MLB & Division Watching (2010)

[Lintyfresh85]

Has the word been passed down that MLB is thinking about contracting the Rangers because this trade feels a little Minayaish.

It really does. Who gives up this amount of talent for three months outside of Minaya?

Daniels is a smart GM... something smells funny about it.

[spidernat]

Well, we know that they're unlikely to be able to re-sign Lee for next season.  We had better be in the bidding!

[PANatsFan]

Didn't know you could trade someone on the DL, but Lowe seems like a decent pitcher.

[houston-nat]

Didn't know you could trade someone on the DL, but Lowe seems like a decent pitcher.

Luis Atilano

[PANatsFan]

Luis Atilano

Touche, mon frere.

Also, he was in the minor leagues.

[Lintyfresh85]

[JCA-CrystalCity]

They can afford to give up Smoak because they have Chris Davis.  But seriously, it is a little different than what Minaya did to us. He was trying to make up ground to get into playoff contention.  The Rangers are in first and trying to ice the playoffs and compete against the big boys.  Another thing to think about with the Rangers is that they have the deepest farm system in MLB by a few raters.  They can afford to give up some prospects. 

If the reports are to be believed, the alternative deals were Hicks and Ramos from the Twins or Montero, Adams, and an unsettled player that caused the deal to crash.  Montero > Smoak, and Hicks plus Ramos is huge.  Smoak was not out of line with the market price for Lee.

[blue911]

They can afford to give up Smoak because they have Chris Davis.  But seriously, it is a little different than what Minaya did to us. He was trying to make up ground to get into playoff contention.  The Rangers are in first and trying to ice the playoffs and compete against the big boys.  Another thing to think about with the Rangers is that they have the deepest farm system in MLB by a few raters.  They can afford to give up some prospects. 

If the reports are to be believed, the alternative deals were Hicks and Ramos from the Twins or Montero, Adams, and an unsettled player that caused the deal to crash.  Montero > Smoak, and Hicks plus Ramos is huge.  Smoak was not out of line with the market price for Lee.

IDK, it seems like the Phillies gave up less for Lee last season, when he was under contract for a full season longer. And the Rangers ARE citing Chris Davis as the replacement for Smoak.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

IDK, it seems like the Phillies gave up less for Lee last season, when he was under contract for a full season longer. And the Rangers ARE citing Chris Davis as the replacement for Smoak.

I agree that Cleveland did not get anything near Smoak in its deal last year.  I think Amaro got that one right.  I think Texas is delusional if they think Davis is a player.  Maybe they move Max Ramirez to first, but I'm guessing they think they have enough offense for this year.  My point is if one team is offering Montero, and another is offering Ramos and Hicks, you can only get into the market by offering an top tier, price controlled, potential star.  WE can argue whether it was smart, but I don't see a deal getting done w/o smoak.

[tomterp]

  WE can argue whether it was smart, but I don't see a deal getting done w/o smoak.

The Mariners GM said as much in his press conference.

[Potomac Cannons]

The Mariners GM said as much in his press conference.

Yep.  Get a premier prospect or take the two picks in the offseason when the Yanks inevitably sign him.  That's the right way to build.  Jack Z has that team heading the right way quickly.

[blue911]

I agree that Cleveland did not get anything near Smoak in its deal last year.  I think Amaro got that one right.  I think Texas is delusional if they think Davis is a player.  Maybe they move Max Ramirez to first, but I'm guessing they think they have enough offense for this year.  My point is if one team is offering Montero, and another is offering Ramos and Hicks, you can only get into the market by offering an top tier, price controlled, potential star.  WE can argue whether it was smart, but I don't see a deal getting done w/o smoak.

Or I could be over valuing Justin Smoak. I've heard that the Rangers had real concerns about his inability to hit lefties.

[hammondsnats]

Youkilis calls out an injured Ellsbury.  No big surprise, seeing how it's Youkilis we're talking about.

[Potomac Cannons]

Please tell me someone else is watching the Fox broadcast of Mets/Braves.  Kevin Millar is the color guy.  Absolutely the worst announcer I've ever heard.  I've muted the game for 3-4 minutes at a time just to avoid him.  He's a freaking moron and sounds like a retarded Lou Piniella.  Just the worst possible voice for announcing and he makes Joe Morgan seem like a genius.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

From a Nats perspective, we ought to be happy that there are high prices being set for premier guys being traded in July.

ESPN uses some sort of playoff projector (not BP or coolstandings) that says the Rangers went from 95% likelihood of making the playoffs and 15% of winning the pennant to 99+% playoff chance and 30% chance of winning the pennant.  Lee was worth 3 extra wins by their calculation, which is huge if you are a marginal contender.  They were better than marginal, but still it is a big impact.

The other thing I see batted around all the time is a study on the value of Type A compensation.  It is about $9m in terms of WAR.  I would still expect the Rangers to offer arbitration to Lee, more or less expecting him to turn it down to get his big long term contract rather  than take a one year pay out.  So in essence, they get Lee, Lowe, and $9M in talent back in this deal.

Lowe was always talked about as a potential closer. He's coming off of injuries, gives up  too many flies, and has been a bit too lucky for my tastes, but I don't think Daniels goes for him if he did not think he could at least be a 7th inning guy to pair with Darren Oliver.  If he can close, or if he can take over the set up role and allow Frank Fransisco to go back to closer, then they might be able to move Feliz back into the rotation.  If that happens, then this is a great deal for this year.

[HalfSmokes]

The other thing I see batted around all the time is a study on the value of Type A compensation.  It is about $9m in terms of WAR.  I would still expect the Rangers to offer arbitration to Lee, more or less expecting him to turn it down to get his big long term contract rather  than take a one year pay out.  So in essence, they get Lee, Lowe, and $9M in talent back in this deal.

they hope, remember what happened to the Brewers expecting compensation for CC. If they yankees spend like drunken sailors again, who knows what will happen with comp picks

[PatsNats28]

Here's my guess: The deal to sell the Rangers is close to collapsing, and the trade for Cliff Lee is somewhat of a desperation move in hopes of attracting a buyer. And if I had the cash, I'd definitely buy that team - their farm is stacked.

[HalfSmokes]

Here's my guess: The deal to sell the Rangers is close to collapsing, and the trade for Cliff Lee is somewhat of a desperation move in hopes of attracting a buyer. And if I had the cash, I'd definitely buy that team - their farm is stacked.

why would a buyer who probably wouldn't take possession until next year be happy you traded away one of the team's best prospects for a rental who will be gone next year?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I've been reading the piece on the deal up on the source I cite too much (cue JMW4th and the eye roll) and the comments.  This is one of the commenters take on Beavan:

Beavan: Definitely the 2nd best piece. When drafted, Beavan was seen as a guy with a high 90s fastball and a developing slider…basically, he was projected to be a big power strikeout pitcher. Instead, his velocity dipped and now sits in the low 90s with his 4 seamer, and high 80s/low 90s with his 2 seamer. Nonetheless, Beavan has developed nicely as he has fantastic control and keeps the ball on the ground, while still notching a decent number of strikeouts. His changeup has reportedly made strides this year, so earlier fears that he may end up in the bullpen have been largely allayed. Beavan is a superior prospect to any of the guys the Mariners initially gave up for Lee, and could be ready some time in 2011.

Sounds like Craig Stammen.

Jack Moore's take is this is a heck of a dice roll by Daniels since he'll have to deal with Smoak for at least 6 more years.  

That said, I think in the AL, if you are not the NYY or maybe Boston and LAA, you have to make the deal that puts you over the top when you get the chance.  I think what the Indians went through after 2007 kind of supports that.  The Twins have never done the deal to get over the top, and have not been able to get by NYY.  You just don't get too many chances to get by the big boys.

[Potomac Cannons]

why would a buyer who probably wouldn't take possession until next year be happy you traded away one of the team's best prospects for a rental who will be gone next year?

The potential to be buying a team fresh off a WS win would seem to help make a sale.

[cmdterps44]

The potential to be buying a team fresh off a WS win would seem to help make a sale.

That and the Rangers are a damn good team. I still think the deal for Lee was kind of silly but it does make their bid for a WS contender that much better. Their lineup is so damn good.

[spidernat]

Please tell me someone else is watching the Fox broadcast of Mets/Braves.  Kevin Millar is the color guy.  Absolutely the worst announcer I've ever heard.  I've muted the game for 3-4 minutes at a time just to avoid him.  He's a freaking moron and sounds like a retarded Lou Piniella.  Just the worst possible voice for announcing and he makes Joe Morgan seem like a genius.

He's pretty bad. I don't know why they have him doing national games.

[Lintyfresh85]

Millar was awesome on MLB Tonight last night.

Maybe he's just good when working off Harold Reynolds?

[PC]

Millar was like an ice pick to the ears.

[PatsNats28]

why would a buyer who probably wouldn't take possession until next year be happy you traded away one of the team's best prospects for a rental who will be gone next year?

Doing well in the playoffs = more revenue, more interest in the team