Should We Buy or Should We Sell Now - Trade Deadline 2026

[Slateman]

Palmquist has options.

Oh, BTW - Dick Lovelady may be coming back, and Kranick may need a roster spot.

Oh cool, a guy with a 5.72 xERA and a 1.81 WHIP to go with another reliever who hasn't pitched in over a year and wasn't that good to begin with.

I'd much rather have Minter, Raley, or Ferguson than one of those.

We're four games back. We need to play well above .500. The only month we did that was May, which happens to the be the only month our bullpen's era wasn't 5 (well, technically, April was like 4.95, but you get my point). We need to exceed previous performance.


The thing is, the whole reason we got Toboni was the draft. This is, supposedly, what he excels at. So giving up guys like Fien, Clemmey, and Dickerson should be simple. Like, Hacopian will probably slot in above Fien, Ford, and King at the end of the season, so already we've made up one of our top 100 prospects. Luke Williams is a Dickerson replacement. The thing that freaked Rizzo over wasn't making too many trades, its that he could never re-stock the system because his drafts sucked (or his player development sucked, not sure which). Toboni's calling card is the draft and player development. I'm less concerned with giving up guys like Cruz, DFG, and Fien, as I feel like Toboni can find their replacements relatively easily in the draft.

[Slateman]

The more I think about this, the more I am convinced that the worst thing we could do is a soft buy or a soft sell.

We started this journey with a pretty substantial move in trading Gore and, to a lesser extent, Ferrer. Toboni picked a direction and set forth on his journey. And along the way, we discovered that perhaps, we were premature in our path. We have slowly diverged away from the course Toboni plotted, which was re-booting the rebuild and targeting 2028 or later

That means the current path forward should be a pretty hard sell at this year's deadline. Definitely Griffin and Garcia. And really, you should be moving Abrams and Cavalli at this point. Had we played like the pundits predicted, that is what we would be doing this deadline. And, long term, it would set us up for pretty massive success. We desperately need an influx of pitching that would likely be the returns for guys like Griffin and Abrams.

However, if Toboni wants to make the playoffs, a simple soft buy will not do. It would have worked in early June. Simply having a couple of ~4 ERA relievers on the roster would have kept us in a WC spot. But we need more now. We need a starter who can throw more than 65 pitches and be effective as well as a couple of decent/good relievers.

The point is that decisive, demonstrative action is required at the deadline. We can push forward to the playoffs or we an push forward to rebuild. There can not be any inbetween.

[welch]

It is time for Toboni to find a couple of relief pitchers. As Slatye says, there are plenty of pretty good, but not dazzling, players in the minors. Do it now, Toboni.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm paying attention to the "replacement level killers" series in Fangraphs for potential match ups with the Nats if the Nats decide to sell. The list goes through teams with the 22 teams that have greater a 10% chance at the playoffs by FG's projections (Nats are down to < 4%) and identifies the contenders with 0.6 fWAR from each position. Not all of these teams would  be in the trade market, some of these teams are impacted by injuries with guys coming back (Trevor Story) or with recent call ups who are internal solutions.  Still, these teams might be potential markets for, say, Luis Garcia (1B) or CJ (SS) if there's a decision to deal.

They've done C, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B so far.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-introduction-catcher/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-first-base-second-base/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-shortstop-third-base/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-left-field-center-field/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-right-field/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-designated-hitter/

For Garcia, the Diamondbacks seem like an obvious partner, but, tbh, are the Dbacks that much more of a contender in the real world than the Nats? Were the Guardians to move off Manzardo, that would be another match. Tigers, Mariners, and Blue Jays also have had bad production, but I don't see Vladi or Naylor being displaced by LGJr.

As for Abrams, if the Twins aren't  in sell mode, Abrams could be useful to them. The Rays could view him as a short  term pick up who they could flip in the offseason. Brewers  just  signed a prospect long term, the Phillies aren't moving on from Turner, and the Sox  will likely  want to play Story when he's healthy.

[Squab]

I'm paying attention to the "replacement level killers" series in Fangraphs for potential match ups with the Nats if the Nats decide to sell. The list goes through teams with the 22 teams that have greater a 10% chance at the playoffs by FG's projections (Nats are down to < 4%) and identifies the contenders with 0.6 fWAR from each position. Not all of these teams would  be in the trade market, some of these teams are impacted by injuries with guys coming back (Trevor Story) or with recent call ups who are internal solutions.  Still, these teams might be potential markets for, say, Luis Garcia (1B) or CJ (SS) if there's a decision to deal.

They've done C, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B so far.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-introduction-catcher/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-first-base-second-base/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-shortstop-third-base/

For Garcia, the Diamondbacks seem like an obvious partner, but, tbh, are the Dbacks that much more of a contender in the real world than the Nats? Were the Guardians to move off Manzardo, that would be another match. Tigers, Mariners, and Blue Jays also have had bad production, but I don't see Vladi or Naylor being displaced by LGJr.

As for Abrams, if the Twins aren't  in sell mode, Abrams could be useful to them. The Rays could view him as a short  term pick up who they could flip in the offseason. Brewers  just  signed a prospect long term, the Phillies aren't moving on from Turner, and the Sox  will likely  want to play Story when he's healthy.

fun series thanks for linking, maybe one of them could add him as a DH or a LH platoon at one of those positions? (praying, hoping)

[imref]

Janes reports that the Mets have let baseball executives know that they are open for business and won't be waiting until the deadline to make deals.

everyone but Juan Soto, Carson Benge, AJ Ewing, Christian Scott, and Nolan McLean are available

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm paying attention to the "replacement level killers" series in Fangraphs for potential match ups with the Nats if the Nats decide to sell. The list goes through teams with the 22 teams that have greater a 10% chance at the playoffs by FG's projections (Nats are down to < 4%) and identifies the contenders with 0.6 fWAR from each position. Not all of these teams would  be in the trade market, some of these teams are impacted by injuries with guys coming back (Trevor Story) or with recent call ups who are internal solutions.  Still, these teams might be potential markets for, say, Luis Garcia (1B) or CJ (SS) if there's a decision to deal.

They've done C, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B so far.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-introduction-catcher/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-first-base-second-base/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-shortstop-third-base/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-left-field-center-field/

For Garcia, the Diamondbacks seem like an obvious partner, but, tbh, are the Dbacks that much more of a contender in the real world than the Nats? Were the Guardians to move off Manzardo, that would be another match. Tigers, Mariners, and Blue Jays also have had bad production, but I don't see Vladi or Naylor being displaced by LGJr.

As for Abrams, if the Twins aren't  in sell mode, Abrams could be useful to them. The Rays could view him as a short  term pick up who they could flip in the offseason. Brewers  just  signed a prospect long term, the Phillies aren't moving on from Turner, and the Sox  will likely  want to play Story when he's healthy.

I added the LF  / CF  list to the original post.

CF would be for potential JY landing spots. JY has complied 1.2 fWAR so far this year, mostly on defense. Cards, DBacks, Os, Astros, and Tigers make the list  for CFs. Cards and Astors may be the most likely to  need to go outside the organization. Os could use a platoon with Cowser, while Tigers still may be more sellers than buyers.

[welch]

It was time, two weeks ago, for Toboni to wake up and get at least one respectable reliever. What is he waiting for?

[IdahoNat]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/multiple-teams-asking-nationals-about-luis-garcia-jr.html
Didn't think Luis would be part of the trade talks but here we are. I wouldn't do it unless we're getting major league or major league ready pitching; similar to the Oakland A's situation in 2002 where they traded Caros Peña and had a ready replacement in Scott Hatteberg while in the race. In this case, we could have as many as 3 if you count Chapparo.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/multiple-teams-asking-nationals-about-luis-garcia-jr.html
Didn't think Luis would be part of the trade talks but here we are. I wouldn't do it unless we're getting major league or major league ready pitching; similar to the Oakland A's situation in 2002 where they traded Caros Peña and had a ready replacement in Scott Hatteberg while in the race. In this case, we could have as many as 3 if you count Chapparo.

If the Nats are out of WC contention, then I could definitely see Garcia as in discussion for a trade, along with JY and Griffin as high end assets. I don't see him being used  to get stretch drive help to contend. JY is the Pena analogy  with Crews behind him.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

FWIW, Jim Bo in the Athletic believes there are only 6 clear sellers - Rockies, Angels, Giants, Mets, Reds, and Royals. Just about  all of these teams have useful bullpen pieces except the Angels, who have some starters.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7448646/2026/07/17/mlb-trade-deadline-sellers-targets

[IdahoNat]

If the Nats are out of WC contention, then I could definitely see Garcia as in discussion for a trade, along with JY and Griffin as high end assets. I don't see him being used  to get stretch drive help to contend. JY is the Pena analogy  with Crews behind him.

Depending on how Harry Ford plays, they may give him a few games in the corner OF when Ruiz starts to keep his bat in the lineup too.

[Squab]

if you assume Griffin is gone next year and Garcia will regress and/or leave after next year, it seems like a hard but necessary decision to sell now rather than roll the dice on a dream scenario of a wild card appearance with an outmatched squad.

imagine you can get a few pieces like Ford, one of them is bound to work out and give you more value in the long run and line up with a 2028 contention window when the purse strings loosen a bit.

[welch]

FWIW, Jim Bo in the Athletic believes there are only 6 clear sellers - Rockies, Angels, Giants, Mets, Reds, and Royals. Just about  all of these teams have useful bullpen pieces except the Angels, who have some starters.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7448646/2026/07/17/mlb-trade-deadline-sellers-targets

With a couple of medium relievers and a starter, like Irvin, this is a playoff team. The field lineup is fine. The starting pitching, meaning Cavalli and Griffin, lacks two pitchers. The relievers are a crime against baseball. Forget "the rebuild". The Nats are rebuilt, except for the bullpen. No reason to trade away CJ, Garcia, Keibert, Young, or the rest.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Depending on how Harry Ford plays, they may give him a few games in the corner OF when Ruiz starts to keep his bat in the lineup too.

or dh and play Wood and Lile. I guess playing one of the Cs in the field means you don't lose the dh if you have to replace the starting C

[JCA-CrystalCity]

With a couple of medium relievers and a starter, like Irvin, this is a playoff team. The field lineup is fine. The starting pitching, meaning Cavalli and Griffin, lacks two pitchers. The relievers are a crime against baseball. Forget "the rebuild". The Nats are rebuilt, except for the bullpen. No reason to trade away CJ, Garcia, Keibert, Young, or the rest.

what's interesting is this could be right too.

I'm not even sure you need much more than a couple of relievers. CowherPower's thread about the record after 7 may mean that, even with Littell and Mikolas, the starter/ bulk innings guys who pitch the first 7 innings are adequate.  We have Irvin next week or so, which lets Alvarez push someone else out. So that's 3 upgrades if we deal for 2 relievers.

Of course, we did not bank the wins when we led after 7, so no guarantee that we continue to plie up early leads without a starter or two upgrade.

[IdahoNat]

With all the mid level prospects they acquired at the deadline last year (Josh Randall, Eriq Swan, etc.) I don't see why some of them could be dealt for at least a few adequate relievers. But I'd rather them be aggressive and trade one of their crop of IF prospects for a set-up man or closer. I do wonder if the Cavalli incident might have soured relations with the Red Sox and taken them out of the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes.

[Natsinpwc]

Other teams need relievers also and teams like the Phillies are more likely to offer better prospects to go all in.  I think you need a starter also to realistically contend. You have to expect some downturn in the offense during the second half.

[Slateman]

FWIW, Jim Bo in the Athletic believes there are only 6 clear sellers - Rockies, Angels, Giants, Mets, Reds, and Royals. Just about  all of these teams have useful bullpen pieces except the Angels, who have some starters.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7448646/2026/07/17/mlb-trade-deadline-sellers-targets

Angels have useful bullpen pieces too.  Kirby Yates would be a huge improvement for this team.

[GataNats]

I would definitely deal Ruiz for some pitching.  Ford is going to be the guy.   Also, would look at what is available for Griffin.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

With all the mid level prospects they acquired at the deadline last year (Josh Randall, Eriq Swan, etc.) I don't see why some of them could be dealt for at least a few adequate relievers. But I'd rather them be aggressive and trade one of their crop of IF prospects for a set-up man or closer. I do wonder if the Cavalli incident might have soured relations with the Red Sox and taken them out of the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes.

what was the price for Finnegan? Randall or Randall plus? Wasn't high. I'd flip him. He's been fine in the minors.

With the Sox 12 game win streak and rise in the standings, Chapman and Whitlock are off the market

Yates is a good target

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I would definitely deal Ruiz for some pitching.  Ford is going to be the guy.   Also, would look at what is available for Griffin.

I wonder if Ruiz is viewed as positive trade value. It’s just a couple of months hitting, and it's a multi-year commitment

[Slateman]

If we're trading Garcia and Ruiz, you may as well trade Abrams. You're punting until 2028 at the earliest, at which point, you are either dealing Abrams at the deadline or trading him after the 2028. Both of those will be a rather significant loss of value over trading him now.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Honestly it's confusing as all heck which way they'll go right now. A's then Rockies before playing the DBacks at home. Botched the last home stand, but this next stretch can make up for it.

[imref]

Grant Paulsen spoke to Tobani yesterday, highlights:

On the trade deadline:

"We're going to see how these next 15 days play out. A lot can change. We're going to be really prepared; everything is on the table."

Other notes:

⚾️ Doesn't think you generally need to be all-in on buying or selling can do some of both. Cited the Dodgers as having sold some pieces based on reading the market well in recent years.

⚾️ Acknowledged that they think they can "coach" power. Pretty clear at MLB and MILB levels this year that a lot of guys have found more pop: Wood, Abrams, Mead, Garcia, JY, Yoyo, Lipscomb, Wallace, Pinckney, Willits, Lomavita etc etc etc ... Said the plan for each guy is different in terms of coaching them into more HRs.

⚾️ Wouldn't get into if they'd talked about an extension with Foster Griffin but said "that's something we think about" in a broader sense with several players. Said Griffin is a "big one" when talking about that.

⚾️ Confirmed that teams have reached out on Luis Garcia. "He's been one of the top hitters in baseball so that's a natural thing."

⚾️ Said they think this is who Curtis Mead is. They think he may even have another gear. They don't think this is an outlier performance or career year. They also think he'll keep getting better defensively.