Starting Rotation Discussion (5/1/2010)

[NatsDad14]

Like the plan there except I'd move Lannan to the pen and keep Stammen in the rotation if things stay close to how they are now.

Lannan is the better pitcher. Moving him to the Pen takes away his best quality: Inning eating. There were only 22 pitchers from 2008-2009 who had more IP and a better ERA than Lannan. Only 9 of those guys were Lefthanded and just 2 were younger than Lannan. Stammen has not shown that he can pitch any deeper in games than Lannan can.

[hammondsnats]

Lannan is the better pitcher. Moving him to the Pen takes away his best quality: Inning eating. There were only 22 pitchers from 2008-2009 who had more IP and a better ERA than Lannan. Only 9 of those guys were Lefthanded and just 2 were younger than Lannan. Stammen has not shown that he can pitch any deeper in games than Lannan can.

completely agree.  and i say this strictly non-emotionally, keeping Lannan in the rotation will be the smarter move.

1) he's lefty.  2) he's crafty.  3) he eats innings.  4) honestly, he's earned it.

stammen would make an excellent long man out of the pen i think.  especially with that sinker to force double play balls.

[The Chief]

If Stammen can continue to go 7/3 and 8/2, I say you give him every chance to continue proving he belongs in the rotation.

[hammondsnats]

If Stammen can continue to go 7/3 and 8/2, I say you give him every chance to continue proving he belongs in the rotation.

i'm not saying he's the first to go ... i think atilano will be.  but after strasburg, you have wang and then if marquis is available you're gonna have to figure out what to do with him.  and face it, detwiler could be ready by june and he has better stuff than most of the guys in the rotation right now (same with zimmermann in august) ... some tough decisions ahead for the FO, but it's a good problem to have.

i've always been a fan of stammen.  hope he continues to pitch the way he has been.

[PANatsFan]

i'm not saying he's the first to go ... i think atilano will be.  but after strasburg, you have wang and then if marquis is available you're gonna have to figure out what to do with him.  and face it, detwiler could be ready by june and he has better stuff than most of the guys in the rotation right now (same with zimmermann in august) ... some tough decisions ahead for the FO, but it's a good problem to have.

i've always been a fan of stammen.  hope he continues to pitch the way he has been.

I hope and expect that Rizzo will continue to go with performance. If Atilano is pitching better than Lannan, Lannan needs to be optioned.

[UMDNats]

Or, and I know this is crazy...we could trade a pitcher for a RF or something. 

[NatsDad14]

I doubt Zimmermann comes back before the rosters expands so he is not a problem. I think the team keeps Detwiler in AAA in deference to the veterans. Atilano, Stammen are the guys who will get replaced. If Livan pitches like he has in the past few years he will eventually get replaced. Olsen is a prime candidate to get traded. Cheap, Young, Lefty should command some decent prospects.

[NatsDad14]

I hope and expect that Rizzo will continue to go with performance. If Atilano is pitching better than Lannan, Lannan needs to be optioned.

The same logic the Cubs used to send Zambrano to the bullpen, but it was the wrong decision. You don't replace your ace with an unproven guy until that guy proves something.

[hammondsnats]

I hope and expect that Rizzo will continue to go with performance. If Atilano is pitching better than Lannan, Lannan needs to be optioned.

i'll just say agree to disagree.

[PANatsFan]

The same logic the Cubs used to send Zambrano to the bullpen, but it was the wrong decision. You don't replace your ace with an unproven guy until that guy proves something.

Lannan is not an ace. He's just not. He is a major league starter. But this team has at least 9 major league starters. I believe this is the last year Lannan  can be optioned involuntarily. You have to take advantage of roster flexibility.

[The Chief]

Atilano, Stammen are the guys who will get replaced. If Livan pitches like he has in the past few years he will eventually get replaced. Olsen is a prime candidate to get traded. Cheap, Young, Lefty should command some decent prospects.

Atilano is just a placeholder for Marquis, so that spot is still spoken for.  I disagree that Stammen will be replaced unless his performance starts to suffer.  Same goes for Hernandez.  I think you're spot on with Olsen, though I'm not yet convinced he can keep those baserunners from scoring.

Personally, I think Wang is a pipe dream at this point, and I don't think Detwiler is a shoe-in either.  Strasburg is the only one I'm counting on.

[hammondsnats]

Atilano is just a placeholder for Marquis, so that spot is still spoken for.  I disagree that Stammen will be replaced unless his performance starts to suffer.  Same goes for Hernandez.  I think you're spot on with Olsen, though I'm not yet convinced he can keep those baserunners from scoring.

Personally, I think Wang is a pipe dream at this point, and I don't think Detwiler is a shoe-in either.  Strasburg is the only one I'm counting on.

if wang shows he's healthy, you need to insert him into the rotation.  look @ what he did for the yanks. 

as for detwiler, he didn't earn a spot in his performance last year, but he really came on strong at the end.  again, i think he has better stuff than most of the guys in the rotation, but he's not a lock.  he'll have to work his way back.  that injury really hurt his chances - but he's still young.

[blue911]

Atilano is just a placeholder for Marquis, so that spot is still spoken for.  I disagree that Stammen will be replaced unless his performance starts to suffer.  Same goes for Hernandez.  I think you're spot on with Olsen, though I'm not yet convinced he can keep those baserunners from scoring.

Personally, I think Wang is a pipe dream at this point, and I don't think Detwiler is a shoe-in either.  Strasburg is the only one I'm counting on.

+1

[NatsDad14]

Atilano is just a placeholder for Marquis, so that spot is still spoken for.  I disagree that Stammen will be replaced unless his performance starts to suffer.  Same goes for Hernandez.  I think you're spot on with Olsen, though I'm not yet convinced he can keep those baserunners from scoring.

Personally, I think Wang is a pipe dream at this point, and I don't think Detwiler is a shoe-in either.  Strasburg is the only one I'm counting on.

I agree with you. Atilano is gone unless his ERA is under 2. I think the team gives Marquis another chance. If they do, they have to replace one of Olsen, Stammen, or Livan to bring up Strasburg. I'm not sure Wang will be ready until at least the ASB. If I was the Nats, I would be patient with him. I feel bad for Detwiler. He had a spot locked up, but now he probably has to stay in AAA until a few guys get injured. If he was healthy and had an opportunity, I think he would have breakout year.

[Potomac Cannons]

Walker is solid and durable. Batista is very useful as an arm that can be pitched into oblivion if needed, and his numbers have been reasonable for a garbage time specialist.

Bruney is a very talented pitcher slumping.

Tavares is a AAA player. Seems like a cool guy, but his play says DFA.

Batista and Walker are placeholders for guys like Storen and whichever starter gets bumped to the pen. 

Bruney sucks.  Always has, always will.

[Potomac Cannons]

Lannan is the better pitcher. Moving him to the Pen takes away his best quality: Inning eating. There were only 22 pitchers from 2008-2009 who had more IP and a better ERA than Lannan. Only 9 of those guys were Lefthanded and just 2 were younger than Lannan. Stammen has not shown that he can pitch any deeper in games than Lannan can.

Who cares about ERA?  It means nothing.  FIP/xFIP show what a pitcher does without defensive influence.  Lannan is above average at best.  He's a 4th/5th starter on a good team (note how well we are playing with his starts being pretty bad so far).  Stammen has better stuff and has likely passed him by already.  I don't see Lannan as part of the rotation once this team becomes a true playoff contender.

[PANatsFan]

Last comment here:

This team will actually take some account of, wait for it, wins and losses. Best start in 5 years means keeping guys based on performance if their option status is equal. Someone will go for Strasburg, someone will go for Marquis, too. Atilano has still not pitched deep into a game.

But Olsen is pitching far better than Lannan. It's not close right now. No way you option the guy putting up the zeroes and the K's.

[NatsDad14]

Who cares about ERA?  It means nothing.  FIP/xFIP show what a pitcher does without defensive influence.  Lannan is above average at best.  He's a 4th/5th starter on a good team (note how well we are playing with his starts being pretty bad so far).  Stammen has better stuff and has likely passed him by already.  I don't see Lannan as part of the rotation once this team becomes a true playoff contender.

FIP is a flawed stat. It doesn't take into account groundballs and DP's. Plus, Lannan has shown an ability to outpitch his peripherals probably because he is a good pitcher when men are on base. Stammen does have a good WHIP, but he allows too many HR's and a high percentage of his hits allowed are Extra base hits. Not to mention that Lannan has shown he can throw 200+ IP while Stammen hasn't

[Potomac Cannons]

The same logic the Cubs used to send Zambrano to the bullpen, but it was the wrong decision. You don't replace your ace with an unproven guy until that guy proves something.

What ace?  Zambrano hasn't been an ace for 2 years at least.  He's a #2/#3 SP and that team needed the pen help more than a slumping starter.

Silva, Dempster, Gorzelanny and Wells were all clearly pitching better than Z.  He's been good in the pen, Lilly has done well as a starter since his return, and the Cubs problem is they are middle of the pack in everything right now.

[Potomac Cannons]

FIP is a flawed stat. It doesn't take into account groundballs and DP's. Plus, Lannan has shown an ability to outpitch his peripherals probably because he is a good pitcher when men are on base. Stammen does have a good WHIP, but he allows too many HR's and a high percentage of his hits allowed are Extra base hits. Not to mention that Lannan has shown he can throw 200+ IP while Stammen hasn't

ERA is a much more flawed stat as it doesn't take into account the quality of defense behind the pitcher.  Lannan would be a solid back of the rotation starter on a great defensive team, but if you have better options, and we do, you don't leave a guy out there who can't K batters, BB a higher than average amount and gives up 1 HR/9.

Of qualified starters last year Lannan was 66th of 75 in BB/9, 75th in K/9, 36th in HR/9, 52nd in WHIP, 38th in ERA, 65th in FIP, 67th in ERA/FIP differential (meaning only 7 pitchers had a larger gap between ERA and FIP).

He's a young innings eater and nothing more.  There's only so long you can tempt fate with pretty mediocre numbers that are better than they should be.  If you can role out 7-8 guys with better talent, keeping Lannan in the pen for spot starts and injury coverage, then you do that.

[NatsDad14]

ERA is a much more flawed stat as it doesn't take into account the quality of defense behind the pitcher.  Lannan would be a solid back of the rotation starter on a great defensive team, but if you have better options, and we do, you don't leave a guy out there who can't K batters, BB a higher than average amount and gives up 1 HR/9.

Of qualified starters last year Lannan was 66th of 75 in BB/9, 75th in K/9, 36th in HR/9, 52nd in WHIP, 38th in ERA, 65th in FIP, 67th in ERA/FIP differential (meaning only 7 pitchers had a larger gap between ERA and FIP).

He's a young innings eater and nothing more.  There's only so long you can tempt fate with pretty mediocre numbers that are better than they should be.  If you can role out 7-8 guys with better talent, keeping Lannan in the pen for spot starts and injury coverage, then you do that.

I'm not sure where you are getting those BB/9 numbers because Lannan was above average in BB/9. K's get overrated at times. If you looked at the bottom 10 in K/9, only 2 of those guys had below average ERA+ compared to 1 for the top 10 K/9. The difference between the 2 groups is not a huge gap as should be expected. I'll wait a full season before I say that Lannan's FIP is more indicative of his abilities than his ERA.

[PANatsFan]

Potomac:

GMU:

And the funny thing is I completely agree with Potomac Cannons.

[Potomac Cannons]

I'm not sure where you are getting those BB/9 numbers because Lannan was above average in BB/9. K's get overrated at times. If you looked at the bottom 10 in K/9, only 2 of those guys had below average ERA+ compared to 1 for the top 10 K/9. The difference between the 2 groups is not a huge gap as should be expected. I'll wait a full season before I say that Lannan's FIP is more indicative of his abilities than his ERA.

Above what average for BB/9?  In 2009 75 SPs qualified for official rankings.  Lannan was 50th of 75  (66% were better--flipped those numbers first time) in BB/9 in what was his best rate by far.

ERA and ERA+ ignore fielding influence completely.  FIP/xFIP remove them to give a true picture of what the pitcher is doing regardless of the defense behind them.  Unless team UZR and other defensive factors are added in, ERA/ERA+ are extremely incomplete and erroneous measures.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Atilano is just a placeholder for Marquis, so that spot is still spoken for.  I disagree that Stammen will be replaced unless his performance starts to suffer.  Same goes for Hernandez.  I think you're spot on with Olsen, though I'm not yet convinced he can keep those baserunners from scoring.

Personally, I think Wang is a pipe dream at this point, and I don't think Detwiler is a shoe-in either.  Strasburg is the only one I'm counting on.

It's amazing to me that everyone's acting like Wang/Detwiler are almost automatic to become mainstays in the rotation later this year.  Far from it.

[Potomac Cannons]

It's amazing to me that everyone's acting like Wang/Detwiler are almost automatic to become mainstays in the rotation later this year.  Far from it.

With the way the pitching is going right now, you're right.  I can't imagine Livan suddenly being this good again for the long term.  I can't imagine there not being at least one long term injury.  I can't imagine all of our current starting five continuing to pitch as they are right now.  I can't imagine a situation where we don't move at least one of the current five to the pen and maybe trade another.

Wang and Detwiler may well have to force their way in.  I like that scenario quite a bit.

There may be a time this year where Livan, Stammen, Marquis, Olsen and Lannan are a good starting five and yet we'll have Atilano, Strasburg, Martin, Chuck James, Thompson, Wang and Detwiler all looking to force their way in.  I'd love to use that situation to send something like Marquis, Martin and a lower level prospect to LA for one of their OF.