It doesn't quite balance out. With a runner on 1st or nobody on, a walk is as good as a hit (the risk of getting gunned down at 3rd trying to advance from first certainly balances out the slight advantage of runners at the corners vs. runners on 1st & 2nd). With a runner on 2nd, I'd say the risks of an out at the plate or a runner getting hit by a batted ball don't quite outweigh the gain of scoring from 2nd or having a runner who can score on a sac fly if he only advances to 3rd. With a runner on 3rd, there's no contest that scoring from 3rd is better than still standing there. Runners on 2nd and 3rd is just like adding runner on 2nd + runner on 3rd - i.e. you'd rather have a single than a walk. Bases loaded, yeah, I'd rather have the walk (no chance of an out, psychologically bad for the pitcher). So in the final analysis, I'm going to stand by my original statement that a walk is not quite as as good as a hit. I also should have mentioned in that with a runner on 3rd, a walk might not even be as good as an out, given the possibility of an RBI on a sac fly or a ground out.
A walk may be as good as a hit. But until a bases load walk = grand slam, then Hit > Walk.
