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Ah yes, the cost. The Guardians traded Josh Hartle, Will Dion, Kendeglys Virguez, and Nick Mitchell to Washington. At a high level, that’s quantity over quality, three interesting arms and an outfielder, none ranked above a 40 FV. But it’s FanGraphs, so of course we also have a granular level of detail – after I phoned a friend, lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, for some updated notes.Hartle is the highest-ranked of the bunch, a 40-FV starter who was the other half of the return for Spencer Horwitz (along with the currently-on-the-restricted-list Luis Ortiz). He’s 6-foot-6 and slender, a lanky lefty whose delivery gives off Andrew Heaney vibes. He sits in the low 90s and throws some funky fastballs that he pairs with an excellent changeup, plus a slider that he’ll hopefully improve on as he gets more experience. If you’re looking for an aspirational comparison, what about Foster Griffin? Hartle projects as an innings-eating fifth starter, and he’s having a so-so year in his first full season at Double-A.Dion made his big league debut this year and has been an up-and-down bullpen arm, working multi-inning stints as he transitions out of the rotation. He sits in the low 90s, even in relief, but his fastball plays way above its velocity. He’s extremely over-the-top and spins the ball well, which results in nearly perfect backspin and an uncomfortable at-bat for his opponents. His release point calls Trey Yesavage to mind, albeit from the other side of the rubber; that arm angle is just hard to pick up.Dion drops a big 12-6 curve off of his fastball, and the rest of his secondaries are still works in progress, but the results have been spectacular in 2026, both in Triple-A and the bigs. He’s striking out roughly a third of the batters he faces and walking almost no one. It’s hard to project future excellence from a soft-tosser with a 4.58 ERA on the year, but I find myself very intrigued by the possibilities here. The big risk would be that he just doesn’t have good enough stuff to prevent very loud contact. Eric put a 40 FV on him as a long reliever, and I’d be interested in seeing what he can do in shorter bursts too.Virguez is something of a reverse Hartle. He’s a righty reliever who runs his sinker up into triple digits, sitting around 98 mph with good movement. He has a sharp slider too – it’s basically the standard late-inning reliever package. But injuries have limited his reps significantly; he signed in 2022 and yet this is the first season where he’s eclipsed 20 innings above the complex-level leagues. Guys with his profile don’t always work out, and if he doesn’t improve on his command, he’s probably not much more than a stuff-over-command middle reliever. But if he does figure something out, he has the tools to be a closer. That’s the case with a lot of relievers, so trading for these guys is a numbers game – Eric pointed out to me that Yovanny Cruz, who the Nats just acquired in the Luis García Jr. deal, is a very similar type of player.That leaves Mitchell, the lone position player of the four-man return. He, too, was involved in a Horwitz deal; in his case, he was the other player the Guardians got back from Toronto for Andrés Giménez. He’s a contact-hitting outfielder who might have enough speed for center, and the Guardians gave him playing time at all three outfield spots in his first shot at Double-A this year. He walks a lot and doesn’t strike out much, but that’s kind of the extent of the offensive excitement. He has 45-grade raw power, but it plays down in games because his swing is groundball-oriented. He’s also the kind of hitter whose walk rate looks likely to crumble as he faces advanced competition; he’s walking because he only swings 40% of the time, not because pitchers fear him. Big league pitchers, and even Triple-A pitchers, won’t let him get away with that. He’s going to have to either do enough damage to make them respect his power or live with a slap-hitting, low-walk approach. We have him down as a 35+ FV, a fringe 40-man type whose defensive versatility will be key to his ability to get big league playing time.While none of those four youngsters are likely to turn into world-beaters for the Nats, they could all credibly contribute to the next playoff team in DC. In a lot of these roles – back-of-the-rotation starter, high-velo reliever, fourth outfielder – my preferred approach is to have a ton of possible solutions in the farm system and see which ones work out. The Nats seem to agree with me, because they’re stockpiling plenty of 35+- and 40-FV types in their trades at this deadline.
I think we may have found something even if it's not lefty gas.
Is Mitchell a prospect for "the next contending Nats team"? Is he much different than Christhia Casquez or Yaremy Cabrera, or another light-hitting, good fielding OF bouncing around Fredericksburg?
I have no idea who 'ryryjones.bksy.social' is but they posted this to 'X'.Source: Foster Griffin wanted 5/120-130 #Nats did not want to go beyond 3 years and so they traded him late. negotiations went up until the trade was finalized.
5 years was too long...
Some of the early deals this deadline made me think that the buyers had the upper hand. The Cubs got Kevin Gausman for a relative pittance. Taylor Ward, a righty outfielder in a market completely lacking in that combination, brought back three fringey relief prospects. The Skubal sweepstakes didn’t go completely bonkers. It was a slow buildup.But as sellers held the line, bids started to increase. The Red Sox gave up two Top 100 prospects and another interesting arm for Adley Rutschman. The Brewers sent a Top 100 prospect to the rival Cardinals for two rental players, the Milwaukee front office equivalent of a bender. The Red Sox cut bait on Marcelo Mayer for relief help. The Cubs decided that they needed more pitching – even after getting Gausman, David Peterson (earlier), and Braxton Garrett – and sent out a Top 100 prospect of their own for Clay Holmes.Not every trade followed this pattern of better returns as the deadline approached. The Nats held onto Foster Griffin until the last minute and then had to settle for four marginal prospects instead of just keeping him. But I think the shape of it makes sense. While plenty of teams seemed happy to go into the deadline with a halfway approach, offloading a few pending free agents or adding around the edges, there weren’t many motivated sellers, teams that knew they were out of the race and had valuable players to move. That meant that as the clock ticked down, the negotiating leverage swung.
Ben Clemens has an interesting take on the Griffin deal. Essentially, we waited too long to move him and got squeezed at the end.https://blogs.fangraphs.com/winners-and-losers-from-the-2026-trade-deadline/Not the clearest paragraph. Not clear what the "it" in the "shape of it" means.
The plot thickens. Is the return light because we were spending as much time trying to negotiate an extension as we were shopping him?Also, I'd love to know what the dollar amount was at three years.
I find that report about Griffin hard to believe. He's not getting that kind of money and deal length for a bit over half a season of solid performance.
I can believe the idea the Nats weren't selling him except for a haul then the market was bad combined with us dropping our price too late.
I think this one was a fumble.
Some combination of that and getting crap offers to start with because Griffin is overperforming in scouts (and analytics) eyes makes a ton of sense here to me.
Nussbaum and others thought Griffin would be delighted with a three year contract at $12-15 million per year, calling that life changing money for Griffin and his family. I'm not sure I believe the "Source". And I doubt he will get that from the baseball market.
It's entirely possible that the team wasn't going to move him until we fell apart before the deadline, and instead planned to keep him to make a run at a wild card slot.
Robbie Ray got a decent offer. He cost way more and is performing much worse. The deal felt light at the time and it feels lighter knowing what we know.This just seems like an inexperienced GM/POBO to me. Maybe coupled with crappy ownership.
I think it's a few things.Also, I think instant trade grades really prioritize one big time prospect over lots of lottery tickets. This front office seems to zag the other way. Only time will tell if they're right.
