Incredible interview with Elijah Dukes

[Nat of the Living Dead]

yeah we get it notld, you think differently than everyone else. and you disagree. and you have a right to express your opinion. and so on and so forth.

Something crawl up your ass tonight or what?

[JMW IV]

nope.

just saving us all 10 pages of bickering by pushing the potential argument to its inevitable conclusion.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

nope.

just saving us all 10 pages of bickering by pushing the potential argument to its inevitable conclusion.

The only one I see arguing here is you.

[JMW IV]

i said "potential argument."

[houston-nat]

Well, I'm so glad we successfully avoided having not having an argument.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

i said "potential argument."

There really wasn't going to be one, but okay.

[PatsNats28]

yeah, dukes sucks, is overrated, etc.

back on topic

[Minty Fresh]

I'm curious about the comment on how he needs to have a big year for a big pay day so he can change his mother's lifestyle.  Seems to me to be a lot of added pressure to put on yourself.

[ronnynat]

I'm curious about the comment on how he needs to have a big year for a big pay day so he can change his mother's lifestyle.  Seems to me to be a lot of added pressure to put on yourself.

Definitely. But if it helps him to put in the necessary work so he can have a good approach at the plate and in the field, that pressure can be a good thing. Dukes is the type of player who needs to be motivated by the money.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

I'm curious about the comment on how he needs to have a big year for a big pay day so he can change his mother's lifestyle.  Seems to me to be a lot of added pressure to put on yourself.

If it pumps him up and gives him motivation to reach his possible potential-- then I am all for it.

[Minty Fresh]

Definitely. But if it helps him to put in the necessary work so he can have a good approach at the plate and in the field, that pressure can be a good thing. Dukes is the type of player who needs to be motivated by the money.

If it pumps him up and gives him motivation to reach his possible potential-- then I am all for it.

Absolutely.  But does Dukes have the kind of personality that can overcome the pressure?

[Nat of the Living Dead]

Absolutely.  But does Dukes have the kind of personality that can overcome the pressure?

That is the question of questions. He certainly doesn't have the personality to lay off the first pitch most of the time so chances look slim, but let's see if the hard knocks he has had recently have awakened him into a man of men.

[Ray D]

He's an enigma at so many levels, baseball-wise alone, let aside personal life.

Agressive baserunner and fast, on one hand, and on the other hand, makes some of the dummest baserunning moves; strongest arm on the team, yet one of the least accurate; high energy hustle some of the time and apparently sluggish and indifferent the other times; aggressively pursues fly balls in front of him but cannot go after a ball towards the line.  

But the biggest is at the plate: he has great plate discipline and strike zone recognition, but  now he has developed the damning Church-like  inability to lay off the low breaking ball away. The right handed pitchers picked up on that second half last season. If he doesn't adjust, he'll end up like Church.  What is he doing this winter to work on that?

[Nat of the Living Dead]

He's an enigma at so many levels, baseball-wise alone, let aside personal life.

Agressive baserunner and fast, on one hand, and on the other hand, makes some of the dummest baserunning moves; strongest arm on the team, yet one of the least accurate; high energy hustle some of the time and apparently sluggish and indifferent the other times; aggressively pursues fly balls in front of him but cannot go after a ball towards the line.   

But the biggest is at the plate: he has great plate discipline and strike zone recognition, but  now he has developed the damning Church-like habit of inability to lay off the low breaking ball away. The right handed pitchers picked up on that second half last season. If he doesn't adjust, he'll end up like Church against left handers.  What is he doing this winter to work on that?

I agree with all of this except the "great plate discipline part." I know people love to list this as one of his qualities, but I still fail to see it. Majority of the time he swings at the first pitch, windmills at complete garbage and as you said, the low breaking ball has become a problem for him.

He certainly is not bad at the plate, but he isn't some Saint of Swat either. I'll be down at ST this year and you can bet I am going to count the amount of times I see him swing at that first pitch. Last year he had that problem during ST and it was horrible to watch.

[Lintyfresh85]

I agree with all of this except the "great plate discipline part." I know people love to list this as one of his qualities, but I still fail to see it. Majority of the time he swings at the first pitch, windmills at complete garbage and as you said, the low breaking ball has become a problem for him.

He certainly is not bad at the plate, but he isn't some Saint of Swat either. I'll be down at ST this year and you can bet I am going to count the amount of times I see him swing at that first pitch. Last year he had that problem during ST and it was horrible to watch.

The average walk rate for the last three in the major league looks like this. 8.7%, 8.9% and 9.1%. Dukes over those three years has put up walk rates of 15.2%, 15.3% and 11.2%.

I think the claim that he has great plate discipline is certainly true from a statistical point.  

[NatsDad14]

Dukes is a unique case. He has great plate discipline, yet he swings at an insane amount of 1st pitches. If he holds back on that pitch, he usually does a great job of working the count.

[Ray D]

I have to concede I haven't paid attention to his first pitch swinging. But if one is going to point to that as a serious flaw  I'd like to know some stats about what happened on those pitches and those at bats.  How many first pitch outs? First pitch hits? First pitch swing and miss, or foul, and of those what happened on that at bat?  Probably too late to do that sort of analysis for last season but maybe one of our enterprising baseball scientists might set up some way to capture this sort of information for next season.

[ronnynat]

I have to concede I haven't paid attention to his first pitch swinging. But if one is going to point to that as a serious flaw  I'd like to know some stats about what happened on those pitches and those at bats.  How many first pitch outs? First pitch hits? First pitch swing and miss, or foul, and of those what happened on that at bat?  Probably too late to do that sort of analysis for last season but maybe one of our enterprising baseball scientists might set up some way to capture this sort of information for next season.

This is what I could find.

2009 Splits

Split         G GS  PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
First Pitch     53  73    71 22  3  0  2  14  0  0  0  0 .310 .329  .437  .765 31   1   2  0  0   0   1  .290   109    74
1-0 Count       26  29    29  8  4  0  0   8  0  0  0  0 .276 .276  .414  .690 12   1   0  0  0   0   0  .276    87    55
2-0 Count        9   9     9  5  2  0  0   4  0  0  0  0 .556 .556  .778 1.333  7   0   0  0  0   0   0  .556   263   169
3-0 Count       10  11     3  2  0  0  1   1  0  0  8  0 .667 .909 1.667 2.576  5   0   0  0  0   2   0  .500   594   219
0-1 Count       30  34    34 11  1  1  2   9  0  0  0  0 .324 .324  .588  .912 20   3   0  0  0   0   0  .281   146   122
1-1 Count       27  29    29 10  5  0  0   4  0  0  0  0 .345 .345  .517  .862 15   0   0  0  0   0   0  .345   134   101
2-1 Count       22  23    22  7  2  1  0   3  0  0  0  0 .318 .304  .500  .804 11   1   0  0  1   0   0  .304   117    79
3-1 Count       15  16     4  1  0  1  0   0  0  0 12  0 .250 .813  .750 1.563  3   0   0  0  0   0   0  .250   332   135
0-2 Count       27  27    26  2  1  0  0   0  0  0  0 12 .077 .111  .115  .226  3   1   1  0  0   0   0  .143   -38    20
1-2 Count       36  41    41  5  0  0  1   5  0  0  0 24 .122 .122  .195  .317  8   0   0  0  0   0   1  .250   -14    46
2-2 Count       47  64    62  9  0  1  2   6  0  0  0 22 .145 .141  .274  .415 17   1   0  0  2   0   0  .175    12    69
Full Count      47  60    34  9  2  0  0   4  0  0 26 16 .265 .583  .324  .907 11   0   0  0  0   0   1  .500   155   109
After 1-0       85 151   117 32 10  1  2        22 31 18 .274 .417  .427  .845 50   1   0  0  3   2   1  .300   132    99
After 2-0       37  50    34 11  3  0  1         5 16  7 .324 .540  .500 1.040 17   0   0  0  0   2   0  .385   188   103
After 3-0       13  14     4  3  0  0  1         1 10  0 .750 .929 1.500 2.429  6   0   0  0  0   2   0  .667   557   326
After 0-1       94 192   176 37  7  3  4        22 15 56 .210 .276  .352  .628 62   6   1  0  0   0   1  .284    72   100
After 1-1       88 152   125 31  8  3  2        18 24 30 .248 .362  .408  .770 51   1   0  0  3   0   2  .302   111   119
After 2-1       64  95    68 15  3  3  0         9 24 20 .221 .411  .353  .763 24   1   0  0  3   0   1  .294   112    84
After 3-1       29  32    13  4  0  1  0         3 19  3 .308 .719  .462 1.180  6   0   0  0  0   0   1  .400   231   114
After 0-2       56  78    71  8  1  0  1         4  6 37 .113 .192  .169  .361 12   2   1  0  0   0   0  .212     0    60
After 1-2       66 106    94 15  1  0  3         9 12 42 .160 .255  .266  .521 25   1   0  0  0   0   1  .245    43   102
After 2-2       67 108    87 15  2  1  2         7 19 35 .172 .315  .287  .602 25   1   0  0  2   0   0  .250    66    95
Three Balls     62  87    41 12  2  1  1   5  0  0 46 16 .293 .667  .463 1.130 19   0   0  0  0   2   1  .458   216   120
Two Strikes     93 192   163 25  3  1  3  15  0  0 26 74 .153 .271  .239  .510 39   2   1  0  2   0   2  .250    41    89

O-Swing% (outside the zone)
2007 - 17.5 %
2008 - 20.3 %
2009 - 26.6 %

Z-Swing% (inside the zone)
2007 - 66.6 %
2008 - 69.7 %
2009 - 78.4 %

Overall Swing%
2007 - 40.9 %
2008 - 43.8 %
2009 - 51.3 %   

[NatsDad14]

I have to concede I haven't paid attention to his first pitch swinging. But if one is going to point to that as a serious flaw  I'd like to know some stats about what happened on those pitches and those at bats.  How many first pitch outs? First pitch hits? First pitch swing and miss, or foul, and of those what happened on that at bat?  Probably too late to do that sort of analysis for last season but maybe one of our enterprising baseball scientists might set up some way to capture this sort of information for next season.

He swings at 47% of his 1st pitches and the MLB average is 26%. when he connects, it only goes for a .765 OPS compared to the NL average of .880 OPS.

[CJames0569]

He swings at 47% of his 1st pitches and the MLB average is 26%. when he connects, it only goes for a .765 OPS compared to the NL average of .880 OPS.

Someone needs to email this to Eckstein so he can tell Dukes to never ever under any circumstance swing at the first pitch of the at bat.

[tomterp]

Someone needs to email this to Eckstein so he can tell Dukes to never ever under any circumstance swing at the first pitch of the at bat.

No, because pitchers would then adjust their strategy to exploit the lack of aggressiveness, ie they would always pump in a first pitch strike.

He should just tighten down his zone a bit, only swing at "his" pitch.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He's an enigma at so many levels, baseball-wise alone, let aside personal life.

He is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.  Or Russia.  Take your pick.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

More seriously, I think Eckstein may have messed him up.  IIRC, there were articles last year in spring training about the brain trust wanting him to be more aggressive because they liked the result when he swung.  Those swing stats in post #42 show he had a huge jump in his swing rate and his first pitch swings.  I hope he just goes back to what he did before last year, even if it means blowing off Eckstein.

[houston-nat]

MASN reports that Dukes met with team management to lobby for Jim Riggleman during the manager search.
http://masnsports.com/2010/01/could-elijah-dukes-have-a-brea.html

[NatsNut]

I thought it was just the curve he was having trouble with and was supposed to try and master at Winter Ball.

Anyway, that article from Bill Latkins was so great.  I'm pulling for him to do well now more than ever, and not just for the team's sake either. 

Go Dukes!