WP: Nats MASN deal renegotations will have a huge impact

[HalfSmokes]

If MLB did try to dissolve the MASN deal I'm sure the Orioles/MASN would sue. It was a bad contract from the start but there's no easy way out.

It would be hilarious if the MLB gave equal payments and then the Os insisted that MASN owned the Nats rights and just had to pay them fair value subject to 5 year renegotiation periods

[nfotiu]

There is no chance the Dodgers, Yankees or Red Sox would ever agree to equal TV rights

They already give half their TV money to revenue sharing, so there is room to negotiate.   YES and NESN are losing subscribers at the same rate as everyone else.   I don't know how long the Spectrum LA can keep losing hundreds of millions per year, especially since the Dodgers own half of it.  27 teams can over-ride 3 and those 3 teams need to figure out a TV model that makes sense 2-3 years from now when the cable bundle is dead.

[nfotiu]

If MLB did try to dissolve the MASN deal I'm sure the Orioles/MASN would sue. It was a bad contract from the start but there's no easy way out.

MASN as it exists, is going to be about worthless in 5 years, or sooner.   It's in the best interest of all teams to buy into a different model that has the potential to grow both in exposure and revenue.

[Natsinpwc]

MASN as it exists, is going to be about worthless in 5 years, or sooner.   It's in the best interest of all teams to buy into a different model that has the potential to grow both in exposure and revenue.

Logic would tell you that but the owners egos will get in the way. Best hope is new ownership for each team.

[HalfSmokes]

MASN as it exists, is going to be about worthless in 5 years, or sooner.   It's in the best interest of all teams to buy into a different model that has the potential to grow both in exposure and revenue.

MASN owns the national's TV rights. That is not going to be worthless. They have a very good argument that they should get any payment to the team for TV rights. I wouldn't be shocked if other RSNs were set up the same way absent the two team part.

[HalfSmokes]

They already give half their TV money to revenue sharing, so there is room to negotiate.   YES and NESN are losing subscribers at the same rate as everyone else.   I don't know how long the Spectrum LA can keep losing hundreds of millions per year, especially since the Dodgers own half of it.  27 teams can over-ride 3 and those 3 teams need to figure out a TV model that makes sense 2-3 years from now when the cable bundle is dead.

Right now there are a bunch of haves and a bunch of have nots. The have nots are far worse off, but the haves are in the same position now that they were last year. I think a lot of them will think that riding it out until the end is in their best interest

[nfotiu]

MASN owns the national's TV rights. That is not going to be worthless. They have a very good argument that they should get any payment to the team for TV rights. I wouldn't be shocked if other RSNs were set up the same way absent the two team part.

How much are the Nats TV rights worth in a post bundle model?   They had 56,000 household viewers in 2019 average.   Even if they make it more accessible and have a good team, they aren't getting much more than 100,000 viewers.   That's probably worth 10-20 million in ad revenue minus production costs, so maybe 5-10 million per year with no one taking a cut.   MASN was getting in the neighborhood of 200 million year in carriage fee revenue at their peak.  So the Nats rights aren't worthless, but fairly insignificant.   

[HalfSmokes]

How much are the Nats TV rights worth in a post bundle model?   They had 56,000 household viewers in 2019 average.   Even if they make it more accessible and have a good team, they aren't getting much more than 100,000 viewers.   That's probably worth 10-20 million in ad revenue minus production costs, so maybe 5-10 million per year with no one taking a cut.   MASN was getting in the neighborhood of 200 million year in carriage fee revenue at their peak.  So the Nats rights aren't worthless, but fairly insignificant.   

They're worth whatever the MLB, or whoever else, ends up paying for them. I'd assume that it will eventually be for a jury to decide. Unless the plan is for MLB to just not air games, they will have to buy out rights holders

[Senatorswin]

In Chelsea Janes article in the Post today she mentions in November a MLB appointed committee ruled the Orioles owe the Nationals an average of $60 million in rights fees annually for the period from 2017 to 2021. WHAAAAT!!! This is the first I've heard this and since I recently posted about the MASN situation on here and nobody mentioned that, I assume nobody else knew it either.

So if MLB is going to assign the money value for the Nats TV rights and there's no dispute like there was about the first 5 years, I don't see why the MASN uncertainty would affect the sale of the team. Sure you might not know what the award will be in the future, but most teams in the MLB have uncertainty in what they're going to be paid for their local TV going forward.

[Natsinpwc]

I’m not totally up to speed but I believe the Orioles are legally challenging those figures and there is still uncertainty on the outcome. And lots of legal fees to pay.

[Senatorswin]

I’m not totally up to speed but I believe the Orioles are legally challenging those figures and there is still uncertainty on the outcome. And lots of legal fees to pay.

They may be but the article didn't indicate that and besides the courts have already made their ruling that the committee that decided the money for those years has the authority to do so. It wouldn't make sense for the Orioles to fight the same fight they already lost and I assume the courts wouldn't entertain something they've already ruled on.

Still, I think this MASN situation has showed us nothing is too absurd so you might be right.

[Senatorswin]

Since I haven't been able to find any other sources that said the MASN years 2017-2021 have been settled for $60 million a year, I asked Chelsea Janes. She was very nice and got back to me right away.

She said since the Post was the first to report it there are no other links. She said she got her information from court records and from speaking to sources.

[Natsinpwc]

So if they’ve gotten the money why so cheap Lerners?

[Senatorswin]

So if they’ve gotten the money why so cheap Lerners?

Yep, and to me with all the uncertainty with a lot of the teams local TV rights, the Nats situation is not that much different. They should be able to get some idea of what to expect in future years.

I can see why Leonsis wouldn't want to buy the Nats as long as the MASN deal is in place though because a major reason for him buying them would be to fill up his sports network channel.

[Slateman]

So if they’ve gotten the money why so cheap Lerners?

Cus the Lerners want to sell

[welch]

I no longer want Leonsis to buy the Nats. Let the Lerners sell to someone respectable.

[Natsinpwc]

Cus the Lerners want to sell

Bingo. Correct answer.

[Mattionals]

I no longer want Leonsis to buy the Nats. Let the Lerners sell to someone respectable.

There is no such thing as a respectable billionaire. Sell to whomever.

[Senatorswin]

There is no such thing as a respectable billionaire. Sell to whomever.

People used to think Kraft was the best ever until he got caught in Jupiter with his pants down. If I had to vote for the best owner I would say the Rooneys.

Bob Short as the worst ever.

[machpost]

There is no such thing as a respectable billionaire.

Truth. As my former union organizer wife likes to say, you don't get that rich without hurting a lot of people along the way.

[Slateman]

https://twitter.com/WALLACHLEGAL/status/1735393846584885312

UPDATE: The Nationals and Orioles have entered into a stipulation that the $305 million arbitration award in the Nationals' favor should be confirmed.

[Natsinpwc]

Good news I hope for a sale. 

[machpost]

It must mean there's movement somewhere.

[Senatorswin]

https://twitter.com/WALLACHLEGAL/status/1735393846584885312

Excellent.

[nfotiu]

Wow, can't believe it's over.

There is a court hearing today regarding the future of Bally's and MLB.   MLB is asking to be paid in full for 2024 or have the rights cancelled immediately.   If it's over for Bally's, then 2024+ MASN reset is going to be messy with half the teams getting some subsidized amount from the MLB.   Something has to give here pretty quickly.