The Bryce Harper Watch

[welch]

He needs to learn that he is part of an org. that wants to save $ by keeping him in the minors until the 2012 super 2 deadline.

I hope the Lerners have learned better. (OK, a feeble pun!). I seriously hope he steps up to Harrisburg by Memorial day. He can learn to survive the weariness of a long season, with road trips, just as well in AA. And then Syracuse about mid-July.

And Washington in September. I am happy to wait until mid-2012 for Strasburg, since he's recovering from a serious injury, and since the starters are OK most games. But Harper...if there are holes in his swing, these A-ball pitchers are not going to find them.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

The Dread Pirate Roberts.

[PANatsFan]

I hope the Lerners have learned better. (OK, a feeble pun!). I seriously hope he steps up to Harrisburg by Memorial day. He can learn to survive the weariness of a long season, with road trips, just as well in AA. And then Syracuse about mid-July.

And Washington in September. I am happy to wait until mid-2012 for Strasburg, since he's recovering from a serious injury, and since the starters are OK most games. But Harper...if there are holes in his swing, these A-ball pitchers are not going to find them.

NANN is a troll, his salary is set through 2015
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2012634959_apbbnnationalsharper.html?syndication=rss

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Actually, if the Lerners were in to saving money on Harper and making money for the team, they'd bring him up at the start of the next homestand.  That way, they could get 4+ seasons of him before arbitration and have him go into his only 2 years of arb eligibility coming off of a $1MM 2015 contract year.

[GNatsNoMore]

How have the crowds at Hagerstown been?  Have they been selling out every game?

I don't know about most nights, but on Friday, I think the seats were about half full, at best.  I was a little surprised, but it rained before the game and during the first few innings, so maybe there were some no-shows.

[NeedaNewNick]

his salary is set through 2015

No it isn't.   You can't delay arbitration by signing a draft pick to an MLB contract.  Arbitration is based on time on the 25 man, not the 40 man.   Same situation they faced with Strasburg.  Ben G wrote about this recently.  http://www.masnsports.com/the_goessling_game/2011/05/a-point-of-clarification-on-bryce-harper.html

You can resort to name calling to make up for your lack of understanding this.   But I've been a big fan of this team since they came here in 2005, and cannot believe the lack of urgency to win as the org heads into an appalling 6th straight losing season.   Slowing Harper's progress is even more disturbing when the high minors hitting prospects, notably Marrero, continue to underperform.  But the future is never now with this org, it's always about being "ready to compete" in two years, which is why they've been losing badly for six years.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No it isn't.   You can't delay arbitration by signing a draft pick to an MLB contract.  Arbitration is based on time on the 25 man, not the 40 man.   Same situation they faced with Strasburg.  Ben G wrote about this recently.  http://www.masnsports.com/the_goessling_game/2011/05/a-point-of-clarification-on-bryce-harper.html

No, you are wrong.  Ben did not go into details iin that article.  The situation is different from Strasburg.  Stras was signed from '09 to '12 per Cots.  Bringing him up in June '10 did make him ineligible for arb in in 2013 (> 4 months in '10, + 2011 and 2012 would be less than the Super 2 cut for 2013).  his contract did not cover 2013.  Harper, OTOH, has a 5 year contract, so the calculus is different.  Ben did not squarely address this issue. I flagged it in his comments for him, and here is his response:

JCA May 8, 2011 9:18 PM Reply
Ben - when the super 2 question popped up on WNFF, someone I think correctly pointed out that he is signed through 2015. That I think means he is not eligible for arbitration until the 2016 season. If he were brought up today or in September or the start of next year, it would not accelerate his arbitration status to earlier than 2016. As long as he is up before June of 2013, he will not have his arbitration eligibility pushed back to 2017. Also, if the rumors are right that both MLB and the MLBPA want to change the super 2 rule to push the date further back in the season (to discourage the incentive to game the system), then the super 2 issue becomes even less important. If Harper is potentially in the plans for 2012, then you may see a more accelerated promotion schedule.

Given how tough Norris has had it in AA, the jump to Harrisburg might be too optimistic. That said, I still have not seen Harper play at a level where pitchers regularly get him out (JUCO, AFL, Spring training, or Hagerstown). If he can learn to field as easily at Harrisburg as he can at Potomac or Hagerstown, then the jump from A to AA may make sense around the start of June.
------------------------
Yep, you're right. I was thinking his contract was like Strasburg's, where 2010 would have counted as the first year.

Ben

[PANatsFan]

JCA, the difference is that Ben G has no agenda because he is a real journalist.

This is beyond silly anyway because Strasburg could have started the season in the majors and been a #1 starter on most teams, while Harper is learning a new position and is just a kid.

[Lintyfresh85]

JCA, the difference is that Ben G has no agenda because he is a real journalist.

What makes someone a fake journalist.

[PANatsFan]

What makes someone a fake journalist.

Being a troll message board poster with an agenda (NANN).

[Lintyfresh85]

Being a troll message board poster with an agenda (NANN).

Well he's not a journalist at all.

I don't know why you'd compare a poster to a journalist. They're two different things.

[PANatsFan]

Well he's not a journalist at all.

I don't know why you'd compare a poster to a journalist. They're two different things.

Ben made an honest mistake because he wasn't bogged down in contract details and manned up immediately, which NANN is using the mistaken post to prove a nonexistent point. That's all I'm saying.

[tomterp]

Kevin Goldstein, BP:

Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (Low-A Hagerstown)
I've been on a kick lately about questions concerning when a prospect will be in the big leagues, so I misinterpreted a tweet late last week asking about Harper. The questioner simply mentioned the word “promotion,” and I wrongly mocking him. All he meant was a promotion to the Carolina League, which is suddenly looking more like a possibility before the All-Star break. With three multi-hit games over the weekend, Harper's .371/.460/.701 season line is impressive enough, but his ridiculous .466/.544/.948 line in his last 16 games show that he's too good for this level, despite being just 18. Much like last year at junior college, Harper isn't just as good as advertised, he's accomplishing the nearly impossible by being better.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13850

[hammondsnats]

he shouldn't be there anymore.  make the bump rizzo.

[Lintyfresh85]

He's at 97 AB's right now.

I bet they promote him somewhere around 150 AB's.

[GMUTrkstar]

I think he stays down there and plays in the All-Star game then moves up the A+. Really don't understand the rush to move him up, the teams doing great and the Nats like him working with the manager down there who is a former ML outfielder himself.

[NatsDad14]

I think he stays down there and plays in the All-Star game then moves up the A+. Really don't understand the rush to move him up, the teams doing great and the Nats like him working with the manager down there who is a former ML outfielder himself.

He should be moved because he is clearly ahead of this level. Would you leave Ryan Zimmerman in AAA right now? You wouldn't because it doesn't make sense. What does he gain beating up on little kids he is clearly ahead? He won't get better until he is challenged.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think he stays down there and plays in the All-Star game then moves up the A+. Really don't understand the rush to move him up, the teams doing great and the Nats like him working with the manager down there who is a former ML outfielder himself.

I think those who want him jumped to AA are searching for a level that can challenge him as a hitter and believe he can learn defense at any minor league level.  I think those who say keep him down in A ball justify their position by saying he needs to learn his defense at the lowest levels and that challenging him offensively is either futile in the minors or does not matter at this point.

[blue911]

Is it possible the Nats are waiting for Potomac to have a playable surface?

[GMUTrkstar]

He should be moved because he is clearly ahead of this level. Would you leave Ryan Zimmerman in AAA right now? You wouldn't because it doesn't make sense. What does he gain beating up on little kids he is clearly ahead? He won't get better until he is challenged.

Your comparing Apples and Oranges. Leaving Zimmerman in AAA when the ML team is struggling to hit and could actually use him is totally different than leaving Harper at A ball vs. A+. Currently Hagerstown is leading there division and by winning the 1st half division crown they're guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. Hagerstown probably hasn't been to the playoffs in quite some time. The All-Star game for the SAL is a little over a month from now and during the break would be a perfect time for him to move. Hood, Ramirez, Perez aren't standing in Harpers way but they need at bats as well and Potomac is not challenging for the 1st half division crown. At this point I just don't see the rush to move him he's on a good timeline to make the majors mid/late 2012. But if he continues to hit .500 over the next week or two then yes I agree it is time for him to move on.

[imref]

2-4 tonight, 2Ks.

up to .376

[welch]

My wishful agenda is that I want to see Harper play for Washington in September. Reasoned agenda is that he is far above the low-A guys, and most likely far better than anyone in high-A. He can learn defense in Harrisburg, and might improve his hitting if he had pitchers who could challenge him more.

[NeedaNewNick]

like everyone else in the league, his arb clock starts when he's on the 25 man, not the 40 man, plus nearly two thirds of his contract is signing bonus

they risk owing him more if he gets called up before the 2012 Super 2 deadline, do you really think Boras would agree to a deal where his client hits the cover off the ball in 2015, but only makes $1 million?

http://blog.prorumors.com/2011/03/rumors/bryce-harper-sent-to-minor-league-camp/
http://www.natsinsider.com/2010/08/harpers-path-to-majors.html

[NatsDad14]

like everyone else in the league, his arb clock starts when he's on the 25 man, not the 40 man, plus nearly two thirds of his contract is signing bonus

they risk owing him more if he gets called up before the 2012 Super 2 deadline, do you really think Boras would agree to a deal where his client hits the cover off the ball in 2015, but only makes $1 million?

http://blog.prorumors.com/2011/03/rumors/bryce-harper-sent-to-minor-league-camp/
http://www.natsinsider.com/2010/08/harpers-path-to-majors.html

Boras already agreed to that deal. Let's say Harper starts next season on OD.

2012: 500K
2013: 750K
2014: 900K
2015: 1M (first arb year)

He wouldn't reach Arbitration until 2016 because he already agreed to 1 million in 2015 no matter what. The only way he reaches arbitration is if he comes up mid-2012 after the super 2 deadline so that his 3 years are half of 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015. That makes his first arbitration year in 2016. At his current pace, I'm not sure if he reaches arbitration for the first time in 2016.

[NJ Ave]

Actually, if he was on the opening day roster next year, he would be a super 2, so it would go (I think):

2012: 500K
2013: 750K
2014: 900K (first arb year)
2015: 1M (second arb year)
2016: ?? (third arb year)
2017: ?? (fourth arb year)
2018: Free Agency

After 6 years of service time, you're automatically a free agent if you don't have a contract.