Josiah Gray 2024 - Continuous Improvement?

[Smithian]

I don’t think Hickey has the foggiest clue on how to help Gray improve.

I don't think Gray improved by himself last season, but it is certainly possible.

[Slateman]

Drop in K/9, increase in walks and WHIP. xERA and xFIP over 5

Are we sure he improved and didnt simply get lucky?

[Smithian]

Drop in K/9, increase in walks and WHIP. xERA and xFIP over 5

Are we sure he improved and didnt simply get lucky?

He pitched 160 innings, about 20 more than 2022. His ERA and FIP improved, even as his BABIP inched up a bit.

I acknowledge some of his advance metrics went the wrong way, but his fWAR went from -0.7 to 1.6. I don't know how WAR is calculated, but that must indicated some of his advanced stats popped. It's possible he had 160 lucky innings, but I choose to believe an age 25 pitcher in his second full season simply got a bit better. And I have hope an age 26 pitcher can get even better in his third season, even if his ZiPS is not encouraging.

[varoadking]

I don't think Gray improved by himself last season, but it is certainly possible.

He was actually quoted as saying as much...

[blue911]

He was actually quoted as saying as much...

I think he goes to a performance training facility in the off season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think he goes to a performance training facility in the off season.

Cressy Sports. Where Scherzer and Verlander work.

[blue911]

Cressy Sports. Where Scherzer and Verlander work.

That’s it. A place that helps digest all the data that teams/players amass. And we’re stuck with an amish pitching coach.

[Natsinpwc]

That’s it. A place that helps digest all the data that teams/players amass. And we’re stuck with an amish pitching coach.

Pitching?  He’s building a barn.

[GburgNatsFan]

Rumspringa now!

That’s it. A place that helps digest all the data that teams/players amass. And we’re stuck with an amish pitching coach.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Gray, who often tinkers on the mound, delivered seven pitches: fastball (24 pitches), cutter (24), curveball (16), sweeper (nine), changeup (three), slider (three) and sinker (one). Martinez would like to see him throw more fastballs (which he used more in the first and fourth innings) and increase his changeup usage against lefties.

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/josiah-gray-struggles-in-first-opening-day-start

There's a great graphic in the article linked to statcast tracking of Gray's pitches. Of his 80 pitches, 3 types were only 3 or fewer times - 3 changes (all to lefties), 3 sliders (all to righties), and one pitch labelled a sinker. Sweepers (9) were all to righties. Almost only 4 seam and sweeper vs righties, with some cutters and sliders, and curves, 4 seams and cutters vs lefties, with those 3 changeups.

I'm not sure which ones were crushed the most.

[nobleisthyname]

Interesting that it was his fastball that got him through his scoreless innings. That's been his most crushable pitch in previous years. Not sure if that's a good sign that maybe his fastball is improving or if it's a bad sign that his other pitches got crushed even harder than what was before his worst pitch.

The strikeouts were promising at least, to find a silver lining.

[imref]

I heard a bit of Davey's post-game presser and he specifically called out that Gray wasn't using his changeup as much as they want him to use it. I don't know if that's on Gray or on Ruiz.

[Slateman]

Interesting that it was his fastball that got him through his scoreless innings. That's been his most crushable pitch in previous years. Not sure if that's a good sign that maybe his fastball is improving or if it's a bad sign that his other pitches got crushed even harder than what was before his worst pitch.

The strikeouts were promising at least, to find a silver lining.

They hit .375 and slugged .750 off his four seamer.

Ever since adding a cutter, his slider is basically useless.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

They hit .375 and slugged .750 off his four seamer.

Ever since adding a cutter, his slider is basically useless.

My impression, just following on game day, was it was his slider in particular that was the first pitch to get him in trouble. They hit the sweeper, cutter, and curve too, but they seemed more effective. Perhaps just 3 pitches are enough vs righties (fastball, sweeper, cutter). or maybe the sliders were just sweepers that didn't sweep.

[IanRubbish]

I heard a bit of Davey's post-game presser and he specifically called out that Gray wasn't using his changeup as much as they want him to use it. I don't know if that's on Gray or on Ruiz.

It's ultimately on the poor coaching up and down this org.  Davey would rather keep his old pal Hickey on the payroll than bring in someone competent. 

[Mattionals]

It's ultimately on the poor coaching up and down this org.  Davey would rather keep his old pal Hickey on the payroll than bring in someone competent.

How much of this decision is Davey's choice and how much is it the ownership being cheap?

[varoadking]

I heard a bit of Davey's post-game presser and he specifically called out that Gray wasn't using his changeup as much as they want him to use it. I don't know if that's on Gray or on Ruiz.

I blame Doo...

[PowerBoater69]

Another Nats future star gone Kieboom.

[IanRubbish]

Another Nats future star gone Kieboom.

Yeah, but what's wrong with him?  I'm not watching tonight, just checking in on mlb.com, so not clear if he's doing the Hickey Shuffle around the strike zone, lacking command, or just poor pitch selection.

[imref]

Yeah, but what's wrong with him?  I'm not watching tonight, just checking in on mlb.com, so not clear if he's doing the Hickey Shuffle around the strike zone, lacking command, or just poor pitch selection.

leaving pitches over the middle of the plate

[PowerBoater69]

leaving pitches over the middle of the plate

From Zuckerman on Twitter:

Josiah Gray has thrown only 10-of-22 pitches for strikes so far. And the misses haven't been anywhere close to the zone.

And when he has gotten ahead in the count, he hasn't been able to finish anyone off. Pirates have 3 hits already, all of them coming with 2 strikes. Nats and Gray down 3-0.

That was early in the game, he got better but the damage was done.

[imref]

He did lower his era!

[Slateman]

At least his ERA went down

[JCA-CrystalCity]

At least his ERA went down

tell it to the sunshine thread

[nobleisthyname]

The Scherzer/Turner trade is turning out to be a complete bust at this rate. Have to really hope Ruiz learns how to catch.