Tex and the Nats...

[tomterp]

Sounds right to me if you think about it. There is absolutely no reason for Teixeira to want to come here unless all he cares about is the cash which I doubt is the case.

It is not the only factor.  He has also said he wants to be close to his family, who reside in Severna Park, which is NOT a suburb of Boston.

[natsfan4evr]

What about 1 through 3?  I want to see the odds.

Here's how I'd assess the Teixeira competitors...

1. Red Sox. Boston absolutely loves Teixeira, a young, powerful switch hitter who'd fit nicely into the lineup and bolster it enough where they wouldn't have to worry about some natural slippage off career years by Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis and even continued slippage by the great David Ortiz. They could easily move the versatile Youkilis to third base (though they'd then have to find a taker later for Mike Lowell). Boston's on the right coast, and no one has won more than them in recent years. The Red Sox also have extra incentive because, unlike the other losers in this derby, they can't and won't turn to Manny Ramirez as a superstar fallback option. One caveat: They aren't a team to go nuts on the price (excepting a posting price, that is): "We're drawing a line in the sand,'' one Red Sox person said. However, about half of baseball thinks their line will be high enough. Odds to sign Teixeira: Even money.

2. Angels. Owner Arte Moreno has made clear to SI (and everyone else, really) his great desire to return Teixeira to the Angels' otherwise limp lineup. "Teixeira's my guy,'' Moreno told me at the winter meetings. "We love him, and we covet him,'' one other Angels person said of Teixeira. But while Moreno is one of baseball's very best owners, he hasn't been one to go crazy on player contracts (excepting the mistake that was Gary Matthews Jr.). Moreno also has reminded different people in the past that he paid only $180 million for the whole team. So to beat that number for one first baseman would be a mild surprise. Odds: 3-1.

3. Yankees. The Yankees seem to feel that as the team that's closest to Teixeira's home Baltimore-Washington area without actually being Baltimore or Washington, they would have an excellent chance if they're willing to commit themselves to the pursuit. But the Yankees appear to be dipping in and out on Tex. They've spent nearly a quarter of a billion dollars already, some Yankees people might even like Manny almost as much (Hank the Yank is one of those people), they may hesitate going long for a first baseman after the bloated $120 million Jason Giambi contract that finally expired, and they may need to use the position to house Jorge Posada at times. The Yankees may also not want to seem too piggish, because word now is that they'll hesitate if the number goes past $180 million. Odds: 6-1.

4. Nationals. Word is, owner Ted Lerner, who's 83 and a multibillionaire, very much impressed Teixeira. Translation: They may be offering the moon. But even so, the Nats are a long way from winning. And no one watches them. Odds: 15-1.

5. Orioles. There have been a lot of funny rumors lately, many of them connected to the O's. One had Teixeira spending the day at a Ravens game with O's owner Peter Angelos. If that happened there's no reason to think that would help, anyway. Angelos has been pining for Teixeira forever, but they are believed to be running behind in the bidding, anyway. Beyond the money issue, how does a player in search of a decade-long deal sign up to play for a team that hasn't won in over a decade? Odds: 25-1.

[sportsfan882]

It is not the only factor.  He has also said he wants to be close to his family, who reside in Severna Park, which is NOT a suburb of Boston.

I think he would rather go to the big spotlight in Boston and to be on a team that will compete for a Championship every season for the foreseeable future.

We just are not an appealing target for free agents at this point. Maybe we will be in a few years.

[blue911]

It is not the only factor.  He has also said he wants to be close to his family, who reside in Severna Park, which is NOT a suburb of Boston.

Ever since Millhousen's Tavern was turned into some Irish restaurant (Not even a bar) SP has gone straight down hill.

[wpa2629]

He won't come here because he won't want to spend the next 10 years listening to all the media trolls remind him that he went to non-media approved destination -- it wouldn't even matter if we won 5 World Series with him -- they'll dog him his whole career and call him a dope ... I'm so sick of the elitist snobbery in baseball -- it's just a joke

[natsfan4evr]

He won't come here because he won't want to spend the next 10 years listening to all the media trolls remind him that he went to non-media approved destination -- it wouldn't even matter if we won 5 World Series with him -- they'll dog him his whole career and call him a dope ... I'm so sick of the elitist snobbery in baseball -- it's just a joke

Even if we don't get him. If we really went 200 million, I see Dunn and Hudson taking us extremely seriously.

[HalfSmokes]

I think he would rather go to the big spotlight in Boston and to be on a team that will compete for a Championship every season for the foreseeable future.

We just are not an appealing target for free agents at this point. Maybe we will be in a few years.

Not everone wants the microscope/spotlight. Here (or Baltimore) and he is a savior and people defend him even if he starts to suck (which every player does when they age). If he signs a ten year deal with Boston, he'll probably be getting boos in year 10. Not to mention Boston now has a blanket policy of not granting no trades- in three or four years, there is no guarentee Theo won't eat part of the contract and flip him to the Pirates.

[hammondsnats]

We just are not an appealing target for free agents at this point. Maybe we will be in a few years.

Sad thing is I don't really see a Teixeira available in a few years (a proven switch hitting slugger who can help lift this franchise).  Right now is a critical time for the Nats to make a move to ensure the fan base and the team that they care about winning. 

[wpa2629]

Even if we don't get him. If we really went 200 million, I see Dunn and Hudson taking us extremely seriously.

Very true ... if everything we've read and heard about this negotiation is true- I'm quite happy with the effort the FO made and I'm confident if we don't get Tex, we'll get a solid plan B -- and I'm even more confident now that we'lll sign Strasburg -- as much as I'd love to have Tex here -- I'm starting to feel pretty good about the direction of our club ...

[sportsfan882]

Sad thing is I don't really see a Teixeira available in a few years (a proven switch hitting slugger who can help lift this franchise).  Right now is a critical time for the Nats to make a move to ensure the fan base and the team that they care about winning. 

It's not in the Nats' hands at this point. It's on Teixeira and there is no chance he would want to come play here at this stage in our development.

I'll give the Lerners the benefit of the doubt on this one. They did well. I just want him to sign already so we can move on to more attainable players.

[HalfSmokes]

It's not in the Nats' hands at this point. It's on Teixeira and there is no chance he would want to come play here at this stage in our development.

I'm just wondering if you have ever spent time in Boston during the baseball season? Its not an atmosphere everyone would like to play in.

[tomterp]

So here's what we got.  I've expressed the odds in % terms:

Boston - 50%
Angels - 33.3%
Yankees - 16.7%
Nats - 6.7%
O's - 4%

Total odds - 110.7 %. 

So, the odds are over 110% that Teixeira will sign with one of those teams.  Brilliant.   

I have to say that if you could get these odds in Vegas, you could make a killing by covering all bets, cause the house will be paying out more than they take in.

[DPMOmaha]

Man, having to settle for Dunn and Hudson, here's what it's going to feel like.  

You've been driving a 1993 Ford Escort.  It's been ok, gets you from point A to point B but no one really pays any attention to you.  You just blend in, though sometimes you do get a couple of heads turned in when you're pulled over on the side of the road.  You get a new job and a promotion so you decide to get rid of that car and drive something a little more reliable.  You'd always planned on getting something nicer before too much longer but now it's time.  You do your shopping and after hours and hours of research you find that, ya know, I think I can afford that BMW, just a 5 series, not going to go too crazy.  You've crunched all the numbers and, yep, it looks like you'll be able to afford it.  You go to the dealership, go for the test drive, you've slept on it and you decide to go for it.  You're just about to sign the loan papers when another loan officer comes in and says they just got a call from the bank and you're can still do it but the can't give you the same intrest rate they thought they'd be able to and it's just too much.  You settle on a Ford Focus instead, it's nice enough, it's got cruise control, intermittent wipers, plenty of cup holders and that new car smell, but it's still a disappointment because you practically had that BMW.  It was yours and you still ended up driving something else.  If you had just gone for the Focus in the first place you'd be perfectly content, but now, it's a bit of a let down.

[natsfan4evr]

Man, having to settle for Dunn and Hudson, here's what it's going to feel like.  

You've been driving a 1993 Ford Escort.  It's been ok, gets you from point A to point B but no one really pays any attention to you.  You just blend in, though sometimes you do get a couple of heads turned in when you're pulled over on the side of the road.  You get a new job and a promotion so you decide to get rid of that car and drive something a little more reliable.  You'd always planned on getting something nicer before too much longer but now it's time.  You do your shopping and after hours and hours of research you find that, ya know, I think I can afford that BMW, just a 5 series, not going to go too crazy.  You've crunched all the numbers and, yep, it looks like you'll be able to afford it.  You go to the dealership, go for the test drive, you've slept on it and you decide to go for it.  You're just about to sign the loan papers when another loan officer comes in and says they just got a call from the bank and you're can still do it but the can't give you the same intrest rate they thought they'd be able to and it's just too much.  You settle on a Ford Focus instead, it's nice enough, it's got cruise control, intermittent wipers, plenty of cup holders and that new car smell, but it's still a disappointment because you practically had that BMW.  It was yours and you still ended up driving something else.  If you had just gone for the Focus in the first place you'd be perfectly content, but now, it's a bit of a let down.

I disagree
Dunn and Hudson would provide an upgrade at 1st and 2nd, not just 1st.
I actually think Dunn and Hudson make more sense.

[DPMOmaha]

I disagree
Dunn and Hudson would provide an upgrade at 1st and 2nd, not just 1st.
I actually think Dunn and Hudson make more sense.

Right, actually, I kinda do too, but once you've been that close to something better (and I think getting Tex, while only at one position actually would improve all positions on the infield when you consider how well he plays defense) and you have to end up with something that is better than you had before and might even make a little more sense for your situation, it's still a bit of a let down.

[Natskins]

Right, actually, I kinda do too, but once you've been that close to something better (and I think getting Tex, while only at one position actually would improve all positions on the infield when you consider how well he plays defense) and you have to end up with something that is better than you had before and might even make a little more sense for your situation, it's still a bit of a let down.

I know what you mean. Once you've envisioned Tex in a Nats uniform, it's hard to get real excited about the other guys...even if signing them makes complete sense.

Plus there's the "upset" factor. With everyone already penciling him into a Sox uni, it would be just hilarious to upset the apple cart and shock the baseball world.

[PatsNats28]

I actually think the Angels may be his best location. I say this because LA isn't in the baseball spotlight, but they've got a good club... I don't think he'll sign with the Sox cuz of the no-trade/opt-out issues which Epstein won't agree to. Nats/Os suck, no way around it... But at this point, I won't be surprised by anything.

[hammondsnats]

I don't understand how Dunn doesn't enjoy playing baseball?  I'm kinda ticked he said that because it's always going to be in the back of my mind. 

He can hit dingers and let's face it, that's our biggest need.  He has a pretty good OBP and can drive in runs.  Now he strikes out a lot and isn't a great first baseman, but he's that middle of the order power slugger we're looking for.  You can count on him being in the line-up ... unlike NJ (hello DL after three weeks) or Meat Hook (hello weight problems). 

Teix is the complete package.  Solid all around hitter, great glove, positive image, young, hometown kid ... I can keep it going.

Teix is plan A, Dunn/Hudson is plan B.  Either way I'm happy just as long as we spend dough and add someone who can hit more than 14 homers and don't have to rely on Kearns/WMP as an everday outfielder or NJ/Meat Hook as everyday 1B. 

[PANatsFan]

I'm just wondering if you have ever spent time in Boston during the baseball season? Its not an atmosphere everyone would like to play in.

It's all of New England - it's a sea of Sox hats on dudes headed out to Dunkin' Donuts.

[PANatsFan]

I don't understand how Dunn doesn't enjoy playing baseball?  I'm kinda ticked he said that because it's always going to be in the back of my mind. 

He can hit dingers and let's face it, that's our biggest need.  He has a pretty good OBP and can drive in runs.  Now he strikes out a lot and isn't a great first baseman, but he's that middle of the order power slugger we're looking for.  You can count on him being in the line-up ... unlike NJ (hello DL after three weeks) or Meat Hook (hello weight problems). 

Teix is the complete package.  Solid all around hitter, great glove, positive image, young, hometown kid ... I can keep it going.

Teix is plan A, Dunn/Hudson is plan B.  Either way I'm happy just as long as we spend dough and add someone who can hit more than 14 homers and don't have to rely on Kearns/WMP as an everday outfielder or NJ/Meat Hook as everyday 1B. 

strikeouts+high OBP= not a big deal

trust me

groundouts are much much much much much worse

he wears pitchers out like you wouldn't believe

like a giant Wilkerson who doesn't suck

[hammondsnats]

strikeouts+high OBP= not a big deal

trust me

groundouts are much much much much much worse

he wears pitchers out like you wouldn't believe

like a giant Wilkerson who doesn't suck

I'm not saying I'm going to kill myself if we have to rely on Plan B, I've been a fellow Dunn supporter for years now.  It's just Teix is on a whole other level.

[PANatsFan]

I'm not saying I'm going to kill myself if we have to rely on Plan B, I've been a fellow Dunn supporter for years now.  It's just Teix is on a whole other level.

That's fine. But the strikeout stat is MEANINGLESS.

[wpa2629]

Just decide already damnit!

[Natskins]

I don't understand how Dunn doesn't enjoy playing baseball?  I'm kinda ticked he said that because it's always going to be in the back of my mind. 

Yeah, that sure makes him sound like a real prick. It's kinda like Donald Trump saying something like "Ya know, I get really tired of tripping over all these wads of cash I have lying around the house all the time."

How many people DREAM of playing baseball for a living?

[PANatsFan]

Yeah, that sure makes him sound like a real prick. It's kinda like Donald Trump saying something like "Ya know, I get really tired of tripping over all these wads of cash I have lying around the house all the time."

How many people DREAM of playing baseball for a living?

I believe it was a fake quote made up by the GM of the Jays because Dunn said he didn't want to play in Canada. I'll have to find the article when I have more time, but I recall Dunn ripping the guy a new one over it.