UZR ratings are out

[Lintyfresh85]

Look who's dramatically improved his UZR/150.

2009 UZR/150 : -28.1
2010 UZR/150 Projection: -6.9

Adam Dunn!

I'm proud of the big man. He's worked hard at 1B and is now a slightly below average 1B, compared to being one of the worst in the league.

Good work!

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

[Galah]

He actually looks comfortable out there.
Frankly, I like that he's got the defensive kinks worked out, because I'm not worried Bout his bat.

[Hondo]

I would be more than confortable to ink dunn to a long term deal as our 1b

[HalfSmokes]

doesn't UZR require a huge sample size to be accurate?

[NeedaNewNick]

I would be more than confortable to ink dunn to a long term deal as our 1b

doubt he's got many 40 HR years left, but also doubt his OBP will fall much - I'd sign him too as long as he doesn't still expect $10 million per

that said, I think locking up Willingham is more important - he's in great shape and probably has another 3-4 years of high Slugging % left

[Kevrock]

doubt he's got many 40 HR years left

Why?

[NeedaNewNick]

Why?

his HR production slowed toward the end of last year, he's been healthy, is aging, and has just 3 extra base hits - not like the HRs are even turning into doubles

that said, his ability to get on base is still very strong, not just the walks, but he's striking out at a lower rate than he used to

[natsfan4evr]

his HR production slowed toward the end of last year, he's been healthy, is aging, and has just 3 extra base hits - not like the HRs are even turning into doubles

that said, his ability to get on base is still very strong, not just the walks, but he's striking out at a lower rate than he used to

I guess Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder are done as well then? Good thing we didn't sign Tex

[Evolution33]

Damn these aging players. Shouldn't draft Bryce Harper.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

doesn't UZR require a huge sample size to be accurate?

3 years is the line you hear the most.  UZR/150 is particularly tippy at this point due to a few plays having outside influence.

Having said that, the common (un)wisdom about Dunn was he could not field any position, and many pointed to his UZR/150 from last year at 1st to support that view.  Live by the small sample, die by it.  The other thing that is interesting is that FJB observed that his bad UZR was mostly racked up when he was a spot fill in for Nick, and that once he moved over full time he stopped piling up negative UZR runs. 

This all kind of jibes with what we all casually observed - that he is not a historically bad first baseman and his play seemed OK once he was a regular. If he is just a -5 to -10 fielder in terms of talent, he is a 4+ WAR player.

[some of you will take that statement as praise, some will take it as gibberish.]

[DPMOmaha]

[some of you will take that statement as praise, some will take it as gibberish.]

Some of us will take it as both...

[HalfSmokes]

I guess Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder are done as well then? Good thing we didn't sign Tex

probably should avoid Gonzalez too

[blue911]

3 years is the line you hear the most.  UZR/150 is particularly tippy at this point due to a few plays having outside influence.

Having said that, the common (un)wisdom about Dunn was he could not field any position, and many pointed to his UZR/150 from last year at 1st to support that view.  Live by the small sample, die by it.  The other thing that is interesting is that FJB observed that his bad UZR was mostly racked up when he was a spot fill in for Nick, and that once he moved over full time he stopped piling up negative UZR runs. 

This all kind of jibes with what we all casually observed - that he is not a historically bad first baseman and his play seemed OK once he was a regular. If he is just a -5 to -10 fielder in terms of talent, he is a 4+ WAR player.

[some of you will take that statement as praise, some will take it as gibberish.]

But it isn't authentic frontier gibberish

[houston-nat]

But it isn't authentic frontier gibberish

Now who can argue with that?

[Nick the Pig]

doesn't UZR require a huge sample size to be accurate?

Yes.

Case in point, Zimmerman's UZR/150 for 2010 is currently -8.4, with Morgan at -36.9.

I do think that Dunn has/will improve his defense at 1B, but UZR #'s are meaningless this soon into a season.

[JMUalumni]

They aren't necessarily meaningless.  They still give you an indication of how a well a player is playing defense at any given time, but as far as indicating how good of a defender a player is, they are they are pretty meaningless at this point.

[Nick the Pig]

They aren't necessarily meaningless.  They still give you an indication of how a well a player is playing defense at any given time, but as far as indicating how good of a defender a player is, they are they are pretty meaningless at this point.

So Zimmerman's playing actively bad defense so far this year ?

[Lintyfresh85]

That wouldn't be a big surprise.

I think PANats said he looked horrible because of his bad leg. He couldn't get to balls, cover bases, etc. etc.

He might actually be playing some bad defense right now.

[JMUalumni]

So Zimmerman's playing actively bad defense so far this year ?

Yes, he has made some mistakes and less plays than past seasons so far.  You have to consider that he was coming off of injury and his range was not as great as it has been.  The UZR is absolutely an indication of this.

[PANatsFan]

That wouldn't be a big surprise.

I think PANats said he looked horrible because of his bad leg. He couldn't get to balls, cover bases, etc. etc.

He might actually be playing some bad defense right now.

On Sunday, I'd stake my reputation on it. He didn't leg out a pop fly in the 1st because he couldn't. Haven't watched him carefully since.

[Hondo]

true, I guess it's just the fact that watching him play seems to match his UZR

Yes.

Case in point, Zimmerman's UZR/150 for 2010 is currently -8.4, with Morgan at -36.9.

I do think that Dunn has/will improve his defense at 1B, but UZR #'s are meaningless this soon into a season.

[Lintyfresh85]

true, I guess it's just the fact that watching him play seems to match his UZR

Right, that's what I was getting at.

We've all seen what looks to be an uptick in his defense... and the early UZR numbers corroborate our observations.

[Nick the Pig]

Yes, he has made some mistakes and less plays than past seasons so far.  You have to consider that he was coming off of injury and his range was not as great as it has been.  The UZR is absolutely an indication of this.

I have to disagree.  Whether he's playing substandard defense or not (he might not as good as last year so far, but he's still been better than average in my opinion) a dozen games of fielding stats is meaningless for indicating anything.

Johnny Damon has a 66.1 UZR/150 so far.  Does than mean he's turned into Superman in the outfield for the first three weeks of April, despite his career -5.2 UZR/150 there ?

Or perhaps that he's simply had a disproportionate amount of balls hit his way so far ?

[PANatsFan]

I have to disagree.  Whether he's playing substandard defense or not (he might not as good as last year so far, but he's still been better than average in my opinion) a dozen games of fielding stats is meaningless for indicating anything.

Johnny Damon has a 66.1 UZR/150 so far.  Does than mean he's turned into Superman in the outfield for the first three weeks of April, despite his career -5.2 UZR/150 there ?

Or perhaps that he's simply had a disproportionate amount of balls hit his way so far ?

By the same token, any player who started a majority of the season could have their UZR (not UZR/150) compared with the UZR of any other in 2010.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Saying a dozen games of UZR does not reflect what a guy has done in that dozen games is a bit like saying a home run total for a dozen games does not reflect the guys home runs in that period.  You might be crazy if you said Alex Gonzalez is a better power hitter than Adam Dunn because he has 4 home runs over a dozen game stretch while Dunn has one, but if the question is who has more home runs over his first dozen games, the correct answer Alex Gonzalez.  Substitute Zimmerman for Dunn and Damon for Gonzalez, and you have the same point.  Zimmerman has not made plays that an average 3b would make over this stretch, while Damon has made plays that an average LF would not make (given the historical records of fielding).