Author Topic: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2  (Read 6365 times)

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Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #150: September 11, 2010, 08:27:48 PM »
Typically striking guys out eats up more pitches than getting groundball outs though.  A perfect game by all groundball outs or flyouts would take 27 pitches.  Striking everyone out would take 81.  I remember last year commenting on how much deeper Lannan would play getting groundball outs than the games where he was on a strikeout frenzy.

The downside to that is that league average BABIP is usually right around .300.  You can get away with teams getting on less than that sometimes, but the K is still the best option for a pitcher.  Pitch to contact is usually pitch to lose.

Offline Nathan

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #151: September 11, 2010, 08:30:24 PM »
Groundballs have the potential to result in fewer pitches per inning.  They also have the potential to result in really long innings because the groundballs don't turn into outs, but base hits.  In the end, the study (which analyzed a LOT of data) suggested, over the long term pitch counts were roughly equal among pitchers who struck out a lot but walked few and pitchers who got a lot of groundouts and walked few.  The strikeout pitchers, however, did substantially better over their time in the game.  As for pitchers who walked people... they tended to give up more runs and be out of the game earlier.  Like I said, walks are the killer.

Also, how am I already being ignored by someone?  I didn't think I was that inflammatory.
Could be an accidental one.  I've accidentally ignored people because of spurious taps on the ignore button when trying to scroll on my iPhone for instance.

Offline Nathan

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #152: September 11, 2010, 08:33:12 PM »
The downside to that is that league average BABIP is usually right around .300.  You can get away with teams getting on less than that sometimes, but the K is still the best option for a pitcher.  Pitch to contact is usually pitch to lose.
I'm not advocating changing any one type of pitcher into another.  People that work on the strikout do well striking people out.  Pitch to contact pitchers do better pitching to contact.  It takes a guy like Lannan or Marquis a lot more pitches to strike someone out than it would take someone like Strasburg or Zimmermann.  They typically do better playing to their strengths / style.

Pitch to contact pitchers have their spot.  It's just that you can't be a team with nothing but pitch to contact guys like we have been for a long time.  Two or three guys max with three strikeout pitchers would be ok.  Hopefully we have 2 good strikeout pitchers in 2012 with Strasburg and Zimmerman.


And yes, walks kill any pitcher.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #153: September 11, 2010, 08:37:07 PM »
I'm not advocating changing any one type of pitcher into another.  People that work on the strikout do well striking people out.  Pitch to contact pitchers do better pitching to contact.  It takes a guy like Lannan or Marquis a lot more pitches to strike someone out than it would take someone like Strasburg or Zimmermann.  They typically do better playing to their strengths / style.

Pitch to contact pitchers have their spot.  It's just that you can't be a team with nothing but pitch to contact guys like we have been for a long time.  Two or three guys max with three strikeout pitchers would be ok.  Hopefully we have 2 good strikeout pitchers in 2012 with Strasburg and Zimmerman.

Marquis' one tough inning today was when he batters were making contact.  Lannan is putting up the best series of starts in his career and it just happens to coincide with a big increase in K/9 and his best K/BB ratio for a single month, in his career.  Marquis and Lannan are much more effective pitchers when they're at least near league average strikeout pitchers.

Offline Nathan

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #154: September 11, 2010, 08:40:37 PM »
I think KK/BB would be the bigger factor, in Lannan's case.  What's league average K/9?  I'm not saying that neither one of them should be striking NO ONE out, but I don't expect Lannan or Marquis to have the stuff to efficiently K 10 batters per game either.

Offline PC

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #155: September 11, 2010, 08:52:37 PM »
NL K/9 - 7.33; MLB K/9 - 7.08

Offline Nathan

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #156: September 11, 2010, 08:53:56 PM »
Wow.  I guess I didn't realize that Lannan was that far below average :shock:

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #157: September 11, 2010, 08:55:55 PM »
I think KK/BB would be the bigger factor, in Lannan's case.  What's league average K/9?  I'm not saying that neither one of them should be striking NO ONE out, but I don't expect Lannan or Marquis to have the stuff to efficiently K 10 batters per game either.

League average is usually between 6-7 for K/9.

Offline PC

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #158: September 11, 2010, 08:58:19 PM »
Livan's K/9 is 4.79.  Marquis' is 4.26.  Lannan's 4.25.  If that's 3/5 of your starting rotation...that's not good.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #159: September 11, 2010, 08:58:47 PM »
Wow.  I guess I didn't realize that Lannan was that far below average :shock:

Except for the time since his return from the minors.  Suddenly he was 5.5 for August and 8.56 in two September starts.  It's not a coincidence that he's pitching much better (FIP 3.46 Aug, 3.98 Sept).

Offline chemist

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #160: September 11, 2010, 09:09:50 PM »
Didn't see the game but saw the awesome DP and Danny's grab to save two runs... wow.  For all the doom and gloom on this board, we have a promising young team...

Offline Sharp

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #161: September 11, 2010, 09:25:25 PM »
Livan's K/9 is 4.79.  Marquis' is 4.26.  Lannan's 4.25.  If that's 3/5 of your starting rotation...that's not good.
Which is why I think that for all our concerns about our hitting, starting pitching remains our number one priority.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #162: September 11, 2010, 10:27:26 PM »
Which is why I think that for all our concerns about our hitting, starting pitching remains our number one priority.

Marquis was hurt for the entire freaking year.  He's a 5.2 K/9 for his career.  That's not great but it's close enough to league average to be the innings eater he is.  Let's see if Lannan keeps this up until the end of the year.  If he does, then that's equivalent to a solid FA addition without having to go find anyone else.

JZ definitely projects over the league average.  The 'new and improved' Lannan and a healthy Marquis are close enough to league average to not hurt the rotation at all.  We don't know about Maya yet.  His first start, despite the terrible first inning plus, ended up at 3 K in 5 IP for a 5.4 K/9.  A good month from him, with something over 6 K/9 from his remaining starts, makes SP much less of a need. 

Get Crawford if at all possible.  Keep Dunn unless the demands are crazy.  Grab a FA SP if a decent one is left after the initial round of signings.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #163: September 11, 2010, 10:32:26 PM »
Wow.  I guess I didn't realize that Lannan was that far below average :shock:

He was probably the worst pitcher in the league before his demotion. He was heading for a historically bad WHIP. He's looked good since.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #164: September 11, 2010, 10:36:16 PM »
marquis and lannan have been awesome for us since coming back.  i'd say since the start of august, they have been two of our better players.  good momentum taking into next year.  wish other players could step up their game.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #165: September 11, 2010, 10:44:17 PM »
marquis and lannan have been awesome for us since coming back.  i'd say since the start of august, they have been two of our better players.  good momentum taking into next year.  wish other players could step up their game.

Maybe they are feeding off of each other.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #166: September 11, 2010, 10:46:37 PM »
Maybe they are feeding off of each other.

new yorkers baby!

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #167: September 11, 2010, 10:47:16 PM »
Maybe they are feeding off of each other.
First time in history that Nats players fed off of a fight between between 2 message board posters arguing which mediocre pitcher is less mediocre. Is it really a coincidence that they started to get it together after SF left?

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Nationals vs Marlins, Game 2
« Reply #168: September 11, 2010, 10:49:04 PM »
First time in history that Nats players fed off of a fight between between 2 message board posters arguing which mediocre pitcher is less mediocre. Is it really a coincidence that they started to get it together after SF left?


:funny: I meant they are trying to competively improve, but your post is better.