Hijacked Thread - Craps odds & Blackjack Card Counting

[GburgNatsFan]

I'd take a little exception to the idea that they are a complete crap shoot... it seems like teams that win are often teams that can get the ball past the infield on pitches that maybe they shouldn't have been able to hit.

The Nats don't do that well.  But Stras in the pen isn't going to make up for that.

Who knows?  Baseball playoffs are a complete crap shoot.

[Count Walewski]

I'd take a little exception to the idea that they are a complete crap shoot... it seems like teams that win are often teams that can get the ball past the infield on pitches that maybe they shouldn't have been able to hit.

The Nats don't do that well.  But Stras in the pen isn't going to make up for that.

As somebody who actually plays craps (which the hardcore sabermetric crowd would never do, given that it is a negative EV game), I feel obliged to point out that while the outcome of any single crapshot cannot be predicted and might be something crazy, some numbers are significantly more likely to be rolled than others.

I feel that actually makes crapshot a decent analogy for the playoffs. You know that a 7, 6, or 8 (like, say, the Cubs this year) are more likely to get rolled than an 11 or 12 (say, the 2003 Marlins), but the 11 or 12 sometimes get rolled and people who bet on it win big.

[GburgNatsFan]

Huh. Didn't think about that: a crap shoot isn't random.

As somebody who actually plays craps (which the hardcore sabermetric crowd would never do, given that it is a negative EV game), I feel obliged to point out that while the outcome of any single crapshot cannot be predicted and might be something crazy, some numbers are significantly more likely to be rolled than others.

I feel that actually makes crapshot a decent analogy for the playoffs. You know that a 7, 6, or 8 (like, say, the Cubs this year) are more likely to get rolled than an 11 or 12 (say, the 2003 Marlins), but the 11 or 12 sometimes get rolled and people who bet on it win big.

[whytev]

Huh. Didn't think about that: a crap shoot isn't random.

It is, but the odds are not equally distributed.

[tomterp]

As somebody who actually plays craps (which the hardcore sabermetric crowd would never do, given that it is a negative EV game),

Craps is one of the best games to play, if you pretty much only bet on "don't pass".

[HattoriHanzo]

Craps is one of the best games to play, if you pretty much only bet on "don't pass".

That's frowned upon in vegas. Sure you can do it, but people will start yelling at you to leave the table. I've seen it happen several times and people get pissed thinking you're screwing with their rolls.

[Optics]

I've actually never played craps. More of a Blackjack guy myself. Actually almost got kicked out of a casino in Atlantic City once for card counting.

[whytev]

I've actually never played craps. More of a Blackjack guy myself. Actually almost got kicked out of a casino in Atlantic City once for card counting.

I don't understand card counting. Everyone knows what's in the deck. Everyone knows what's been played. How can there be a rule against acknowledging these realities? Like, if they really don't want card counting, shuffle the whole freaking deck every hand. That's like ejecting your manager for knowing how many outs there are.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't understand card counting. Everyone knows what's in the deck. Everyone knows what's been played. How can there be a rule against acknowledging these realities? Like, if they really don't want card counting, shuffle the whole freaking deck every hand. That's like ejecting your manager for knowing how many outs there are.

It's one thing to remember recent cards in a 52 card deck.  It takes some professional cheating to count cards meaningfully into a multi-deck shoe.  You can realistically shuffle a multi-deck shoe after every hand.  Also, I don't know, but I'm guessing shuffling is an opportunity for a dealer to cheat against the house, so I imagine they watch shuffles and don't like to do it too often.

[whytev]

It's one thing to remember recent cards in a 52 card deck.  It takes some professional cheating to count cards meaningfully into a multi-deck shoe.  You can realistically shuffle a multi-deck shoe after every hand.  Also, I don't know, but I'm guessing shuffling is an opportunity for a dealer to cheat against the house, so I imagine they watch shuffles and don't like to do it too often.

If you're rain man and you can remember all the cards in a bunch of decks, you've earned the money as far as I'm concerned.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If you're rain man and you can remember all the cards in a bunch of decks, you've earned the money as far as I'm concerned.

I think they suspect that there are no rain men and that everyone uses spy equipment and coordinates.

[tomterp]

That's frowned upon in vegas. Sure you can do it, but people will start yelling at you to leave the table. I've seen it happen several times and people get pissed thinking you're screwing with their rolls.

Damn jinx fairy believers. 

[Count Walewski]

That's frowned upon in vegas. Sure you can do it, but people will start yelling at you to leave the table. I've seen it happen several times and people get pissed thinking you're screwing with their rolls.

The real problem with betting the no pass line isn't that other people yell at you (I've never had that happen to me, but I hear it does happen), the problem is that craps becomes a very boring, slow-paced game if you do it. And you make money very slowly.

One of the things about craps is that the safe bets are relatively boring - even betting the pass line (the second best bet you can make in most casinos) is boring compared to all the dumb, exciting, one-roll bets you could be making.

[Slateman]

Peyton did stem cell therapy of some sort. You can't do that so much here because innocent babies.

You can  in Europe. They don't care about innocent babies. Unless gunz.

[bk1998]

That's frowned upon in vegas. Sure you can do it, but people will start yelling at you to leave the table. I've seen it happen several times and people get pissed thinking you're screwing with their rolls.

But oh my, oh my, is it fun when you get an entire table playing the don't.

I was in a late night game at the Borgata once where all six of us were all playing the wrong way.  Testing every jinx in the book.  Talking about seven as much as possible, Snow White and the *throw the dice* SEVEN dwarfs, setting sail on the *throw the dice* SEVEN seas, requesting new dice for craps and grins, throwing at bets on the table... all kinds of ridiculously fun stuff given the normally stuffy atmosphere at the table.

Still lost my ass, but it was very enjoyable at least.

[rbw5t]

If you're rain man and you can remember all the cards in a bunch of decks, you've earned the money as far as I'm concerned.

You don't remember the actual cards played -- you're just keeping a running relative total of high cards vs low cards that have come out.  So, it's not really very hard, but it does require constant attention and takes the some of the fun out of playing.  The power isn't in knowing how to play your hand -- strategy, i.e., whether to hit, stay, split, double down, etc, stays almost exactly the same regardless of the count.  The power is that the players' odds increase when there are more high cards remaining to be played, i.e., when a disproportionately high percentage of low cards have already been played.  The goal isn't to change how you play, it's to change how you bet.  When the deck is "good", you bet 10 times as much as when it isn't, which is why it's so easy to spot a card counter.  A six deck shoe is no harder to count into than a two deck shoe, but the information is less useful, because having 5 "too many" low cards is meaningful halfway through 2 decks, but much less so halfway through 6 decks.  So, there's no need to "cheat" to count cards, you just have to have a high capacity for mindnumbing boredom.  The teams that made a lot of money counting cards (and they were cheating because it's an individual game) have one person just counting and betting the table minimum, and if and when the deck gets good, he signals a new player to come to the table making big bets.  That pattern was much harder for casinos to identify, and so it was successful for a long time until they caught on to where the losses were coming from.  They almost never kick out an individual gambler even when it's obvious he thinks he's counting cards.  Atlantic City is famous for kicking out, or otherwise hassling, players who are on a winning streak, just to break their "mojo".  The science there seems dubious to me, as I think they'd prefer to let you feel hot and slowly lose back the money, which will happen of course.  Vegas tends to let things just shake out, as long as they feel sure you aren't really cheating (e.g., through team play, using a device, etc.).

[whytev]

You don't remember the actual cards played -- you're just keeping a running relative total of high cards vs low cards that have come out.  So, it's not really very hard, but it does require constant attention and takes the some of the fun out of playing.  The power isn't in knowing how to play your hand -- strategy, i.e., whether to hit, stay, split, double down, etc, stays almost exactly the same regardless of the count.  The power is that the players' odds increase when there are more high cards remaining to be played, i.e., when a disproportionately high percentage of low cards have already been played.  The goal isn't to change how you play, it's to change how you bet.  When the deck is "good", you bet 10 times as much as when it isn't, which is why it's so easy to spot a card counter.  A six deck shoe is no harder to count into than a two deck shoe, but the information is less useful, because having 5 "too many" low cards is meaningful halfway through 2 decks, but much less so halfway through 6 decks.  So, there's no need to "cheat" to count cards, you just have to have a high capacity for mindnumbing boredom.  The teams that made a lot of money counting cards (and they were cheating because it's an individual game) have one person just counting and betting the table minimum, and if and when the deck gets good, he signals a new player to come to the table making big bets.  That pattern was much harder for casinos to identify, and so it was successful for a long time until they caught on to where the losses were coming from.  They almost never kick out an individual gambler even when it's obvious he thinks he's counting cards.  Atlantic City is famous for kicking out, or otherwise hassling, players who are on a winning streak, just to break their "mojo".  The science there seems dubious to me, as I think they'd prefer to let you feel hot and slowly lose back the money, which will happen of course.  Vegas tends to let things just shake out, as long as they feel sure you aren't really cheating (e.g., through team play, using a device, etc.).

So they accuse you if you bet inconsistently, not so much based upon how you play? Interesting.

[Natsinpwc]

You don't remember the actual cards played -- you're just keeping a running relative total of high cards vs low cards that have come out.  So, it's not really very hard, but it does require constant attention and takes the some of the fun out of playing.  The power isn't in knowing how to play your hand -- strategy, i.e., whether to hit, stay, split, double down, etc, stays almost exactly the same regardless of the count.  The power is that the players' odds increase when there are more high cards remaining to be played, i.e., when a disproportionately high percentage of low cards have already been played.  The goal isn't to change how you play, it's to change how you bet.  When the deck is "good", you bet 10 times as much as when it isn't, which is why it's so easy to spot a card counter.  A six deck shoe is no harder to count into than a two deck shoe, but the information is less useful, because having 5 "too many" low cards is meaningful halfway through 2 decks, but much less so halfway through 6 decks.  So, there's no need to "cheat" to count cards, you just have to have a high capacity for mindnumbing boredom.  The teams that made a lot of money counting cards (and they were cheating because it's an individual game) have one person just counting and betting the table minimum, and if and when the deck gets good, he signals a new player to come to the table making big bets.  That pattern was much harder for casinos to identify, and so it was successful for a long time until they caught on to where the losses were coming from.  They almost never kick out an individual gambler even when it's obvious he thinks he's counting cards.  Atlantic City is famous for kicking out, or otherwise hassling, players who are on a winning streak, just to break their "mojo".  The science there seems dubious to me, as I think they'd prefer to let you feel hot and slowly lose back the money, which will happen of course.  Vegas tends to let things just shake out, as long as they feel sure you aren't really cheating (e.g., through team play, using a device, etc.).

Isn't it easier to count in Vegas since there are fewer decks?

[rbw5t]

Sorry, I agree, way too off topic.  I just saw people misunderstanding how it works and thought a few sentences were worth the trouble.  Back to baseball, which is way more fun than card counting!

[Count Walewski]

Card counting sounds easy but doing it at real speed is very different from reading about how to do it.

I have a buddy who has a PhD from CalTech and at one point in his life was practicing card counting every day. He never was able to do it fast enough to win money at a casino. Of course, I also have a few friends who are able to do it despite being merely BS holders from VA Tech, but the point is there are skills to it beyond just being good at math and understanding the theory behind it.

[Optics]

Card counting sounds easy but doing it at real speed is very different from reading about how to do it.

I have a buddy who has a PhD from CalTech and at one point in his life was practicing card counting every day. He never was able to do it fast enough to win money at a casino. Of course, I also have a few friends who are able to do it despite being merely BS holders from VA Tech, but the point is there are skills to it beyond just being good at math and understanding the theory behind it.

The key is to scout out slow dealers and try to find them dealing full or near full tables so hands are dealt at a pace that's easier to deal with. That's what me and my buddies would do.

Our general rule of thumb was to find old people as they tended to deal a LOT slower and they also spent more time small talking between hands. Avoid asians as they deal lightning quick.