2008 Draft Status

[Steve Heezy]

Our good friend Brian Oliver over at Nat's Farm Authority is keeping track of the Nat's draft status for next year. As of now we WILL NOT have the #1 pick next year even if we lose the rest of our games. We currently hold the #8 pick in a tie with San Francisco but had a worse '06 record giving us the 8 pick and them the 9 pick. We will also finish with a top 15 pick so no matter what (if any) free agents we pick up this off season will are guaranteed to have our 1st round pick next year, but would give up our 2nd round pick to the team we signed the player from.

[MrMadison]

I love that blog

[Steve Heezy]

MrMad .... OT but I think I was standing next to you on the metro on the way home from the game on Sunday

[saltydad]

I love that blog

OK MrMad...who IS that in your new avi?

[PANatsFan]

OK MrMad...who IS that in your new avi?

I think its the weird Volkswagen commercial guy. I like the "Oh snap!" though.

[PANatsFan]

Our good friend Brian Oliver over at Nat's Farm Authority is keeping track of the Nat's draft status for next year. As of now we WILL NOT have the #1 pick next year even if we lose the rest of our games. We currently hold the #8 pick in a tie with San Francisco but had a worse '06 record giving us the 8 pick and them the 9 pick. We will also finish with a top 15 pick so no matter what (if any) free agents we pick up this off season will are guaranteed to have our 1st round pick next year, but would give up our 2nd round pick to the team we signed the player from.

We need to use this to our advantage to sign a top shelf free agent when we won't lose a 1st round pick.

[NatsAddict]

Just a bit more about next year's draft.  It does allude to the point about how the Olympics could interfere with some signings.

Scouting Directors Meet Without Draft Resolution
By Alan Matthews
September 19, 2007

Given the multimillion-dollar fireworks display that came on the Aug. 15 signing deadline that Major League Baseball instituted for the 2007 draft, you might have expected a guillotine to await some of the scouting directors at the annual scouting director meetings in Denver.

On the contrary, there was little substantive conversation regarding the eye-popping signing bonuses that teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Orioles and Royals awarded to some of their draft picks who held out until the final hours before the deadline.

"We talked about this year's signings, the procedures and protocol and things like that," Tigers scouting director David Chadd said. "There wasn't a whole lot of substance to it, though. I think at our level, being scouting directors, everyone understands that the bonuses are more of a product of what ownership allows. There wasn't a lot that could be said or talked about at our level, at least from my point of view."

To that end, the title of the 30 men who met, along with MLB officials, was misleading. When it comes to the amount of money their teams spend on each draft choice, especially in the early rounds, scouting directors are usually at the mercy of their superiors. They're provided with a budget, and unless they were Chadd or a handful of other scouting directors whose ownership approved signings over the recommended slots, they draft accordingly.

After Detroit dropped more than $7.3 million in the draft, including a $3.58 million bonus (as part of a $7 million major league deal) on the 27th overall pick, Rick Porcello, Chadd might not have been the most popular person among his budget-strapped peers at the meetings. But rather than slapping the wrist of those clubs that chose not to abide by the commissioner's office slotting system, the sentiment among those in attendance was just more of the same head-shaking at the flaws of the current structure.

"Until there's a hard-line slotting system, the bottom line is it's not going to work," said an American League scouting director who wished to remain anonymous. "Do I point a finger at (Yankees scouting director) Damon Oppenheimer or David Chadd because they took players our ownership prevented us from drafting? No.

"I can't tell you that I would not have done the same thing if I was afforded the same resources some of those other guys were permitted to work with."

Instead of quibbling over how the draft did or didn't work, discussion turned to what the residual effects would be moving forward. Now that the industry has been through the first draft with a hard deadline and greater pressure to reduce payouts, there was plenty of speculation of what the 2008 draft will look like.

"Next year, does every agent in the world tell the small-market teams, 'We don't want you picking our players,' or does everyone sign on August 14th?" a National League scouting director said. "You'd like to think that there are enough kids who want to get their professional careers started (who believe) signing for X amount is a pretty good way to do it . . . But we'll find out next June."

Three other items on the agenda were:

• Increasing the recommended maximum bonus for players drafted after the fifth round from $123,300 to closer to $175,000, as well as moving the signing deadline up from Aug. 15 to July 10. No changes were made to either element, and both are written into the Collective Bargaining Agreement, which can be amended but otherwise doesn't expire until 2011.

• How MLB and the Major League Scouting Bureau can improve the operation of high school showcases. The bureau already has hosted at least two showcases at the MLB Urban Youth Academy in Compton, Calif., a trend that will continue, and MLB has interest in taking an active role in the organization and operation of other events, such as the East Coast Showcase and Area Code Games.

• How to ensure that USA Baseball gets maximum participation from as many of the best college players in the country on its annual college national team, and possibly including a series of games between Team USA and teams from the Cape Cod League during the team's domestic schedule each summer.

Classes Take Shape

With college summer leagues done and the showcase circuit entering hibernation, the 2008 draft class is beginning to take shape.

It was a good indication of the mediocrity of the college class when a first baseman (Miami's Yonder Alonso) ranked No. 2 in the Cape Cod League (BA, Sept. 10-23) and sophomores (Missouri righty Kyle Gibson and Southern Cal's Robert Stock) ranked third and fifth. After the college national team's top two position players, Team USA didn't boast another everyday player that finished the summer as a consensus first-round talent.

"It definitely looks like it's light on players, period, at least in the upper echelon—the highest profile, top-of-the-board type of players," an AL scouting director said. "There's not very good college talent in that first, second, third pick range. If you're picking 25th, you might have a better chance at a decent college guy (whose value matches the pick), but the upper echelon of this class is not that good.

"The same in the high school ranks. Once you start getting into that 20 to 40 range, there are some that are real good, but I don't think it's a good year to be picking in the top 10 for value, when you consider what you pay for those players. If you have to pay $1 million-plus, I don't see that many guys that you would want to give that money to."

Scouts always wish more talent was on the horizon, but the '08 high school class does provide some prospects with upside that scouts might be more willing to pay by June.

No prep prospect did more for his stock this summer than Georgia shortstop Tim Beckham. A fluid athlete with ease in his actions and thump in his bat, Beckham, along with the Miami pair of corner infielders Harold Martinez and Eric Hosmer, separated themselves from the rest of the lackluster crop of high school position players.

Hosmer, meanwhile, was the MVP of the Connie Mack World Series in Farmington, N.M., and shows a sound approach, raw power and a swing and defensive game at first base reminiscent of Angels first baseman Casey Kotchman, a fellow Floridian.

After Beckham, Hosmer and Martinez, pitchers dominate the class. Tim Melville's been a marked man since he teamed up as a 15-year-old with Stock and '06 first-rounders Josh Vitters and Blake Beavan on the U.S. youth team in 2005. He missed most of his sophomore season with an arm injury, but the time off appeared to serve him well this summer, as he held his velocity late into August when he again joined Team USA—this time the junior squad—during international competition in Mexico. The righthander from Wentzville, Mo., has a clean delivery, feel for his secondary stuff and a fastball that was still touching 94 mph during his last appearance stateside in Joplin, Mo., last month.

"He's the guy. He's going to go quick," said an NL crosschecker in attendance at the junior trials. "Melville stands out over the rest."

Lurking in the field of high school talent are a handful of excellent athletes that could click as potential impact prospects, though the gap between their present and their potential is substantial. The California trio of Aaron Hicks, Isaac Galloway and Anthony Gose has electrifying tools. Football studs Xavier Avery, a running back who committed to Georgia; Alabama outfielder Destin Hood; Sarasota, Fla., quarterback Casey Kelly and Virginia product and Florida State signee Kyle Long, the son of NFL Hall of Famer Howie, have endless upside with immense holes in their swings.

Baseball America

[MrMadison]

MrMad .... OT but I think I was standing next to you on the metro on the way home from the game on Sunday

eh? SAY SOMETHING THEN! 

Big, Bald Black Guy with daughter, wearing Dora The Explorer Backpack = me on Sunday.

[MrMadison]

I think its the weird Volkswagen commercial guy. I like the "Oh snap!" though.

[Steve Heezy]

eh? SAY SOMETHING THEN! 

Big, Bald Black Guy with daughter, wearing Dora The Explorer Backpack = me on Sunday.

I will indeed next time. However, at the time I did not know it was you. This Monday I noticed a pic posted on here of you and your daughter running the bases and realized that it looked rather familiar.

I was the short white guy holding onto the pole and you kept telling your daughter to hold on to your shirt.