develop him into a superstar (see A-Rod to the Rangers) and he finally comes into his prime, he can bolt for the pinstripes. 

I recommend stashing him in AAA until he's 23-24.  After his body matures a bit more, Rizzo can move him up and get the most productive years out of him. 

[loshjott]

Anyone read this piece of work on Bryce from Yahoo? Wow. Just wow.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ycn-11065826

Yahoo is degrading itself by publishing "fan" articles like this one.

Any time you devote four paragraphs explaining why Bryce Harper failing to as many runs as Brett Gardner in the minors is somehow a poor reflection on Harper you know the fan has no knowledge of baseball whatsoever.

[HalfSmokes]

.333 / .400 / .634 at age 18 in the most advanced minor league program there is?  I don't think all that many people have accomplished in their career what Harper has accomplished so far.

but .256 .329 .395 at AA, even in the AFL this year, 6 other players put up number numbers as good as or better than him. As far as his age goes, so what, he's going to have to play against adults so what he accomplishes at 18 vs what another player does at 23 shouldn't matter

[LostYudite]

This is worse than anything I've said in this thread.  For the record: if Harper starts with the team, it works out perfectly, and ultimately he signs an extension...Rizzo is a maroon.  Beautiful.

Yes, exactly. Because what makes Rizzo a moron or not (or makes any front office effective or not) isn't whether it works out perfectly - it's what the upside and downside risks were.  If I invest my $50,000 life savings in Powerball and I win $300 million, that doesn't make me a genius.

And to me, that's why the idea of bringing him up on Opening Day is just a non-starter.  I get the fan instinct and where MorsetheHorse and others are coming from - "I'm sick and tired of the losing, Bryce is a STUUUUD, if he helps us win three games in April, those might be the three we need to make the playoffs, etc."  I feel that too, and can't wait to see him as our starting RF.

But, any realistic projection of what he's going to do (and there's been lots of really good ones) as an age-19 player is that he'll be a good, complementary piece - not a team-carrying MVP.  Useful, helpful, contributing to getting the team wins, but not yet ready to be the centerpiece that everybody thinks he will be later on.  At best, in April, he's giving us maybe 1 WAR - so that's maybe one game we might win in April that we wouldn't win with Ankiel/Shark in CF.

Also, while I think Hondo's got an interesting argument on whether or not he'd take an extension five years out - that's a major question mark and most of the evidence so far says that he wants to be the game's biggest player on the game's biggest stage - so planning that you're going to be able to extend him to me seems like a bad bet.  So I think good planning requires thinking that he's going to do six ML years and then go.

So at the end of the day, you're left with that same trade-off - buy an extra year of Harper for the cost of three weeks of games when he's 19.  If Rizzo chooses the three weeks, and we go to the playoffs, and he resigns an extension, he's still an idiot for taking what I think would be a huge and unnecessary risk, even if he didn't have to suffer the consequences of that risk working out.

[Lintyfresh85]

Yes, exactly. Because what makes Rizzo a moron or not (or makes any front office effective or not) isn't whether it works out perfectly - it's what the upside and downside risks were.  If I invest my $50,000 life savings in Powerball and I win $300 million, that doesn't make me a genius.

And to me, that's why the idea of bringing him up on Opening Day is just a non-starter.  I get the fan instinct and where MorsetheHorse and others are coming from - "I'm sick and tired of the losing, Bryce is a STUUUUD, if he helps us win three games in April, those might be the three we need to make the playoffs, etc."  I feel that too, and can't wait to see him as our starting RF.

But, any realistic projection of what he's going to do (and there's been lots of really good ones) as an age-19 player is that he'll be a good, complementary piece - not a team-carrying MVP.  Useful, helpful, contributing to getting the team wins, but not yet ready to be the centerpiece that everybody thinks he will be later on.  At best, in April, he's giving us maybe 1 WAR - so that's maybe one game we might win in April that we wouldn't win with Ankiel/Shark in CF.

Also, while I think Hondo's got an interesting argument on whether or not he'd take an extension five years out - that's a major question mark and most of the evidence so far says that he wants to be the game's biggest player on the game's biggest stage - so planning that you're going to be able to extend him to me seems like a bad bet.  So I think good planning requires thinking that he's going to do six ML years and then go.

So at the end of the day, you're left with that same trade-off - buy an extra year of Harper for the cost of three weeks of games when he's 19.  If Rizzo chooses the three weeks, and we go to the playoffs, and he resigns an extension, he's still an idiot for taking what I think would be a huge and unnecessary risk, even if he didn't have to suffer the consequences of that risk working out.

+1

"Sanity"

[The Chief]

Yes, exactly. Because what makes Rizzo a moron or not (or makes any front office effective or not) isn't whether it works out perfectly - it's what the upside and downside risks were.  If I invest my $50,000 life savings in Powerball and I win $300 million, that doesn't make me a genius.

*snip*

I rarely say this, but in this case it's warranted:

/thread

[Ray D]

I get the fan instinct and where MorsetheHorse and others are coming from - "I'm sick and tired of the losing, Bryce is a STUUUUD, if he helps us win three games in April, those might be the three we need to make the playoffs, etc." 

But the flaw in that thinking is this. Some one asked recently (paraphrasing) "what has Harper done to prove that we would win more games right now with him than with, say Ankiel, who probably would be cut or sent down to make room for Harper". And of course, nobody answered that question. 

[PebbleBall]

I rarely say this, but in this case it's warranted:

/thread

I have one basic premise: that the people making this decision are more in tune with the issues involved than the people in this thread, and that should be considered.

[The Chief]

I have one basic premise: that the people making this decision are more in tune with the issues involved than the people in this thread, and that should be considered.

Sure, but that door swings both ways, and there will rarely be a clearer-cut case of what to do, so the fact that fans are on the outside looking in is a very marginal factor here.

[PebbleBall]

Also, while I think Hondo's got an interesting argument on whether or not he'd take an extension five years out - that's a major question mark and most of the evidence so far says that he wants to be the game's biggest player on the game's biggest stage - so planning that you're going to be able to extend him to me seems like a bad bet.  So I think good planning requires thinking that he's going to do six ML years and then go.

Is it merely possible that the Nationals might have some idea about the answer to the question (again assuming that his play this Spring justifies this entire debate)?  That's all I'm saying.  Is it possible that they could have a discussion with Bryce about wanting to have him up and the obvious business factors in the way?  Is it possible that the relationship between Harper and the team is also an issue?

[Lintyfresh85]

Is it merely possible that the Nationals might have some idea about the answer to the question (again assuming that his play this Spring justifies this entire debate)?  That's all I'm saying.  Is it possible that they could have a discussion with Bryce about wanting to have him up and the obvious business factors in the way?  Is it possible that the relationship between Harper and the team is also an issue?

Who cares about their relationship? Either way he's going to play hard for the Nats. Either to earn an extension from the team, or to break the bank in FA. Having said that... anyone banking on an extension is likely going to be very disappointed in 5-6 years. It's great to have hope, but regardless how this situation is handled, I'm positive it won't have any bearing whatsoever in a potential extension down the line.

[PebbleBall]

Sure, but that door swings both ways, and there will rarely be a clearer-cut case of what to do, so the fact that fans are on the outside looking in is a very marginal factor here.

It could be a huge factor.  When a team and a player both want the same thing, solutions can be reached.  Believe me, if I was betting on it I'd have him starting in the minors.  But I'm not willing to buy that the team is automatically stupid and Rizzo is automatically crazy if it were to happen. 

[HalfSmokes]

It could be a huge factor.  When a team and a player both want the same thing, solutions can be reached. 

like with the brewers and Prince or the Cardinals and Pujols?

[The Chief]

It could be a huge factor.  When a team and a player both want the same thing, solutions can be reached.  Believe me, if I was betting on it I'd have him starting in the minors.  But I'm not willing to buy that the team is automatically stupid and Rizzo is automatically crazy if it were to happen. 

So when he starts the season in the minors and isn't called up until the appropriate time to ensure an extra year of control, will you likewise admit that this was a very silly fantasy?  I mean, I get where you're coming from, but as you said the betting money's on the obvious outcome.

"/thread" wasn't a dig at your position so much as an observation that both sides of this argument have been clearly and intelligently stated, and we're just chasing our tails now.

[Lintyfresh85]

And as I've said many times.. please... anyone, tell me what Harper has done on the field to show he's ready.

It's a point that is constantly ignored.

[PebbleBall]

And as I've said many times.. please... anyone, tell me what Harper has done on the field to show he's ready.

It's a point that is constantly ignored.

I'm with you there, I think the entire argument is way premature.  But I am rooting for him to do it. 

[LostYudite]

Is it merely possible that the Nationals might have some idea about the answer to the question (again assuming that his play this Spring justifies this entire debate)?  That's all I'm saying.  Is it possible that they could have a discussion with Bryce about wanting to have him up and the obvious business factors in the way?  Is it possible that the relationship between Harper and the team is also an issue?

Could the actual front-office of a baseball team know more about the inner workings of its players than some anonymous dude on a fan message board?  Absolutely not! 

Of course they might - but even if Bryce right now took out a full-size billboard today that says "I WILL SIGN AN EXTENSION WITH THE NATS IF I MAKE THE CLUB OUT OF SPRING TRAINING," I think Rizzo would be a fool to believe him.  The kid's 19 - he has no more idea where he wants to be when he's 25 than any of us did as sophomores in college. 

Any decision that stems from the assumption that he's going to sign an extension, regardless of the information that Rizzo does or doesn't have is a fundamentally incredibly risky assumption.  Trading a full year of team control on the basis of interpretation of feelings surrounding the mind of a 19 year old is plain foolishness.  I'm not saying it's impossible that he might ultimately decide he just loves DC and wants to stay - I'm just saying you don't give away a year of control on the hope that he falls in love.

[HalfSmokes]

Could the actual front-office of a baseball team know more about the inner workings of its players than some anonymous dude on a fan message board?  Absolutely not! 

Of course they might - but even if Bryce right now took out a full-size billboard today that says "I WILL SIGN AN EXTENSION WITH THE NATS IF I MAKE THE CLUB OUT OF SPRING TRAINING," I think Rizzo would be a fool to believe him.  The kid's 19 - he has no more idea where he wants to be when he's 25 than any of us did as sophomores in college. 

Any decision that stems from the assumption that he's going to sign an extension, regardless of the information that Rizzo does or doesn't have is a fundamentally incredibly risky assumption.  Trading a full year of team control on the basis of interpretation of feelings surrounding the mind of a 19 year old is plain foolishness.  I'm not saying it's impossible that he might ultimately decide he just loves DC and wants to stay - I'm just saying you don't give away a year of control on the hope that he falls in love.

unless they actually sign him to one, i.e longoria before they let him come up

[LostYudite]

"/thread" wasn't a dig at your position so much as an observation that both sides of this argument have been clearly and intelligently stated, and we're just chasing our tails now.

What?!  WHAAAAAT?!

Do I have to take down the thing on my wall that says "The dinosaur in the trash can thinks i pwn" now?   

By the way, Linty, I totally agree - he's not really proven himself at AA and above yet - I don't think he'll need long, but he does need time, so this is all sort of academic.

[PebbleBall]

So when he starts the season in the minors and isn't called up until the appropriate time to ensure an extra year of control, will you likewise admit that this was a very silly fantasy?  I mean, I get where you're coming from, but as you said the betting money's on the obvious outcome.

"/thread" wasn't a dig at your position so much as an observation that both sides of this argument have been clearly and intelligently stated, and we're just chasing our tails now.

I'd admit that they did the rational thing like I admit right now it's the most likely outcome.  But I wouldn't call it a fantasy so much. They say they're giving him a chance and the roadblock to that is so big and obvious that it's worth discussing what factors might allow them to give him a sincere shot, and I won't just completely dismiss that there could be good reasons for doing it. 

[comish4lif]

Yahoo is degrading itself by publishing "fan" articles like this one.

Any time you devote four paragraphs explaining why Bryce Harper failing to as many runs as Brett Gardner in the minors is somehow a poor reflection on Harper you know the fan has no knowledge of baseball whatsoever.

When I first saw that I wasn't going to comment since I didn't feel like beating up on a teenaged kid, but then I saw the comment about watching the Yanks in the '70s and realized he's at least late 30s, and then I deemed his baseball "knowledge" kind of sad.

I agree, this denigrates Yahoo! which by breaking some stories in the past year is trying to be a serious media organization, and then they drop garbage like that on their site.