Could we pursue Joe Blanton?

[RyanTheRiot]

In a perfect world, we pull off a trade for Greinke without giving up Jay Z, and then sign Webb.  I'd stay away from Carl Pavano, though.

[Potomac Cannons]

In a perfect world, we pull off a trade for Greinke without giving up Jay Z, and then sign Webb.  I'd stay away from Carl Pavano, though.

Still want a legitimate reason to stay away from Pavano.  Top 35 in every single repeatable statistic for SPs the last two years once he got healthy.  He's a #2 SP.

[Spinman]

Still want a legitimate reason to stay away from Pavano.  Top 35 in every single repeatable statistic for SPs the last two years once he got healthy.  He's a #2 SP.

I Agree!

[NatsDad14]

Still want a legitimate reason to stay away from Pavano.  Top 35 in every single repeatable statistic for SPs the last two years once he got healthy.  He's a #2 SP.

ERA and RA is a repeatable stat. You can keep denying that and live in a fantasy world, but RA is a better predictor or equal predictor of future success than stats like FIP. Of course you are going to ignore this point despite evidence to the contrary.

[Potomac Cannons]

I wouldn't have made that Mark Reynolds trade above with Storen and Clippard. 

Reynolds is a 27 year old power hitter with a career 9.1 WAR (3.6 and 2.4 in 09-10).  Clippard gave 1.4 WAR last year to get up to a career spot of 1.1.  Storen gave 0.7.  As much as a top tier closer has value, regular bullpen guys are interchangeable and should be considered trade pieces whenever needed.  Clippard/Storen pitching about as well as two young relievers can be expected to do gave less combined WAR that Reynolds whose value would only go up moving from 3B to 1B.

[Tyler Durden]

Why would Reynolds' value go up going from 3B to 1B?  1B is a much easier position to fill.

[NatsDad14]

I think they should have traded Storen and Clippard for Reynolds.

That actually would be a fairly solid deal.

This post can not be serious. Mark Reynolds was traded for David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. The same David Hernandez who had a 4.31 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and near 5 BB/9. This is the same Kam Mickolio that had a 6.37 ERA this year in AAA, yet you wouldn't be opposed to trading 2 relief pitchers who are clearly superior to any of the garbage that Arizona received for Reynolds.

[DPMOmaha]

Decent arms can be found for the pen in FA (big caveat - as long as they don't go digging in the bargain bin - I've had quite enough of the Mike MacDougals of the world, thank you).

This is what Peralta was, btw.

I Agree!

so do I.

[Potomac Cannons]

Why would Reynolds' value go up going from 3B to 1B?  1B is a much easier position to fill.

Takes defense way down in the equation for WAR and Reynolds was a bad fielder prior to last season.  It minimizes his possible deficiency while maximizing his best skill.

[NatsDad14]

Why would Reynolds' value go up going from 3B to 1B?  1B is a much easier position to fill.

According to Fangraphs, the difference between 3B and 1B is 15 runs. That is a hard gap to fill for someone who has never played 1B. According to UZR/150 he is a -6 defender in his career at 3B. He would need to be a +9 defender at 1B. Only 2 players at 1B did that last year. So Reynolds needs to be about the best defender at 1B to get equal value.

[RyanTheRiot]

After educating myself a bit on Carl Pavano, he might be a decent add at the right price.  He's basically Jason Marquis with much better command.  I'd be wary giving him a 3 year deal though.  He'll be 35 next month.

[Potomac Cannons]

After educating myself a bit on Carl Pavano, he might be a decent add at the right price.  He's basically Jason Marquis with much better command.  I'd be wary giving him a 3 year deal though.  He'll be 35 next month.

2 year max for sure.  With that said, I'm betting that's why he's supposedly asking for 3.

[RyanTheRiot]

The Rangers might be desperate enough to give him that third year, along with a $10 million per year salary, after losing out on Cliff Lee.  He's the best FA starting arm left

[Tyler Durden]

I don't buy the Reynolds thing at all for first base.  There are many more solid 1B options than Mark Reynolds than there are 3B options.  And that's before trading away maybe the 2 best bullpen arms for him.

[welch]

Still want a legitimate reason to stay away from Pavano.  Top 35 in every single repeatable statistic for SPs the last two years once he got healthy.  He's a #2 SP.

OK, PCan, joking aside. I've looked carefully at Pavano's stats, and tried to ignore the fact that millions of Yankee fans have only contempt for the guy.

I see a pitcher who has thrown two good seasons out of twelve in the majors. One was 2004, so long ago that it is irrelevant. The other was last season. Before, and in between, Pavano has never had a season with less than 1.2 WHIP. Outside those 2000, 2004, and 2010, he has had an ERA of 4 and 5. He strikes out about 5 batters per nine innings, walks 2, so he's yet another control pitcher...a Jason Marquis except for 2004. The numbers look consistent, except for 2004 and last year.

The numbers suggest that Pavano's 2010 was an unusually good season, but that he is consistently mediocre. Not dramatically better than the pitchers the Nats have.

However, Pavano only costs money.

I think it would be a mistake to trade any of the few tradeable players the Nats have. Sure, if the Royals will take N Morgan and a reliever other than Storen for Greinke, then that's fine. Unlikely, however.

[spidernat]

However, Pavano only costs money.

Blasphemy with this ownership.

[Potomac Cannons]

OK, PCan, joking aside. I've looked carefully at Pavano's stats, and tried to ignore the fact that millions of Yankee fans have only contempt for the guy.

I see a pitcher who has thrown two good seasons out of twelve in the majors.

He's been top 35 in every meaningful, repeatable statistic for the last two years.  Add in 03-04 both being good seasons (04 being his best year) and he's been top 35 or better his last 4 healthy years.

If you only see two good years then you simply can't even approach being honest.  His only negative when healthy is being below league average in K/9.  Everything else is very good.

[RyanTheRiot]

Blasphemy with this ownership.

Because Werth didn't sign for $126 million or anything...

[RyanTheRiot]

Also, just curious which repeatable stats you're referring to, cannon

[NatsDad14]

Also, just curious which repeatable stats you're referring to, cannon

RA is a repeatable stat, but Potomac Cannons keeps ignoring the facts.

[Potomac Cannons]

Also, just curious which repeatable stats you're referring to, cannon

Things like FIP, K/BB, WHIP etc.  The stats that leave out the secondary factors (unlike ERA, W etc.).  Pavano is routinely top 35 in actual pitching stats when healthy.

[The Chief]

Because Werth didn't sign for $126 million or anything...

You know, the Werth signing has bought them some time in my book, but IMO it proves nothing in the near term in and of itself.  The contract is backloaded and you have no idea how they might get rid of the loaded part in 4 years.

Not LACing (yet) but come on, one backloaded contract does not absolve them of 4 years of crappy low-cost rosters.

[asindc]

Yes, but could /= should

That was my immediate thought when I saw the thread title.  The only reason Philly is trying to move him is to dump salary.  At $8.25 million or anything close to it, nope.

[welch]

Things like FIP, K/BB, WHIP etc.  The stats that leave out the secondary factors (unlike ERA, W etc.).  Pavano is routinely top 35 in actual pitching stats when healthy.

Take out the two odd seasons, 2004 and 2010. What does Pavano look like? I tend to look at WHIP and BB/9 and K/9. The walks and strikeouts make Pavano look like a typical control pitcher. He doesn't walk many guys, and he doesn't strike them out, either. He tends to look like Bobby Ojeda without the consistency. Skip Ojeda's '86 just as anyone should ignore Pavano's 2004.

Is Pavano top-35 in all seasons, or just in 2010? In both leagues? His career stats say that he gives up a lot of runs, doesn't strike people out, and on a good day pitches like a 35 year old John Lannan. Yes, Lannan is not bad, but both he and Pavano seem like number 4 starters. Of all those twelve seasons, Pavano would not have been in the Yankees rotation except for 2004. Maybe behind, maybe ahead of Phil Hughes in 2010.

I'm looking for good things in Pavano, but just not seeing them.

If we take Pavano's career, he looks

[Lintyfresh85]

Trade for James Shields.

/It's my new thing.