FG had him as a 40+ in their mid-year update of "The Board" before the trade deadline and slot him in at #11 in the Nats system. He was a 35+ at the start of the year.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board?sortcol=3&sortdir=ascCebert spent three years at South Florida before transferring to Texas Tech for his senior year. Tech is known to leave developmental meat on the bone, so it's not necessarily surprising that Cebert got better in pro ball, but how much and how quickly he improved is pretty amazing. His fastball sat 91-93 during the Big 12 tournament in May, then was 93-98 after the draft, albeit in a very small sample. It's possible rest is the only thing responsible for Cebert's burst; he was a starter at USF and a long reliever at Tech, but he worked an inning at a time post-draft.
Cebert could stand to locate his fastball at the top of the zone more often; he was peppering the low-and-arm-side quadrant too often in college and barely generated any swing and miss. His upper-80s cutter and low-80s slider also played like below-average pitches, but they have above-average pure spin. Cebert moves well and is built like a big league pitcher at a strapping 6-foot-3, so the raw physical material for the Yankees to work with is here. The big velo boost is enough to put Cebert on the radar, but the context makes us want to see him prove he can throw that hard all year before moving him higher on this list.
That was the pre-season write up so there's been improvement since then.
Dan Szym has more with more up to date info.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-bulk-up-the-offense-with-luis-garcia-jr/Back in March, Jack Cebert was barely on the radar for the Yankees, and we ranked him 27th among their prospects. My colleague Eric Longenhagen has described the 24-year-old Cebert as maybe the biggest riser in the New York system this year. He’s a well-built hurler who throws strikes and has good breaking pitches, but still lacks an offspeed weapon. His raw numbers aren’t super impressive, but he does miss bats, and he’s improved as he’s gotten more experience at Double-A. After allowing a home run in each of his first eight starts for Double-A Somerset, he hasn’t given up any in his five starts since. Eric now thinks of Cebert as a 40+ FV prospect who “already looks like a backend starter.”
I’m surprised at how solid Cebert’s ZiPS projection in Washington is already; he could very easily make the 2027 rotation if the Nats project him similarly.
has ZiPS projections in the linked article. Sounds maybe like a Jake Irvin level guy?
