Author Topic: 2011 Trade Watch (was trade deadline watch) (Read 85623 times)

kirubel94 · « **Reply #675 on:** July 29, 2011, 12:48:33 pm »

Quote from: sportsnyan882 on July 29, 2011, 12:45:22 pm

Gibson has struggled this year in AAA but that would be a nice deal.

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on July 29, 2011, 12:46:21 pm

Drew is an awesome dude... his mom even comments on my twitter account when I say something nice about him... but if you can get a CF'er for a closer... I have to say yes to the deal.

Agree with linty here, drew is a real nice guy/player but i'd take an consistent every day player than a closer. By the way, if that kyle gibson guy is involved, pull the trigger.

tomterp · « **Reply #676 on:** July 29, 2011, 12:54:00 pm »

Quote from: kirubel94 on July 29, 2011, 12:48:33 pm

Agree with linty here, drew is a real nice guy/player but i'd take an consistent every day player than a closer.

I disagree on the value of a position player being higher than a pitcher because of the "every day" thing, but CF/leadoff is by probably our worst vortex of suck, and we could probably backfill the hole left by Storen at least partially, for a net gain to the team.

UMDNats · « **Reply #677 on:** July 29, 2011, 12:57:45 pm »

From last year, but this is timely and relevant:

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/11/26/the-age-of-the-setup-man/

Quote

Top six winning percentages with leads entering the ninth inning:
1. Tampa Bay .988 (81-1)
2. San Diego .987 (77-1)
3. St. Louis .987 (74-1)
4. Oakland .986 (73-1)
5. Detroit .986 (70-1)
6. Kansas City .981 (53-1)

Bottom six winning percentages with leads entering the ninth inning:
30. Baltimore .869 (53-8)
29. Los Angeles .908 (69-7)
28. Milwaukee .914 (64-6)
27. Arizona .923 (60-5)
26. Texas .924 (73-6)
25. Colorado and Houston .932 (69-5)

Quote

The truth is that all the bullpen advances have had ABSOLUTELY ZERO EFFECT on how much more often teams win games they’re leading in the ninth inning. Zero. Nada. Zilch. The ol’ bagel.

Teams held 95.5% of their ninth-inning leads in 2010. Teams held 95.5% of their ninth-inning leads in 1952.

He goes on to argue that set-up men are far more important than closers because set-up men come in those more difficult situations usually. It's an interesting read.

I love Drew but closers are not that important in the grand scheme of things. I do wonder about the PR hit Rizzo would take for giving up Storen. It's a really risky move with this team right now to trade away a successful fan favorite, even if it's in a move that is good for the franchise. I wonder if Rizzo has the balls to do it. I guess we'll see.

blue911 · « **Reply #678 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:01:22 pm »

Quote

Teams held 95.5% of their ninth-inning leads in 2010. Teams held 95.5% of their ninth-inning leads in 1952.

All that tells me is that teams tend to use their bullpens the same way.

Evolution33 · « **Reply #679 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:04:15 pm »

When rumored deals are as big of no-brainers as Storen/Bernie for Span/Gibson I always doubt them because it would have happened if it were real.

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #680 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:07:38 pm »

Storen/Bernie/Desmond for Span/Gibson. They can have Coffey/Burnett too if they want them.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #681 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:09:21 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on July 29, 2011, 01:01:22 pm

All that tells me is that teams tend to use their bullpens the same way.

Really? I did not think the emphasis on the bullpen and relief specialist came in until after Elroy Face, that Mike Marshall / Dennis Eckersley clean 9th ininng specialist was an 80s invention, and that the defined set up guy was a little later than that.

RD · « **Reply #682 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:11:52 pm »

How many of those games counted are by 3 runs or less?

Non save sitiation games of course skew the numbers. When you're winning by 4 or more, I'd say its 99% that teams win the game.

And tell that stat to the teams that are desperately trying to add help to their pen. It absolutely matters, especially down the stretch and in the playoffs. That one game you lose could end your season.

RD · « **Reply #683 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:14:23 pm »

And btw, if Ginson is involved, do it.

Storen and Bernie(even Desmond included) for Span and Gibson is a good move.

PatsNats28 · « **Reply #684 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:16:52 pm »

Anyone got a good scouting report on Gibson?

EdStroud · « **Reply #685 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:21:35 pm »

7/27/11
Prospect Gibson skips start at Triple-A

Twins top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson skipped his scheduled start with Triple-A Rochester on Wednesday, as he's experiencing soreness near his right elbow.

The right-hander has struggled recently, allowing 13 runs over his last two starts, falling to 3-8 with a 4.81 ERA in 18 starts with the Red Wings. The 23-year-old has also struck out 91 batters and walked just 27 in 95 1/3 innings, while allowing 11 homers.

The 2009 first-round Draft pick remains a candidate to be recalled at some point this season, but needs to prove he's healthy and improve his results in order for the club to call him up being that he's not on the 40-man roster.

RD · « **Reply #686 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:22:52 pm »

Not really a frontline guy but solid mid rotation guy. Sits low 90's but has very good secondary stuff. 2 seamer, slider, and change. Poised and polished on the mound.

You can probably find a scouting report from the draft. He was only drafted 2 years ago. On my phone so no link, but he was apotential top 5 pick that fell for some concerns over an elbow injury.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #687 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:23:34 pm »

From Hulet in Fangraphs this off season. #2 prospect in a depleted system.

Quote

2. Kyle Gibson, RHP
Acquired: 2009 1st Round (Missouri)
2010 Level: Hi A, AA, AAA
Opening Day Age: 23.5

Notes: Just weeks before the 2009 draft, Gibson looked like a lock to go in the top 10, but suddenly his velocity dropped into the mid 80s. He was eventually diagnosed with a forearm injury, and he fell to the Twins with the 22nd pick. Healthy in 2010, Gibson had an impressive season. Over 16 starts in AA he had a 3.08 FIP, and he finished the season in AAA. In many ways, Gibson is a prototypical Twins pitcher. He doesn’t have power stuff, but he succeeds by pounding the strike zone. Gibson had a BB/9 of only 2.3 last year and an equally impressive 58% ground-ball rate. The biggest concern in Gibson’s game is his lack of strikeouts. He posted only a 7.5 K/9 in 2010, and he doesn’t ever figure to be a big strikeout pitcher. Strikeouts certainly aren’t everything, but they are important. With his struggles to miss bats on a consistent basis, Gibson strikes me as a more of a solid starter than a front-of-the-rotation arm some are billing him as.

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #688 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:23:41 pm »

He was a health risk when he was drafted too if I remember correctly. Gibson also has really struggled this year. Injury could be the reason. I see TJ surgery in his near future. Do not want.

RD · « **Reply #689 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:24:00 pm »

More elbow concerns could be a problem. Didn't realize he was having more elbow issues.

EdStroud · « **Reply #690 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:24:05 pm »

Quote from: PatsNats28 on July 29, 2011, 01:16:52 pm

Anyone got a good scouting report on Gibson?

from Feb, 2011

http://baseballnewshound.com/?p=178

tomterp · « **Reply #691 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:24:15 pm »

Sounds like he's almost ready for TJ.

Might be a long term project worth taking on.

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #692 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:25:12 pm »

Quote

Rival executives tell ESPN.com’s Buster Olney that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is intent on finding a center fielder. "It's his Holy Grail," a rival GM said. "He's bound and determined to get an established guy.” Denard Span of the Twins is Rizzo’s current target.

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #693 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:25:16 pm »

A groundballing soft tosser with elbow problems. If he can't hit and has good beef, he'd be a Rizzo wet dream!

PatsNats28 · « **Reply #694 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:25:59 pm »

If the medical reports check out, I like him.

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #695 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:26:29 pm »

Quote from: Tyler Durden on July 29, 2011, 01:25:16 pm

A groundballing soft tosser with elbow problems. If he can't hit and has good beef, he'd be a Rizzo wet dream!

Gibson is 6' 6", 210 lbs. Should be good enough beef for Rizzo

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #696 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:28:25 pm »

Take Span now... let Gibson get cut on and hope for the best.

I really like the deal, to be honest.

NFA Brian · « **Reply #697 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:32:19 pm »

Gibson is pretty much Jason Marquis

spidernat · « **Reply #698 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:36:52 pm »

Quote from: sportsnyan882 on July 29, 2011, 01:26:29 pm

Gibson is 6' 6", 210 lbs. Should be good enough beef for Rizzo

Rizzo and Wood probably need to see him naked in the shower before signing off on that.

blue911 · « **Reply #699 on:** July 29, 2011, 01:39:12 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 29, 2011, 01:09:21 pm

Really? I did not think the emphasis on the bullpen and relief specialist came in until after Elroy Face, that Mike Marshall / Dennis Eckersley clean 9th ininng specialist was an 80s invention, and that the defined set up guy was a little later than that.

Bullpens have been evolving forever but that isn't what he said. He stated that the difference between good and bad wasn't much and that hasn't change. But that has nothing to do with how a bullpen is used. It is simply measures the difference for a given year. For instance in 1952 the National League played 1236 games of which 444 were complete games. In 2010 the NL played 2592 games of which 72 were complete games. So even the the difference between good and bad maybe as little as 5%, the difference in the number of games effected is huge.