Nationals @ Orioles, Game 2

[tomterp]

They all pitch out of fear. It is pathetic to watch.

They, like us, expect the worst.

[tomwvr]

They all pitch out of fear. It is pathetic to watch.

Yep - if you remember the philly relievers the tossed balls to win

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Then walk Alonso, that simple.

walk the tying run to bring the go ahead run to the plate? you trust poulin that much?

[tomterp]

Beeter's been good after the first two floaters.

[aspenbubba]

So how do the Nats lose this one?

.

 Patient grasshopper. You have to wait until they are one strike away from closing out the game.

[RobDibblesGhost]

The way we’re hitting with runners on base tonight, the free runner is actually a disadvantage

[tomterp]

.

 Patient grasshopper. You have to wait until they are one strike away from closing out the game.

 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I have no idea who pitches the 10th for the Nats. I'd be tempted to push Beeter despite 20 pitches.

[tomterp]

Dominant inning from Clayton.   

[tomterp]

I have no idea who pitches the 10th for the Nats. I'd be tempted to push Beeter despite 20 pitches.

What does your computer say?   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What does your computer say?   

[RobDibblesGhost]

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Well, plated on in the 10th so far.

[RobDibblesGhost]

I have no idea who pitches the 10th for the Nats. I'd be tempted to push Beeter despite 20 pitches.

Charlie and Dave predict Justin Lawrence makes his Nats debut.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What does your computer say?   

my ouija board says its Lovelady.


May G-d have mercy on our souls.

[tomterp]

Vivas has been hot lately.   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Vivas!

[RobDibblesGhost]

Nice hustle by Vivas

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Charlie and Dave predict Justin Lawrence makes his Nats debut.

makes some sense, actually.

[tomterp]

Vivas with the Baltimore Chop!   

[welch]

So you say a manager should intentionally bet against the odds?  Those mistakes in judgement accumulate over a season whether it's the same pitcher/hitter or different ones, no different. 

I say a manager should stick with a pitcher who is settled. That was Poulin. The betting odd make sense over many tries, but not for each seperate throw. For instance, we remember when Matt Williams pulled Jordan Zimmermann in Game 2 of that playoof game. For another example, I remembered the Braves-Yankees World Series of 1957. In Game 1, Mickey Mantle went 2-for-4 against Warren Spahn. Both singles. In Game 4, Mantle went 0-for-5 against Spahn.

An individua; at-bat is not the same as a season's worth of at-bats.

In his greatest season, Ted Williams failed 6-of-10 times. In the Nats' worst recent seasons, they still won about 40% of games.

Analytics cannot tell you what to do in any given spot in any inning.

[RobDibblesGhost]

Hope one run is enough

[welch]

Hope one run is enough

Irt's usually not, but we can still hope.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

44 was Hudson's number, right?

[tomterp]

Analytics cannot tell you what to do in any given spot in any inning.

Of course not, you're just trying to gain some small % advantage over other alternative each time you make a pitching change (as well as protect the health of the pitcher(s).  Those advantages add up over the course of a season, you can eke out a few more wins.