Yes, and yet people are falling all over themselves demanding Rizzo blow big $ on free agent contracts this offseason. CC! Reyes! Wilson!
It seems more of those mega-deals fail than succeed for the clubs giving them.
One of the problems with free agency is the fallacy that the best on the market is worth a contract comparable or better than the best on the market in the past. There are very few players worth 5+ years and $100+MM. Far fewer than there are contracts of that type. This is especially the case for ballplayers who hit free agency in their 30s.
Consider last year's outfield class. It is probably true that there will be no FA outfielder this year who is as good as Werth or Crawford was going into last year's free agent period. I don't buy Posnanski's critique of Crawford's pre-2011 career trajectory because any reference to his career SLG up to that point misses that he was growing into power as he hit 28 /29, right when he should have been. Also, Werth had put up 3 or 4 good years in a row offensively and was not of the body type that deteriorates fast. I'll admit I probably fall victim to the Crawford is one of the most exciting ballplayers in baseball v. one of the best players in baseball mistake. There is no way these guys were in the absolute elite of baseball. We are not talking A-Rod in his prime, or Miggy, or even Longoria / Hamilton level. Werth of course was overpaid to get him to come to a building ballclub, much like Pudge and Magglio were overpaid to build up Detroit. But Boston's reaction, to say Werth set the market and overpay for Crawford because he was the best OF available until the 2013 class of FAs, was dumb.
