For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase

[The Chief]

[imref]

Playoff odds up to 4.5%

[welch]

What a 9th inning!



Nats back a game above .500, at .507.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Harper at Nationals Baseball Blog gives his take on the possibility of a playoff appearance:
https://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2026/06/are-playoffs-possibility.html

he views the Nats as ".500 ish" in terms of talent and notes sometimes that level is enough to get into the playoffs, then assesses whether this is one of those years where rivals potentially underperform and that type  of team gets in. More or less concedes the top  playoff spots to the division leaders, then assesses the WC teams.

Select thoughts; as always, read his article for thoughts on more teams:

The Cardinals and Phillies are in and based on these numbers are catchable. The Cardinals aren't better than the Nats, but aren't worse. Their advantage is simply being where they are right now. The Nats have to catch them. The Phillies are more in danger, powered to their record by a 14-5 one-run game record as opposed to the stats. The Nats have a good shot of catching Philly if they play like they have this year. The question there is do you take the year as a whole or ignore the terrible start?  If you put that behind the Phillies, they probably are in the Cardinals area - not great but good enough to hold that advantage.
...
Just ahead of the Nats are the Cubs and Pirates. This may be where the problem lies for the Nats. These two look like teams that should do much better. So while the Phillies, D-Backs, and Padres might flub the last two WC spots, it's the Cubs and Pirates who'd the numbers say you should bet on.

Article discusses his thinking on the Mets, D-backs, Marlins, SD and Cincy. Big pack, but he thinks the numbers point to a slight miss of the playoffs now for the Nats.

[Slateman]

So how many top 100ish prospects are we willing to part with to make the playoffs?

[welch]

So how many top 100ish prospects are we willing to part with to make the playoffs?

Maybe zero? Maybe the pitching will improve by next season, when Sykora and Susana are pitching again. Let the prospect infielders grow and learn this season. King ought to be ready for promotion later this year, just as Tena needs a rest or as Nassim the Dream goes to Rochester to improve his hitting.

[Natsinpwc]

So how many top 100ish prospects are we willing to part with to make the playoffs?

Zero

[varoadking]

Zero

Yup...just deal Abrams for an arm...or two...

[Slateman]

Maybe zero? Maybe the pitching will improve by next season, when Sykora and Susana are pitching again. Let the prospect infielders grow and learn this season. King ought to be ready for promotion later this year, just as Tena needs a rest or as Nassim the Dream goes to Rochester to improve his hitting.

Sykora and Rosario will be on pretty significant innings limits. Susana still cant throw strikes

[Natsinpwc]

Yup...just deal Abrams for an arm...or two...

This Is The Way.

Which reminds me when does the Madolorian movie come to free streaming?

[Slateman]

This Is The Way.

Which reminds me when does the Madolorian movie come to free streaming?

August or September, most likely

[welch]

Sykora and Rosario will be on pretty significant innings limits. Susana still cant throw strikes

Sure. We know they won't start the season in the Nats rotation. They will slowly ease back, at Harrisburg and then Rochester. Second half of the season, and they we will see what kind of team we have to cheer for.

[Natsinpwc]

August or September, most likely

Thanks

[Slateman]

Thanks

Might be sooner if it does poor rentals on the streaming platforms.

[Slateman]

Sure. We know they won't start the season in the Nats rotation. They will slowly ease back, at Harrisburg and then Rochester. Second half of the season, and they we will see what kind of team we have to cheer for.

Syroka will probably be limited to ~80 innings next season. Rosario probably 110-120. They won't be up on the MLB team but for a handful of innings.

[PowerBoater69]

Rooting for the Rockies and Reds

[PowerBoater69]

Rooting for the Rockies and Reds

They won.

[imref]

Tied for a WC spot!!!!

[nfotiu]

The run differential compared to the other teams in contention is looking pretty strong.   Maybe their chances are real.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So far, the Nats have played the Cards and Padres at home, Pirates, Cubs, D-backs, and Cinci on the road, with multiple series  remaining vs  the Phillies and Marlins (who are 4 games back). Next series at home with these  teams  is the Phillies on 6/22-25. Pirates on 7/3-5 could be surprisingly important for both teams.

[welch]

Two games above .500. No .515, game and a half behind the Phillies.

[Smithian]

This is a good thread

[Slateman]

Either spend big at the deadline to fix the pen or sell everything you can at the deadline

[IanRubbish]

Either spend big at the deadline to fix the pen or sell everything you can at the deadline

On what planet are you living on where you think the penny pinchers who own this operation will "spend big"?

[rileyn]

We flew too close to the sun.