My Prediction: Harper Plays for Nats in 2011

[RL04]

As a September call-up.

Assuming he's playing well and no injury of course.

You heard it here first.   

[Lintyfresh85]

I hope not.

But, if he's good enough, hard to keep him down.

[DPMOmaha]

I hope not.

Why?

It wouldn't shock me at all to see him get his feet wet next Sept. 

[Sharp]

I doubt this very, very much.  That would require him to advance around one minor league level per month like Strasburg did, for more months (Hagerstown, Potomac, Harrisburg, Syracuse)  and with way less polish and experience.  Strasburg could realistically have been the Nats' opening-day starter and they still gave him a month to obliterate AA, then AAA, before they finally called him up.  Unless you think Bryce Harper is going to do the hitting equivalent of what Stras did (which I guess would be hitting near .400 with a .500 OBP and .600+ SLG) at every level of the minors, he's not going to follow the same trajectory.

I guess you could argue that he might be called up from AA.  That'd still be less than two months per level.  Since Rizzo likes to wait for a prospect to dominate a league before advancing him, that would still be a ridiculously short amount of time for Bryce to adapt.  Ain't happening IMO, unless he starts in high A.

[DPMOmaha]

If he gets to AA, I would not be suprised at all to see him as a Sept. call up.

[PANatsFan]

I doubt this very, very much.  That would require him to advance around one minor league level per month like Strasburg did, for more months (Hagerstown, Potomac, Harrisburg, Syracuse)  and with way less polish and experience.  Strasburg could realistically have been the Nats' opening-day starter and they still gave him a month to obliterate AA, then AAA, before they finally called him up.  Unless you think Bryce Harper is going to do the hitting equivalent of what Stras did (which I guess would be hitting near .400 with a .500 OBP and .600+ SLG) at every level of the minors, he's not going to follow the same trajectory.

I guess you could argue that he might be called up from AA.  That'd still be less than two months per level.  Since Rizzo likes to wait for a prospect to dominate a league before advancing him, that would still be a ridiculously short amount of time for Bryce to adapt.  Ain't happening IMO, unless he starts in high A.

That is absolutely not true. Keep him high A, bring him up for september to get a taste of how things work, option him to AA. He doesn't need to rise incrementally.

[Sharp]

That is absolutely not true. Keep him high A, bring him up for september to get a taste of how things work, option him to AA. He doesn't need to rise incrementally.

When was the last time the Nats brought a prospect from high A straight to the majors?  Have they ever done it?  If not, and people don't think he's going to at a minimum have spent a while dominating AA by September 1st, I see no reason to believe he'll be the first.

[PANatsFan]

When was the last time the Nats brought a prospect from high A straight to the majors?  Have they ever done it?  If not, and people don't think he's going to at a minimum have spent a while dominating AA by September 1st, I see no reason to believe he'll be the first.

Ross Detwiler pitched 1 inning the year he was drafted; it was a contractual obligation.

[Sharp]

Ross Detwiler pitched 1 inning the year he was drafted; it was a contractual obligation.

I don't think Bryce has any such contractual obligation, though, and I suspect most would agree with me in calling that an extenuating circumstance.

[PANatsFan]

I don't think Bryce has any such contractual obligation, though, and I suspect most would agree with me in calling that an extenuating circumstance.

That's your opinion, we'll see I think we can all agree he'll get an invite to major league spring camp.

[Sharp]

That's your opinion, we'll see I think we can all agree he'll get an invite to major league spring camp.

Definitely.  I think they even said as much already.  But saying Bryce is ready to work out with major leaguers doesn't mean he's ready to face them in a real game.

[OldNatsFan]

As a September call-up.

Assuming he's playing well and no injury of course.

You heard it here first.   

I agree. He will most likely be called up next Sept. Arod and Griffey came up at 18 if I'm not mistaken.

[Evolution33]

I hope the team doesn't let anything, but performance effect their decision. If Harper clubs minor league pitching he has a chance for a September call-up.

[welch]

When was the last time the Nats brought a prospect from high A straight to the majors?  Have they ever done it?  If not, and people don't think he's going to at a minimum have spent a while dominating AA by September 1st, I see no reason to believe he'll be the first.

Easy question, if you're an old die-hard Nats fan:

- Harmon Killebrew
- Jerry Schoonmaker.

MLB had a rule in the early '50s that a team that gave an amateur a signing bonus had to keep that player on the major league roster for two or three years. The players were called "bonus babies", and Killebrew and Schoonmaker were the Nats hope and pride.

Killer hit a mega-homerun when he was about 17 -- I was listening to Arch MacDonald or Bob Woolf that day -- but neither player could play like a real major-leaguer. Schoonmaker disappeared, but Killebrew went to Chattanooga (I'm assuming...they were the Nats top farm-team) and came back in 1959 to tie Mickey Mantle for the AL HR championship.

Unless Harper is much better than Harmon Killebrew, genuine Hall of Famer, he will need a year or two in the minors.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Didn't John Lannan or Justin Maxwell come up from Potomac as a reward for a good season?

[EdStroud]

I agree. He will most likely be called up next Sept. Arod and Griffey came up at 18 if I'm not mistaken.

ARod 18 and Griffey 19

Found this;

Youngest Position Player in the Modern Era

Tommy “Buckshot” Brown was 16 years, 8 months old when he made his first appearance for the Brooklyn Dodgers on August 3, 1944. The previous record had been set in 1909 when Frank “Coonie” Blank, age 16 years, 9 months, played his first and only major league game with the St. Louis Cardinals.

[imref]

from a purely marketing perspective, the Nats will do everything they can to have Harper and Strasburg appear in September to build hype (and season ticket sales) for 2012.

[PowerBoater69]

When was the last time the Nats brought a prospect from high A straight to the majors?  Have they ever done it?  If not, and people don't think he's going to at a minimum have spent a while dominating AA by September 1st, I see no reason to believe he'll be the first.

If anyone is going to be rushed through the minors it's Harper, the only downside is that he could flop in his first stint in DC, but it's not like he's a pitcher who needs to be babied.

[PANatsFan]

Didn't John Lannan or Justin Maxwell come up from Potomac as a reward for a good season?

Lannan went Potomac, AAA, majors from out of nowhere IIRC.

[welch]

While we're on the topic, Tom Brown went straight from the University of Maryland, where he played CF and hit over 400, to the Nats and started at 1B about 1962. Brown had hit up a storm on spring training, so President Kennedy asked if the Senators shouldn't start "the kid from Maryland" on opening day.

Brown wasn't ready for major league pitching; he was sent to the minors in mid-season and probably never played another big-league game.

He did, of course, win two Super Bowl rings as a starting safety for the Lombardi Packers. Brown was a wide receiver, kick returner, and defensive back for the Terps. He also started as shotgun tailback in his final game: drove the opening kickoff down for a TD and later returned an interception about 99 yards for another TD.

Tom Brown might have been the best athlete ever from the Washington area, but he would have needed a few years in the minors to play baseball at the major league level.

I don;t expect to see Harper until 2012.

[aspenbubba]

Brown might have been the best athlete ever from the Washington area, but he would have needed a few years in the minors to play baseball at the major league level.

.

Went to high school at Montgomery Blair and graduated in 58 or 59 if I recall.

[RL04]

from a purely marketing perspective, the Nats will do everything they can to have Harper and Strasburg appear in September to build hype (and season ticket sales) for 2012.

Yeah, I also think the same.

[HalfSmokes]

from a purely marketing perspective, the Nats will do everything they can to have Harper and Strasburg appear in September to build hype (and season ticket sales) for 2012.

no reason not to. I don't see the harm in a cup of coffee for Harper (if Strass is pushed to come back before he fully recovers, that's a different story, but I wouldn't expect the team to risk him), and I really doubt calling him up will torpedo out late season surge for a wild card in 2011

[Sharp]

Could it possibly start his arbitration clock early?  That would be my chief concern.  Probably not I guess because he wouldn't have enough time in the majors, but I really don't know.  Bryce has pretty much already said that as soon as he hits free agency he'll sign with the Yankees, so we should be aiming to delay that moment as long as possible.

[HalfSmokes]

It would give hime ~1 month of service time, it might be enough to push back his call up when he is ready by a month. If he really wants to be a Yankee, I say leave him at catcher and call him up when he's ready to catch in the majors, if we only get 6 years of him, might as well make them as close to his peak as possible