Gray - The Next Episode - 2023

[JCA-CrystalCity]

sweeper.  Interesting.

[Slateman]

New pitch. Starting throwing a sweeper.

Its interesting to note that he lost some of last season's horizontal movement on his slider. It already had quite a bit of downard movement, but he's gone from 1.6 inches of horizontal movement to 0.9. Im wondering if his cutter and slider were becoming blended, and because of this, he couldnt use it to get swings like he did last year.

Im okay with him ditching the cutter and replacing it with the sweeper. It plays off his fastball better.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Perhaps some of the decrease in the horizontal movement of his slider is due to focusing on finishing more square to the hitter. His delivery has less of a side to side whip action, or at least that was what articles on his off-season work suggested he was trying to do.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/06/15/josiah-gray-sweeper/

discusses the sweeper he's adding.

Gray, who allowed four runs in Washington’s 5-4 loss to Houston, threw 26 against the Astros on Wednesday, and the results were encouraging — eight balls and eighteen strikes. He got four whiffs on 13 swings. And six balls that were put in play ended in an out.

“I wouldn’t say it’s as polished yet, but I think I threw 20 or so today,” Gray said Wednesday. “Got some good takes. Got some swing and misses. Got some soft contact. So the results are there. But just like anything, just like the cutter, it’s got to be reps. We’ll get to a point where I’m throwing that pitch in every count. Just continuing to work with it and I’m really excited with where it was at today.”

[Natsinpwc]

Any reason  he is not showing as staring tonight? Nats not yet showing any pitchers for the series.

[Slateman]

Any reason  he is not showing as staring tonight? Nats not yet showing any pitchers for the series.

They called up Ferrer with no corresponding move, so whoever inputs that is probably waiting for official word from the Nats

Assuming he goes tonight, I wonder if there is anyway to skip him on what would be his July 5 start and give him a nice long break to tinker/refine his sweeper.

[Natsinpwc]

They called up Ferrer with no corresponding move, so whoever inputs that is probably waiting for official word from the Nats

Assuming he goes tonight, I wonder if there is anyway to skip him on what would be his July 5 start and give him a nice long break to tinker/refine his sweeper.

Yes. Rest him for a bit and then Gore later on. At some point Williams could use a rest also. Didn’t throw many innings last year. Is Rutledge ready?  Anyone else?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/07/03/josiah-gray-nationals-rebuild-all-star-game/

Since he debuted with the Nationals, he’s watched Ruiz, Abrams, Gore and Cade Cavalli have their moments. Jackson Rutledge, James Wood or Robert Hassell III could be next. But Gray really struggled last season, finishing with the most home runs and walks allowed in the National League. His ERA settled at 5.02. His adjusted ERA was 22 points below league average. Beyond selling long-term hopes, he had to figure it out.
...
A tinkerer, Gray added a sinker last August, then a cutter in the offseason, then a sweeping slider in recent weeks, expanding an arsenal that once revolved around his four-seam fastball and two breaking balls. After that four-seam fastball was absolutely hammered in 2022, he knew changes were needed. He visited Driveline, a cutting-edge performance facility, over the winter. During spring training, he would throw pitches in the bullpen and immediately ask the video staff for feedback. And with one start left in the first half, Gray has a 3.30 ERA in 17 appearances. He’s yielded just one home run on his fastball, far off the pace of the 24 opponents smacked last year.

“When I got up here in 2021, I was so hellbent on my fastball [being] an elite pitch that got me to the big leagues,” Gray explained. “But it was getting hit all over the park. So it kind of took me a second to adapt to that … and going into this past offseason I said, ‘You know what? If I can throw these certain pitches in certain counts, I can be that much of a better pitcher.’

[Natsinpwc]

His delivery is exactly the same. So basically the big plan to fix the 5+ ERA starting pitcher is for him to learn a new pitch in ST. Awesome.

Well Slate was right again. It has been awesome so far this year!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

the article discusses how he's modeling himself after pitchers like Yu, Musgrove, and Bassitt who throw tons of different pitches to keep hitters guessing.

[Slateman]

Well Slate was right again. It has been awesome so far this year!

1.4 WHIP and 4.57 WHIP. Guess we'll see how well his luck holds in the second half.

Really would be nice if the organization could actually develop pitchers, rather than leaving them to their own devices and hoping for the best

[nobleisthyname]

1.4 WHIP and 4.57 WHIP. Guess we'll see how well his luck holds in the second half.

Shift is eliminated this year. I don't buy luck as an excuse 

[Slateman]

the article discusses how he's modeling himself after pitchers like Yu, Musgrove, and Bassitt who throw tons of different pitches to keep hitters guessing.

Can he model himself after Darvish and Musgrove sitting 95 with a good fastball? Cus that would solve all his problems

[Slateman]

Shift is eliminated this year. I don't buy luck as an excuse 

Exactly

[Natsinpwc]

His FIP has been consistently at least half a run higher than his ERA since he has been in MLB.  And this year his FIP is about 1.3 runs lower than it was last year. So I see improvement. If some don’t want to see that it’s ok.

Also not sure how anyone concludes based on that article that he is working on adding pitches on his own. I also don’t see how the Nats are responsible for his development.  He spent his minor league time with the Dodgers. Maybe he was just overhyped as a prospect because of the Dodgers reputation.

[Natsinpwc]

Let me add that Gray has gone from 2.1 HR/9 in 2021 and 2.3 last year to 1.1 this year.  Is that luck?  FIP is good to look at but it’s just one metric and not perfect. Don’t ignore the others.

[Natsinpwc]

Continuing his lucky season!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

there was discussion in the GDT whether it is time to shut down Gray because of his lagging performance in August. It was also pointed out he hasn't matched last year's inning total. I suggested that it would be interesting to compare his early season form to lately. A focus in last off-season was on getting him to throw and finish more straight to the plate rather than side-to-side.

Davey calls the problem related to opening up too soon and not finishing properly rather than getting tired. I would think a skipped turn and more bullpen sessions might help.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/28/nationals-blue-jays-josiah-gray/

Gray’s mechanics have been a point of emphasis with coaches working with him to finish more in line with the plate. When Gray has struggled, he opens up his body too soon and misses off the plate to his arm side. Gray also lands on the side of his plant foot when he pitches, making his margin for error slimmer.
...
“He was just flying open really bad, couldn’t stay behind the ball, pushing a lot of balls,” Martinez said. “His misses were way off. We’ll talk to him. We’ll look at some film, try to get him straightened out before his next start.”

I would still think there's only so much work you can do when you are taking regular turns. There's a couple of off days next week, but Gray is due to pitch Sunday. I'd seriously think of skipping him or pushing him back and having him throw more bullpen sessions before his next start. It'd mean Gore on Sunday on 4 days rest. Perhaps Gore is doing so well on 5 days that you don't mess with that, but there's upside to fixing Gray.

[Natsinpwc]

Not a bad idea.  But aren’t other teaching their limits now? Rutledge time?

[Slateman]

Why wasnt this addressed in the offseason? Why was Gray left alone all offseason to develop a cutter when he had significant deficiencies with his delivery and fastball?

[Natsinpwc]

Why wasnt this addressed in the offseason? Why was Gray left alone all offseason to develop a cutter when he had significant deficiencies with his delivery and fastball?

Greta Garbo approach.

[catocony]

The off season is the off season.  Who was going to work with him, and where? 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Why wasnt this addressed in the offseason? Why was Gray left alone all offseason to develop a cutter when he had significant deficiencies with his delivery and fastball?

I think it was addressed, maybe on his own mostly, but the problem is he seems to be reverting to his old form, away from what he was doing earlier this year that had addressed the matter.

[Slateman]

The off season is the off season.  Who was going to work with him, and where? 

We have an entire training staff. On top of that, there are numerous third parties that do this for a living.

[imref]

Let me add that Gray has gone from 2.1 HR/9 in 2021 and 2.3 last year to 1.1 this year.  Is that luck?  FIP is good to look at but it’s just one metric and not perfect. Don’t ignore the others.

FIP is down almost a run this year, even with his recent struggles. And, he was an all-star in the first half of the season.

He's still young and this is only his second full year in the league. I'm not worried about him (yet).