Gray - The Next Episode - 2023

[JCA-CrystalCity]

FIP is down almost a run this year, even with his recent struggles. And, he was an all-star in the first half of the season.

He's still young and this is only his second full year in the league. I'm not worried about him (yet).

even with his FIP down, it's down to a bit under 5. That's still worrisome. The HR rate needed improve, and it was awful, but the BBs are still keeping him from being a reliable #3 or better starter. The ERA early in the year looks like a mirage to me.

[Natsinpwc]

Yea he needs much better control.  Was working early in the season but not now. Maybe Darnell Coles can help him! 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Golden notes:

Josiah Gray is scheduled to pitch Sunday, but Martinez hinted that could change. The manager said he will watch Gray’s bullpen session Friday to see how the right-hander looks before determining whether he will start. If Gray can’t go, Martinez said Washington would probably have a bullpen game Sunday. …

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/30/nationals-blue-jays-patrick-corbin/

[Slateman]

Can we skip him, make Rutledge the September call up, give him Sunday, then send him back down and call up Rainey?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Can we skip him, make Rutledge the September call up, give him Sunday, then send him back down and call up Rainey?

I don't think the "september call up" is limited to a particular player.  It's just an extra roster slot. I assume we can cycle players through it. IIRC, Rutledge is next due to pitch Friday, same slot as Irrvin. I'd imagine we could have him pitch Saturday and push back that day's start a day to Sunday without messing anyone up much.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/04/josiah-gray-jacob-young-nationals/

Article about Gray losing his cool over a first inning misplay by Young. Proceeded to walk the next 3 batters, then after the inning had words for Young. Dom Smith straightened him out, and Davey spoke about it after the game in his presser.

[Slateman]

Gray season finale tonight

[Slateman]

Last night was one of, if not the, best start of the season for Gray. His fastball and sinker popped. He was hitting 93-94 in the 6th inning. And he had decent control.

Need him to work on staying there during the offseason.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think we end the season not knowing the ceiling on Gray, but we have a good idea of the floor.

Given the number of innings and starts he's made the past couple of years, I think he's a rotation regular capable of a pretty high workload. It may say something about current philosophy on the use of starters, but while 159 innings will not qualify for the ERA title, it currently is 44th in MLB in terms of innings pitched and will likely end up somewhere in the top 45- 55 among starters. This comes after 148.2 IP last year, so, over 2 years, he's 39th in IP. Good number of starts this year - 30 starts with the 6 man rotation the last two months.

The ERA relative to his FIP and strand percentage may indicate that the ERA should be closer to 5 than the hair below 4 we got this year. The walks remain a problem to work on. Even with the drop in K% he's not really getting better at avoiding walks. As for what happened to the Ks he's not getting, it looks like they turned into grounders, as his  GB / FB ratio improved from 0.67 to 0.92.  With improved infield defense (thank you, Dom, Candy/Vargas, and CJ's range), the extra contact didn't kill him.

He gets away with the extra base runners and contact a bit by being tougher to barrel up than league average and, for the most part, being tough to hit homers given the number of flies he gives up. He had a big drop in HR/FB this year, almost in half (18.6% to 11.5%, MLB average 15.9%).

Overall, the guy seems to be at least a back of the rotation innings eater or maybe even a mid-rotation guy if the defense is solid in the infield and he maintains the below average home run rate and the improvement in getting grounders.  The next step I think would either be continued improvement in GB rate or a drop in the BBs. Do both and this guy is a #2 starter. Downside would be reversion to 2022 rates on HRs while maintaining a high walk rate. Then he's just a guy who can eat innings.

Frandsen I think has it nailed when he says keep in the lower part of the zone and throw the variety of pitches. This guy perhaps should aim for being a "crafty" pitcher.

[Natsinpwc]

Good analysis.

Progres Made but More Needs to Be Done. Title of many of my reports.

[nobleisthyname]

He gets away with the extra base runners and contact a bit by being tougher to barrel up than league average and, for the most part, being tough to hit homers given the number of flies he gives up. He had a big drop in HR/FB this year, almost in half (18.6% to 11.5%, MLB average 15.9%).

Great example for why xFIP exists, though it seems the pendulum swung too far the other way this season. SIERA also over 5 after being close to 4 last season. All else being equal he's probably a mid to high 4 ERA next season. Of course there's always hope he takes steps forward and improves even more.

[UMDNats]

I think we end the season not knowing the ceiling on Gray, but we have a good idea of the floor.

Given the number of innings and starts he's made the past couple of years, I think he's a rotation regular capable of a pretty high workload. It may say something about current philosophy on the use of starters, but while 159 innings will not qualify for the ERA title, it currently is 44th in MLB in terms of innings pitched and will likely end up somewhere in the top 45- 55 among starters. This comes after 148.2 IP last year, so, over 2 years, he's 39th in IP. Good number of starts this year - 30 starts with the 6 man rotation the last two months.

The ERA relative to his FIP and strand percentage may indicate that the ERA should be closer to 5 than the hair below 4 we got this year. The walks remain a problem to work on. Even with the drop in K% he's not really getting better at avoiding walks. As for what happened to the Ks he's not getting, it looks like they turned into grounders, as his  GB / FB ratio improved from 0.67 to 0.92.  With improved infield defense (thank you, Dom, Candy/Vargas, and CJ's range), the extra contact didn't kill him.

He gets away with the extra base runners and contact a bit by being tougher to barrel up than league average and, for the most part, being tough to hit homers given the number of flies he gives up. He had a big drop in HR/FB this year, almost in half (18.6% to 11.5%, MLB average 15.9%).

Overall, the guy seems to be at least a back of the rotation innings eater or maybe even a mid-rotation guy if the defense is solid in the infield and he maintains the below average home run rate and the improvement in getting grounders.  The next step I think would either be continued improvement in GB rate or a drop in the BBs. Do both and this guy is a #2 starter. Downside would be reversion to 2022 rates on HRs while maintaining a high walk rate. Then he's just a guy who can eat innings.

Frandsen I think has it nailed when he says keep in the lower part of the zone and throw the variety of pitches. This guy perhaps should aim for being a "crafty" pitcher.

Good breakdown. I think he's a rotation guy who can pop off a mid-3s ERA in the right conditions. 111 ERA+ for a 25-year-old pitcher is a really solid guy to have in your back pocket.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I like this quote:

“Tonight summed up the pitcher I can be,” Gray said. “Getting groundballs when I want, getting weak contact, minimizing damage, working around a walk or two, getting a strikeout in big spots. It’s the pitcher I know I can be. It’s a matter of being just consistent about it. This year was better than the last and was better than the year before that. Now next year I have to look at how I can get better.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/26/nationals-orioles-josiah-gray/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Great example for why xFIP exists, though it seems the pendulum swung too far the other way this season. SIERA also over 5 after being close to 4 last season. All else being equal he's probably a mid to high 4 ERA next season. Of course there's always hope he takes steps forward and improves even more.

he's unlikely to be a guy who is going to develop into a K machine, so it's maintaining weak contact and reducing BBs that are needed to beat the defense-independent ERA estimators (like SIERA and FIP). I'm really surprised at the home run change because every homer seemed to be greeted here as "it's old Gray showing up." Mid to upper 4s I'm guessing is what the projection systems will spit out.