Josiah Gray 2024 - Continuous Improvement?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Scherzer/Turner trade is turning out to be a complete bust at this rate. Have to really hope Ruiz learns how to catch.

Really a failure of scouting, tbh, not knowing the risks in both of the key players in the deal. The only thing I'd say about the deal is it made the Soto deal inevitable, and that is looking pretty promising in terms of a return. I don't recall the other packages that were offered for Scherzer or Scherzer/Turner. I think SD was supposed to have been in the bidding. You wonder what the team would have looked like if they had been able to lock up Turner and Soto.

[Natsinpwc]

Really a failure of scouting, tbh, not knowing the risks in both of the key players in the deal. The only thing I'd say about the deal is it made the Soto deal inevitable, and that is looking pretty promising in terms of a return. I don't recall the other packages that were offered for Scherzer or Scherzer/Turner. I think SD was supposed to have been in the bidding. You wonder what the team would have looked like if they had been able to lock up Turner and Soto.

Agree but they were both highly rated by all the experts.  Maybe some Dodger system bias. 

[IanRubbish]

Agree but they were both highly rated by all the experts.  Maybe some Dodger system bias.

It's Rizzo's job to assess the talent, not rely on others opinions.  Especially with his poor drafting, the org could not afford this trade to bust like it has.

[Natsinpwc]

It's Rizzo's job to assess the talent, not rely on others opinions.  Especially with his poor drafting, the org could not afford this trade to bust like it has.

Seems to have done better on the Soto.  Already two serviceable MLB players.  And one potential star in Wood.  Hassell and Susana still have a chance.  Same guy. The drafting did kill them though. 

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

At least it was a bust for both parties.  Kind of like buying Enron with crypto

The Scherzer/Turner trade is turning out to be a complete bust at this rate. Have to really hope Ruiz learns how to catch.

[imref]

Seems to have done better on the Soto.  Already two serviceable MLB players.  And one potential star in Wood.  Hassell and Susana still have a chance.  Same guy. The drafting did kill them though. 

Uh, CJ Abrams is a cornerstone player. Even we get nothing else from that trade, getting Abrams for a 2.5 years of Soto is a win.

[nobleisthyname]

At least it was a bust for both parties.  Kind of like buying Enron with crypto

Scherzer and Turner were very good for the Dodgers. I don't agree that anything short of a WS title is considered a bust for the team trading away prospects.

[Natsinpwc]

Uh, CJ Abrams is a cornerstone player. Even we get nothing else from that trade, getting Abrams for a 2.5 years of Soto is a win.

That feels like a loss.  Top MLB player for a decent player.  I don’t see any signs yet CJ will be a top MLB player. 

[welch]

Scherzer is fading out, at $45 million a year. Trea makes about $25 million until he is about 40: fair market value, but a bad deal for the Phillies. Or probably a bad deal for Trea's 35 - 40 year seasons, and risky for his age 31 - 35 seasons. That trade was not a terrible deal for the Nats, who could not sign Max to a rebuild, and could not sign Trea for the money they offered. Maybe they should have offered Trea more, and maybe Max would have agreed to stay.

However:

- Strasburg had signed out with the beginning of the injury that ended his career

- Schwarber had torn a hamstring, putting him on the IL for six weeks or so.

- Kieboom was in process of flopping a second season, hitting .207

- Robles, was expected to be a big star, but, like Kieboom, he was becoming a confirmed flop, hitting .203 with famous base-running blunders.

- Corbin was corbining for a second season

Rizzo had built a competitive team again, and they were roaring into June, when it felt apart. The Scherzer/Trea trade made sense.

[imref]

That feels like a loss.  Top MLB player for a decent player.  I don’t see any signs yet CJ will be a top MLB player. 

i'm bullish on CJ. I think he's an all-star this year and has 30 HR / 50 SB potential.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Scherzer is fading out, at $45 million a year. Trea makes about $25 million until he is about 40: fair market value, but a bad deal for the Phillies. Or probably a bad deal for Trea's 35 - 40 year seasons, and risky for his age 31 - 35 seasons. That trade was not a terrible deal for the Nats, who could not sign Max to a rebuild, and could not sign Trea for the money they offered. Maybe they should have offered Trea more, and maybe Max would have agreed to stay.

However:

- Strasburg had signed out with the beginning of the injury that ended his career

- Schwarber had torn a hamstring, putting him on the IL for six weeks or so.

- Kieboom was in process of flopping a second season, hitting .207

- Robles, was expected to be a big star, but, like Kieboom, he was becoming a confirmed flop, hitting .203 with famous base-running blunders.

- Corbin was corbining for a second season

Rizzo had built a competitive team again, and they were roaring into June, when it felt apart. The Scherzer/Trea trade made sense.

you can't factor in the deals that Scherzer and Turner got after their contracts expired when assessing the trade and what was known / knowable at the time. All that was known is the acquiring team would get Scherzer for 2 months and Turner for a season more, plus the comp pick to be had when Turner turns down arbitration at the end of his contract. The Nats also gave up on 2 comp picks had they retained both guys. Ruiz and Gray performed better than the value of those picks, but not by much.

all this being said, Ruiz hasn't been bad defensively so far this year. Perhaps the club's shift to having him and Adams catch with one knee down has helped him as a receiver. Really can't complain about his hitting so far, either. He's projected to be among the worst primary catchers this year, but he could beat that with a 2022-like season.

[Natsinpwc]

i'm bullish on CJ. I think he's an all-star this year and has 30 HR / 50 SB potential.

[imref]

I'm going to float the conspiracy theory that Corbin has given Gray some advice that is ruining Gray so Corbin's contract looks better.

[varoadking]

I don’t see any signs yet CJ will be a top MLB player.

You haven't missed anything...he hasn't shown any...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.talknats.com/2024/04/05/im-no-pitching-coach-but/

Stephen "Ghost" Mears at Talk Nats weighs in on Gray pitch variety. Notes that while Davey pitches establishing the 4 seam, it is just a lot less effective than other pitches he throws due to his poor command. Suggests focusing on the cutter, curve, slider, and sinker for his velocity pitch.  Get by more on deception by tunneling his pitches. consider ditching the sweeper, which seems to have impacted the shape of his curve and slider. Worth a read. I don't disagree with ditching the 4 seam or the changeup, which also is ineffective.