Fangraphs trying to discredit Clippard... attack!

[Lintyfresh85]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/tyler-clippards-deceptive-results/

I think we should all come to his defense... obviously the guy makes some good points... but as I pointed out, I think his line about his BABIP being unsustainable is wrong wrong wrong.

So, I say to all Nats fans... unite and tell this man he's wrong!

[The Chief]

Who knew I'd get a chance to use this again so soon?

[Kevrock]

I don't understand BABIP. It seems to me that BABIP is used to discredit any pitcher who isn't a strikeout pitcher.

[Lintyfresh85]

BABIP is basically a stat that should tell you how lucky/unlucky a pitcher is.

It doesn't apply to Clippard as much because he's a flyball pitcher which will always result in a lower BABIP than most.

Grounballs = more hits = higher BABIP
Flyballs = less hits = lower BABIP... but, there is a trade off in mroe HR's and XBH's

[JMUalumni]

BABIP is a trend stat.  It can tell you something that MAY happen in the future based off of previous results, but I don't put too much stock in it and most people misuse it anyway.  I really don't pay any attention to it unless it is <.100 or >.500.  Its best use is for fantasy baseball.

[hammondsnats]

WNFF > Fangraphs

there it is.  we win.

[wpa2629]

[CJames0569]

WNFF > Fangraphs

there it is.  we win.

[HalfSmokes]

Its best use is for fantasy baseball.

This, I also think its more useful for hitters than pitchers, since for a pitcher its supposed to revert to their own career norm which has all kinds of inherent problems (pitchers develop, have off years, pitch differently as starters and relievers, and for young relievers sample size is a huge problem). For hitters, when combined with ground/line drive/fly ball rates, it's pretty useful to tell if a guys is 'lucky' or not

[Salamander Man]

Clippard has pitched wonderfully, but it's not like he's expected to have an ERA under 1 so yes, he has been lucky.  I don't think the writer is saying Clippard is going to blow up, just stating that Clippard has been lucky, which is obvious. 

The part about allowing other pitchers runners to score is a decent point. 

I do believe the pitcher has a little control over BABIP though many people believe they have zero.  But, BABIP can vary a lot.  Look at Mariano Riveras 2006 vs. 2007 season.  He pitched much better in 2007 but, his ERA was 1.35 points higher because of a ridiculously high BABIP (.335)  Balls were just falling in, it happens.  (Sometimes due to bad defense) 

Likewise, Clippard isn't going to be able to sustain a BABIP in the low 200's.  Doesn't mean he won't be a good reliever. though.

[JMUalumni]

This, I also think its more useful for hitters than pitchers, since for a pitcher its supposed to revert to their own career norm which has all kinds of inherent problems (pitchers develop, have off years, pitch differently as starters and relievers, and for young relievers sample size is a huge problem). For hitters, when combined with ground/line drive/fly ball rates, it's pretty useful to tell if a guys is 'lucky' or not

Agreed, the majority of misuses I have seen have come when applied to pitchers, but it does account for the defense playing behind a pitcher, which can easily affect the amount of balls that successfully get through holes or the balls that fielders get to.

[shoeshineboy]

I don't think this is discrediting him. It points out the things he does vey well that is helping him and rightfully points out the fluky things like the wins. I've felt from the getgo that he is better when he starts an inning. The inherited runners scoring could be seen as a problem, but that's the game. There's a reason the charge them to the guy that put them there. Clippard has benefitted from defense, but so what. He's been effective. It is unlikely to be sustained at this level, but it is unlikely he will just collapse.

[PANatsFan]

BABIP is inversely proportional to defense behind you. An upgrade in BABIP this season is inevitable for all Nats pitchers.

[Salamander Man]

BABIP is basically a stat that should tell you how lucky/unlucky a pitcher is.

It doesn't apply to Clippard as much because he's a flyball pitcher which will always result in a lower BABIP than most.

Grounballs = more hits = higher BABIP
Flyballs = less hits = lower BABIP... but, there is a trade off in mroe HR's and XBH's

Well, it does apply to him.  He's likely to have a lower BABIP, but you can still compare his BABIP to other years and other similar pitchers.

But, the fact that his BABIP is so low, he's a flyball pitcher, and he's not giving up homers/extra base hits suggest some luck.  Having said that, if he were to pitch to his FIP, he'd still be a good reliever. 

[Evolution33]

I have noticed a couple hard hit ball by Clippard that guys have made diving catches on. Like the victory against the Marlins in Miami, but guys don't often put it in play against him, and he can be wild at times leading to even less balls in play. As long as he stay effective I am all for it. I don't worry too much with stats being against relievers. Just ride them while their hot and either trade them when someone is willing to pay closer price for a set-up man or middle reliever or burn on up and ship the next guy in.

[Salamander Man]

BABIP is inversely proportional to defense behind you. An upgrade in BABIP this season is inevitable for all Nats pitchers.

I don't think that is 100% accurate.  Just as a comparison, IMO, the Nats defense is much better than the Braves.  Especially the infield.  But, they have the exact same BABIP given up as a team.  And the Braves have a higher ground ball rate. 

[Evolution33]

One thing I dislike about fangraphs is they assume you know what every obscure stat is. Like they were talking about Clippards WPA. I look it up on google and find out Clippard was building bridges during the Great Depression. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Works_Progress_Administration

[Lintyfresh85]

BABIP is supposed to be a fluke stat. That's why stat geeks look at FIP and xFIP... because it tells you what he's doing when the ball isn't put in play... thus what he "controls".

None of the stats are perfect... but a low BABIP usually means the guy is either a.) a flyball pitcher b.) lucky c.) both.

[Lintyfresh85]

One thing I dislike about fangraphs is they assume you know what every obscure stat is. Like they were talking about Clippards WPA. I look it up on google and find out Clippard was building bridges during the Great Depression. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Works_Progress_Administration

WPA stands for win percentage added.

Basically, did the guy come in and improve his teams chances of winning. Capps leads the league in Reliever WPA because he's done such a bang up job. Clippard is in the top 5... though he was first until his recent "rough" patch.

[PANatsFan]

I don't think that is 100% accurate.  Just as a comparison, IMO, the Nats defense is much better than the Braves.  Especially the infield.  But, they have the exact same BABIP given up as a team.  And the Braves have a higher ground ball rate. 

SM, you can't compare two staffs of DIFFERENT pitchers. But the SAME pitchers with a better defense, you'd expect BABIP to go down.

[Lintyfresh85]

SM, you can't compare two staffs of DIFFERENT pitchers. But the SAME pitchers with a better defense, you'd expect BABIP to go down.

Correct.

[blue911]

Clippard's BABIP was .201 in 2009. I'm having a hard time believing he can't maintain a higher BABIP.

[JCA-CrystalCity]