Could we pursue Joe Blanton?

[RyanTheRiot]

With the Phillies reacquiring Cliff Lee, they have a lot of money committed to their top four starters.  Joe Blanton is still owed $17 mil over the next two seasons, so they will be looking to move him.

Let's be honest.  Our rotation for this upcoming season is very weak in its current state.  Greinke would be a nice piece to add, but we still need to fill out the entire starting five.  Joe Blanton has been consistent, if not good, over the last six seasons, putting up 17.4 wins-above-replacement (an average of 2.9 per season). For those unfamiliar with the statistic, 1 WAR is roughly equal to $5 million in terms of what they player's salary "should" be, in today's economy. Livan had 3 wins last season, and Jordan Zimmermann can pitch at that level, but there is a big drop-off after those two.  In terms of WAR, Blanton's worst season (2010: 1.9) is better than John Lannan's best (2009: 1.5).  He would be a huge upgrade.

Although he's sometimes perceived as overpaid, fat, lazy, etc, Blanton has shown over the last 6 years that he is a respectable #3 starter in any given NL rotation.  He would instantly improve our rotation's ever-important-yet-significantly-lacking ability to strike people out.  (An aside on the value of the strikeout: "An out is an out" when Nyjer Morgan robs someone of a double, but the potential for a double would not have been there had the pitcher struck out the batter. A strikeout pitcher is better than a pitch-to-contact guy any day of the weak, ground balls being equal).  Blanton's K's/9 is a respectable 7.2 over the last two seasons.  Jordan Zimmermann can punch batters out (8.75 K/9 career), but after him, there is a big drop-off.  John Lannan, Yunesky Maya and Livan Hernandez cannot be counted on to pile up the K's (unless Eric Gregg is calling the balls and "strikes."  Flash back: http://www.nytimes.com/1997/10/13/sports/league-championship-series-outside-chance-hernandez-s-15-strikeouts-put-marlins.html)

At $8.5 million dollars per season, Blanton might seem expensive on the surface.  But I suspect the Phillies will be willing to eat a significant portion of his contract in order to get a deal done, and they will still save a lot of money.  Amaro probably won't get full value in terms of prospects for him, either.  I wouldn't be surprised if he's now on Rizzo's radar. 

[Spinman]

My take is this.  They get a combo of Pavano/Garza/Webb.

Rotation
 Livo,Lannan,Marquis, J Zimm, Garza/Pavano/Webb   

[HalfSmokes]

Yes, but could /= should

[Potomac Cannons]

There are better options to deal with than the Phils right now and better potential trade acquisitions.

Blanton would have to come behind Greinke/Garza/Shields/Floyd/Danks/Pavano and even Penny/Francis at this point.

[Tyler Durden]

No.  We should not help the Phillies get out of the Blanton contract.  I realize I may be making that statement out of spite rather than rationally weighing (har) the positives and negatives of Blanton. 

[Spinman]

A Greinke deal will include us moving Desmond, J Zimm. I still think we will get Pavano,Garza or Webb, possibly 2 of the three if there is no Greinke deal.

[Spinman]

Penny maybe... Blanton I doubt it.

[Spinman]

I wouldn't want to be a starting pitcher in our system right now with Rizzo looking elsewhere to fill his rotation.

JD,Mock,Stammen,Maya, Wang,Meyers, Detwiler,Atliano,Thompson,Chico all competing for no, nada, zero, spots available!

[Potomac Cannons]

I wouldn't want to be a starting pitcher in our system right now with Rizzo looking elsewhere to fill his rotation.

JD,Mock,Stammen,Maya, Wang,Meyers, Detwiler,Atliano,Thompson,Chico all competing for no, nada, zero, spots available!

Maya, Meyers, Milone all have the potential to force their way in over someone like Livo.  2012 likely clears both Livo and Marquis out of the mix while only bringing back Strasburg.

[Spinman]

Maya, Meyers, Milone all have the potential to force their way in over someone like Livo.  2012 likely clears both Livo and Marquis out of the mix while only bringing back Strasburg.

Still, 10 guys for no spots! There is ... "no room at the INN!"

2012 Rotation... Lannan, Pavano,JZimm, Strasburg,Garza

[Spinman]

Wang is no longer a National.

They are still working on a deal.  Ok,  9 guys for zero spots.

[Spinman]

The Nats will have to start to "Dump" some arms this off season and at ST.

[Tyler Durden]

We'd have to send some of them out for a trade.  With the way teams are valuing young arms, I'd have to think someone will give up value.  Mark Reynolds, for example, went to the O's for 2 arms - one good and one just OK.  Or maybe we trade some of our current relievers and turn the AAAA starters into bullpen guys.

[Tyler Durden]

Also - no to Fat Joe Blanton.

[Potomac Cannons]

Still, 10 guys for no spots! There is ... "no room at the INN!"

2012 Rotation... Lannan, Pavano,JZimm, Strasburg,Garza

If the Lannan from the end of last year shows up, you're right.  If it's the Lannan prior to that then there's a rotation spot waiting to be won.  Not sure if Pavano would be a two year deal though.

[Spinman]

We'd have to send some of them out for a trade.  With the way teams are valuing young arms, I'd have to think someone will give up value.  Mark Reynolds, for example, went to the O's for 2 arms - one good and one just OK.  Or maybe we trade some of our current relievers and turn the AAAA starters into bullpen guys.

Which relievers would you trade?

[PANatsFan]

Which relievers would you trade?

I think they should have traded Storen and Clippard for Reynolds.

[Spinman]

If the Lannan from the end of last year shows up, you're right.  If it's the Lannan prior to that then there's a rotation spot waiting to be won.  Not sure if Pavano would be a two year deal though.

Because of Strasburg's return in 2012 a lot of the pitchers want to be on the Nats roster as they build the kind of rotation that the phillies have.

[Potomac Cannons]

I think they should have traded Storen and Clippard for Reynolds.

That actually would be a fairly solid deal.

[Tyler Durden]

Any and all of them if the price was right.  Nobody's untouchable on a 90+ loss team.  I'd try to hang on to Burnett since he's a dependable lefty, but the crooked cap makes me hate him a little. 

But if it took Storen or Clippard and Norris to bring in a solid starter, I'd do that. 

[Spinman]

I think they should have traded Storen and Clippard for Reynolds.

Yikes!  Who would you replace Clip and Storen with?

[PANatsFan]

Yikes!  Who would you replace Clip and Storen with?

Peralta and a FA.

[Spinman]

Any and all of them if the price was right.  Nobody's untouchable on a 90+ loss team.  I'd try to hang on to Burnett since he's a dependable lefty, but the crooked cap makes me hate him a little. 

But if it took Storen or Clippard and Norris to bring in a solid starter, I'd do that. 

90  loss team yes , however, the bullpen pitched like a 90 win , contending team. I wouldn't mess with the bullpen.

[Tyler Durden]

Well - I agree that the bullpen was good, but how much worse was the rest of the team then? 

I'd definitely give up some bullpen guys to improve the rest of the team.  If trading bullpen depth meant improving the 1B, CF, or starting rotation, I'd do that without a second thought.  Decent arms can be found for the pen in FA (big caveat - as long as they don't go digging in the bargain bin - I've had quite enough of the Mike MacDougals of the world, thank you).

I wouldn't have made that Mark Reynolds trade above with Storen and Clippard. 

 

[Potomac Cannons]

Yikes!  Who would you replace Clip and Storen with?

Peralta and one of the myriad of in house options.  We've got plenty of AAAA SPs and guys like Kimball/Carr to give a shot to.